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Disciplined capacity management shaping CNY sea freight

Jan 21, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

As Chinese New Year approaches, sea freight markets from Asia to Europe and the United States are being shaped less by price competition and more by carrier control.

This year’s seasonal peak has arrived earlier than normal, with demand pulled forward and capacity actively withdrawn to protect network balance. While spot rates have eased after a brief pre-holiday lift, this is a short-term, seasonal adjustment rather than a shift in market fundamentals.

Seasonal patterns are moving forward

Historic Chinese New Year patterns place rate peaks two to four weeks before factory shutdowns. This year, those peaks have arrived earlier across all major east–west lanes.

On Asia–Europe routes, rate momentum has advanced by around two weeks, while trans-Pacific trades are peaking three to four weeks ahead of normal.

This shift reflects early shipping activity as exporters accelerated cargo flows into January, compressing the traditional pre-CNY cycle and bringing forward rate support.

Targeted blank sailings tighten supply

Carrier response has been swift and highly targeted. In the five-week window from weeks 04 to 08, carriers have announced 68 blank sailings from approximately 698 scheduled departures, equating to around 10% of planned capacity being withdrawn.

Blankings are concentrated where pressure is greatest:

– 47% on trans-Pacific eastbound services
– 38% on Asia–Europe and Mediterranean routes
– 15% on transatlantic westbound services

Despite these cancellations, around 90% of sailings remain scheduled to operate, underlining that capacity management is selective rather than disruptive.

After six consecutive weeks of gains on Asia–Europe trades leading into a seasonal mini-peak, spot freight rates now sit below early-2025 highs, reinforcing that recent movements reflect timing effects rather than a weakening market.

Reliability and disruption remain constraints

Operational performance continues to limit flexibility. Global on-time performance stands at 47%, down two percentage points month on month, with reliability slipping on both trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe routes.

Winter weather disruption in Europe and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty around key maritime corridors are adding further unpredictability to schedules.

As the market moves through Chinese New Year and into the post-holiday reset, carriers retain the tools to rebalance supply quickly, meaning any near-term easing should be viewed as temporary rather than structural.

Metro’s sea freight team is already modelling Jan/Feb blank sailings and CNY rush patterns, so we can secure space, optimise routings and build contingency plans around your specific flows.

By sharing your forecasts and critical SKUs early, we can ring-fence capacity, minimise disruption and shield you as far as possible from threatened GRIs and last-minute surcharges.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to arrange a strategic review of your ex-Asia shipping patterns and lock in the resilience you need for CNY 2026 and beyond.

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Capacity challenges continue for RoRo and project shipper

Jan 20, 2026 | , , , , ,

Roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) and project cargo shippers are entering a decisive phase, as fleet expansion, industrial investment and energy-driven demand are converging, creating both opportunity and pressure for shippers moving vehicles, machinery and oversized cargo.

The global Pure Car Carrier (PCC) and Pure Car and Truck Carrier (PCTC) fleet is forecast to expand by around 40% over the coming years, with new vessels significantly larger than the ships they replace.

Latest-generation PCTCs are designed to carry 20–30% more car-equivalent units (CEUs) than legacy tonnage, lifting individual vessel capacity into the 9,000+ CEU range. Most new-builds are dual-fuel or alternative-fuel capable and ammonia-ready, reflecting a clear shift towards lower-emission operations.

Despite this expansion, RoRo capacity remains unevenly distributed. Vessel size growth primarily benefits vehicle flows, while availability for high and heavy cargo continues to depend on stowage flexibility, port infrastructure and trade imbalances.

High and heavy manufacturing: volumes steady, costs rising

Shipment trends from major global manufacturers of construction, agricultural and power-generation equipment provide a useful barometer for RoRo and breakbulk demand. While tariff-related costs are rising sharply, shipment volumes in key segments continue to grow.

Construction and forestry equipment shipments recorded year-on-year growth of more than 25% in the most recent quarter, driven by infrastructure spending and large-scale industrial projects. Power-generation equipment volumes also strengthened, with segment revenues rising by around one-third, reflecting accelerating demand from data centres and energy infrastructure.

Order backlogs across the sector have reached record levels, extending visibility well into 2026 and beyond. This supports steady outbound cargo flows, even as manufacturers maintain tight inventory control rather than front-loading production.

Project and breakbulk cargo enters a capacity-sensitive phase

Project and breakbulk shipping is being lifted by sustained growth in energy, metals and mining cargo. Global electricity demand linked to new power generation is forecast to grow at more than 3% per year through 2030, translating directly into increased movements of turbines, generators and transformers.

