The Suez strikes back

Suez returns as Middle East shipping risks intensify

Sep 16, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Container lines are restoring services through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, promising shorter Asia–Europe transits and more effective capacity. But the security picture around the Middle East’s critical shipping chokepoints is becoming more complicated, not less.

More Asia–Europe services are returning to Suez after almost three years of widespread diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Yet a successful Houthi land offensive has expanded the group’s control along Yemen’s Red Sea coastline and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to regular container services, conflict continues across the region and alternative Gulf supply chains are operating at significantly higher cost.

For shippers, this is not a straightforward return to normal. It is a more fragmented Middle East shipping environment in which routes can reopen, tighten or change at short notice.

Suez is reopening but the risk has not gone away

Container lines have steadily increased their use of the Red Sea during 2026. Almost a quarter of deep-sea capacity originally diverted around southern Africa has returned to Suez, with around 213,000 TEU of weekly capacity now moving through the waterway.

The shift is particularly advanced between Asia and the Mediterranean. More than a third of September headhaul capacity on this trade is expected to use the Red Sea, compared with around 6% between Asia and North Europe.

That transition is accelerating. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are moving another four Gemini Cooperation services from the Cape route to Suez during September, while other major carriers have also restored selected services.

The attraction is clear. Suez cuts substantial distance from Asia–Europe voyages, shortening transit times and allowing carriers to use vessels more efficiently. A widespread return could ultimately release the equivalent of 8% of global containership capacity currently absorbed by longer Cape routings.

That additional effective capacity is already contributing to softer Asia–Europe pricing, particularly into the Mediterranean.

However, the strategic picture at the southern entrance to the Red Sea has changed.

Recent Houthi advances have extended the group’s territorial control along Yemen’s Red Sea coastline and include Mayyun Island, which sits in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This gives the Houthis an even stronger position around the gateway connecting the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea.

For now, the group has indicated that international traffic can continue unimpeded, with its restrictions focused on Saudi shipping. Container vessels have also largely avoided direct attacks for more than a year, allowing carriers to conclude that selected Red Sea transits are currently viable. 

So Suez normalisation continues. But the underlying vulnerability has arguably increased. The Houthis have retained and potentially strengthened their ability to interfere with traffic through Bab el-Mandeb should their intentions or the wider conflict change.

Shippers forum question the return

That contradiction is causing concern among cargo owners, with The Global Shippers Forum questioning whether carriers are returning too quickly given the continuing instability and the Houthis’ close relationship with Iran.

GSF director James Hookham described the increasing number of Red Sea transits as potentially a “reckless gamble”, arguing that shippers need more information about the security assessments underpinning carriers’ decisions.

Carriers maintain that safety remains the determining factor and that decisions to transit the Red Sea follow extensive security assessments informed by international and regional security organisations, with a commitment to stop transiting if there were indications that container vessels were again being targeted.

The absence of attacks on container ships for more than a year provides some reassurance. But a renewed threat could quickly send services back around the Cape, absorbing vessel capacity and extending transit times. A sudden reversal during the September and October shipping period could also disrupt cargo moving ahead of Black Friday and Christmas.

Further east, the picture is very different

The Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted for container shipping after more than six months of disruption. Container ships have represented only around 6% of recorded inbound and outbound vessel transits during the conflict, with regular liner services largely avoiding the waterway.

Recent developments have added to the uncertainty. Iran has expanded a vessel blacklist that can potentially expose designated ships to fines, detention or confiscation, while vessels involved in transhipment with listed tonnage could also face restrictions.

Attacks on vessels have reinforced the risks, while diplomatic efforts to establish a framework for future shipping through Hormuz have stalled.

For Gulf importers, this has already reshaped supply chains.

Cargo is increasingly using alternative gateways such as Jeddah and Khor al Fakkan before moving overland. Demand for these alternatives has pushed China–Jeddah spot rates around 256% higher than before the conflict, while China–Khor al Fakkan rates have increased almost 480%.

Overland transport is consequently becoming a more important part of regional logistics. Greater use of the TIR trucking system through Iraq is opening additional options for upper Gulf markets, with some journeys between Europe, Turkey, Iraq and the Gulf dramatically reducing transit times compared with disrupted maritime routes.

But landbridges are not a direct substitute for ocean capacity. They add handling, road transport and border requirements, while growing demand is putting pressure on available trucking capacity and costs.