Fleet growth for heavy-lift capable vessels is projected at an average of just over 4% per year through the end of the decade. While sufficient for smaller and modular cargo, this pace risks falling short during peak periods for large, indivisible units.

Copper and other critical minerals are adding further pressure. Forecasts point to a potential 30% supply shortfall by the mid-2030s, driving investment in mining projects and associated movements of oversized equipment. These cargoes typically require specialised lift planning, crane operations and non-standard stowage.

As RoRo capacity grows by double-digit percentages and project cargo demand rises at a similar pace, the balance increasingly depends on planning, technical expertise and access to the right assets at the right time. 2026 is shaping up as a year where execution, sequencing and specialist capability determine success.

Metro’s dedicated automotive logistics and project shipping teams understand the operational, technical and scheduling complexities of RoRo, breakbulk and heavy-lift movements.

Working with leading global carriers, independent lines and charter operators, Metro helps customers secure reliable capacity, design resilient supply chains and optimise transport from factory gate through to dealer or point of use.

Email Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to discuss how Metro can safeguard your project cargo, vehicle flows and unlock efficiencies across your global logistics operations.

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UK supply chain policy is reshaping shipper risk and resilience

Jan 7, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , ,

Government support for supply chains is increasingly being framed as a matter of national capability rather than short-term intervention. That shift was made explicit in June 2025, when the government’s Modern Industrial Strategy earmarked £600m for logistics sites, signalling that logistics, freight and supply chains are now viewed as strategic economic infrastructure.

Against that backdrop, current support for shippers and manufacturers is delivered through a mix of strategy, guidance and targeted funding, with a clear emphasis on resilience, economic security, clean energy and zero-emission freight rather than generic subsidies.

Strategic focus: critical imports and resilience

The UK Critical Imports and Supply Chains Strategy sets out how government will work with business and international partners across five priorities:

  • Improving supply chain analysis and risk visibility
  • Removing barriers affecting critical imports
  • Strengthening shock-response capability
  • Adapting supply chains to long-term global trends
  • Expanding collaboration with business and academia

The aim is not to control supply chains, but to ensure the UK can anticipate risk, respond faster to disruption and secure access to essential goods.

Practical resilience tools for business

To support this, the Department for Business and Trade has published a Supply Chain Resilience Framework, supported by practical guidance for organisations in both the public and private sectors. The framework focuses on five core areas:

  • Supplier diversification
  • Stock and inventory management
  • On-shoring and near-shoring options
  • Demand management
  • Data quality and supply-chain visibility

As part of the Critical Imports Strategy, government also plans to introduce an online reporting portal for businesses to flag red tape or disruption affecting critical imports, with a commitment to work with industry to remove barriers “wherever possible”.

Supply chains and economic security

The new Supply Chains Centre, based within the Department for Business and Trade, is being established to take a more assertive, strategic and data-led approach to supply-chain security. Its remit includes enhanced analysis, early warning of risks and targeted interventions to ensure continued access to essential goods.

This sits alongside published “Secure your supply chains” guidance, including resilience checklists and links to wider “Safeguarding Supply” resources. Together, these initiatives reflect a broader economic security agenda, where supply chains are treated as critical to both national prosperity and national security.

Innovation funding for resilient supply chains

Public funding is also being directed toward innovation and future-proofing initiatives, including:

  • ReImagining Supply Chains Network Plus (RiSC+), backed by UK Research and Innovation, supporting modelling tools and digital-twin approaches to anticipate disruption across sectors such as food and critical minerals
  • The Circular Critical Materials Supply Chains (CLIMATES) initiative, supporting UK-based supply chains for rare earths and other critical materials through project and partnership funding
  • Regional and sector-specific programmes, often co-funded via the UK Shared Prosperity Fund, offering R&D grants, training and specialist support for SMEs navigating international supply chains

Sector-specific programmes and logistics decarbonisation

Targeted funding is also being directed at strategic sectors. Great British Energy’s “Energy Engineered in the UK” programme includes £1bn of investment into clean-energy supply chains, with a £300m Supply Chain Fund focused on offshore wind and network infrastructure.

In logistics, government support for zero-emission HGVs has expanded, with grants now reducing the upfront cost of electric lorries by up to £120,000. This is designed to accelerate fleet transition, stimulate innovation in green logistics and strengthen the resilience and sustainability of freight supply chains.

What this means for shippers

The policy direction is clear: government expects importers and exporters to map critical dependencies, diversify sourcing and build more robust contingency plans. Resilience, transparency and data quality are no longer optional.

Shippers that can demonstrate strong risk management, clear visibility and close collaboration with carriers and logistics partners will be better positioned to benefit from government-backed initiatives — and to reassure customers operating in increasingly volatile markets.

How Metro can help

Metro works with shippers to translate policy intent into practical supply-chain execution — strengthening routing flexibility, inventory strategy, carrier engagement and contingency planning across ocean, air, road and logistics.

If you’d like support assessing supply-chain resilience, managing disruption risk or aligning your logistics strategy with evolving UK policy priorities EMAIL Managing Director, Andy Smith.

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Asia–Europe peak season meets Chinese New Year

Jan 7, 2026 | , , , , , , , ,

As the Asia–Europe trade moves deeper into peak season, Chinese New Year (CNY) is already reshaping pricing, capacity and execution risk. What was once a predictable seasonal slowdown has become a compressed, high-impact period where demand surges, capacity is tightly managed and disruption risks escalate quickly.

With carriers reporting strong bookings through December, into January and expectations that volumes could remain firm into February, the traditional pre-CNY rush is well underway. 

Although Chinese New Year officially begins on 17 February, with public holidays running from 15 to 23 February, its impact is felt weeks earlier as factories slow production and exporters pull cargo forward.

For Asia–Europe shippers, this creates a narrow and volatile planning window rather than a clearly defined seasonal pause.

Demand strength keeps rates elevated

Underlying demand on the Asia–Europe trade remains robust. Volumes reached nearly 22 million teu by the end of October, representing 8.6% year-on-year growth, giving carriers confidence to defend pricing as peak season converges with CNY planning.

This strength has translated into a fresh round of pricing actions at the start of the year. Peak season surcharges (PSS) and higher freight-all-kinds (FAK) levels are being used to reinforce rate floors as space tightens.

Market benchmarks reflect this momentum. Ahead of Christmas, Drewry’s World Container Index showed:

  • Shanghai–Genoa up 10%
  • Shanghai–Rotterdam up 8%, marking a third consecutive week of gains

Carrier initiatives followed quickly:

  • Maersk introduced a $1,500 per 40ft PSS on Asia–Mediterranean shipments from 5 January
  • CMA CGM applied a $250 per teu PSS on Asia–North Europe alongside new FAK rates from 1 January
  • MSC set new FAK levels of $3,700 per 40ft to North Europe and $5,500 per 40ft to the Mediterranean

Rates remain relatively steady heading into CNY, supported less by demand and disciplined capacity control.

Capacity front-loading raises execution risk

As factories prepare to slow production, carriers are once again turning to blanked sailings to protect utilisation. However, the way capacity is being managed this year marks a clear break from historical patterns.

Analysis from Sea-Intelligence shows that carriers have increasingly front-loaded capacity into late Q4 and early Q1, followed by plans for sharp withdrawals as the holiday approaches. This creates short bursts of intense volume flow, followed by sudden capacity gaps.

For shippers, this shift materially increases the risk of:

  • Rolled cargo
  • Missed cut-offs
  • Port and inland congestion during compressed loading windows

On Asia–Europe specifically:

  • Asia–North Europe has seen the largest absolute capacity expansion, with deployment projected to surge nearly 50% above baseline, reflecting aggressive inventory pull-forward into Europe
  • Asia–Mediterranean shows the greatest percentage volatility, with peak capacity more than 60% above baseline, highlighting heightened disruption risk even on secondary trades

Rather than smoothing demand, blank sailings are now amplifying disruption once volumes peak.

What happens after the holiday?

In the immediate run-up to CNY, pricing is likely to remain supported by strong demand, PSS and constrained capacity. The greater uncertainty lies in the post-holiday period.

Once factories reopen and deferred cargo returns to the market, rate volatility is likely to increase — particularly if demand rebounds faster than carriers reinstate withdrawn sailings. This could result in sudden space shortages, uneven service recovery and renewed congestion on Asia–Europe lanes.

For shippers, the real risk is not confined to the holiday itself, but to the broader six-to-eight-week window around CNY, when schedules, capacity and pricing are most fluid.

Planning priorities for Asia–Europe shippers

As peak season and CNY converge, successful shippers are focusing on:

  • Securing space early rather than chasing spot availability
  • Building contingency routing and sailing options
  • Allowing extra buffer in cut-offs and inland planning
  • Treating CNY as an extended risk period, not a single event

If you are planning ocean freight on the Asia–Europe trade through Chinese New Year and into 2026, Metro’s teams can help you secure space, manage blank-sailing risk and adapt your shipping strategy — so you stay ahead of disruption rather than reacting to it.

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