The wider conflict also matters far beyond Middle East cargo. Rising oil and bunker prices have the potential to feed into fuel surcharges and shipping costs across global trade lanes.

For shippers, the question is no longer simply whether a particular route is open. It is how dependable that route will remain, what alternatives exist if conditions change and how quickly cargo can be switched when they do.

Metro monitors carrier networks, regional gateways and changing conditions across the Middle East to identify emerging risks before they reach your supply chain. 

With global ocean freight expertise, alternative routing options and joined-up origin-to-destination management, we can help you balance cost, transit time and resilience, to keep your cargo moving when routes or risk change.

Mundra Port

Container trade stays strong as disruption reshapes east–west markets

Sep 16, 2026 | , , , , ,

Global container trade is proving remarkably resilient, but record volumes mask a more complicated picture across the major east–west trades. Congestion, blank sailings and inland constraints are increasingly determining the conditions shippers experience.

July set a new monthly record for global container shipping, with 17.3 million TEU moved worldwide. Volumes were 4.5% higher than July 2025 and are running 5.1% ahead year to date.

That underlying strength matters. Despite geopolitical disruption, changing tariffs and widespread port delays, international containerised trade continues to grow.

But demand alone does not explain current freight conditions. Carrier capacity management, severe congestion at Asian ports and pressure on destination transport networks are creating increasingly different conditions by trade lane.

East–west markets move apart

The clearest divergence is between Asia–Europe and the transpacific.

Asia–Europe spot rates have continued to soften, with Shanghai–Rotterdam falling another 2% and Shanghai–Genoa 3% in the latest weekly data. The traditional peak appears to have passed, although congestion and blank sailings are preventing a more rapid correction.

Across the Pacific, the picture is very different. Transpacific demand strengthened as the US peak season extended later than initially expected, with west coast volumes rising 9% week on week in early September and east coast volumes increasing 3%.

Rates have consequently remained firm. Shanghai–Los Angeles increased another 2% in the latest week and Shanghai–New York 1%, following larger gains the previous week.

However, demand is only part of the explanation. Carriers are becoming increasingly active in managing available space through blank sailings, vessel rotations and capacity deployment as China’s Golden Week approaches.

Across the major east–west trades, around 11% of scheduled sailings between mid-September and mid-October are currently expected to be cancelled. More than half of those cancellations are concentrated on the eastbound transpacific, with a further third affecting Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean services.

The pace of change is significant. Announced blank sailings for the four weeks leading into Golden Week jumped almost 56% in just one week, and further cancellations remain possible as carriers adjust networks around the Chinese holiday.

The overall level remains manageable, with almost nine in ten scheduled sailings still expected to operate. But the acceleration in cancellations points to a more active phase of capacity management.

For shippers, softer demand will therefore not necessarily translate directly into lower rates or easier access to space. How aggressively carriers remove capacity before Golden Week and how quickly demand returns afterwards could determine the balance between available space and pricing through October.

Congestion is moving through the network

Capacity management is only one part of the east–west picture. Four successive typhoons have left major Chinese ports working through substantial backlogs.

Between early July and late August, almost 5.8 million TEU of vessel capacity arrived more than seven days late at Chinese ports, which is around three times the level recorded before the storms.

The impact on schedule reliability has been dramatic. According to figures from Sea-Intelligence, global reliability fell over 6% in July to 56.4%, its sharpest monthly deterioration in more than five years, while late vessels were arriving an average of over six days behind schedule.

Conditions became particularly challenging on east–west services during the typhoon period. Asia–Europe on-time performance fell to around 10%, while Asia–North America dropped to 23%.

Although congestion is gradually easing, the network has yet to recover fully. The combination of existing backlogs, the pre-Golden Week export push and subsequent factory closures could prolong disruption into October, with bunched vessel arrivals then feeding through to European and North American ports.

That is particularly relevant in the US, where pressure is already building beyond the quayside.

The National Drayage Spot Market Index is 8.2% higher year on year as driver availability, equipment constraints, terminal turn times and appointment availability tighten the market.

Import containers are waiting six to seven days on average for inland transport at some locations and up to 14 days at individual terminals. Pressure has been reported around Los Angeles/Long Beach, Houston, Chicago, Memphis, Savannah and other inland gateways.

For US importers, securing ocean space is therefore only one part of the challenge. Drayage and inland capacity need to be planned earlier, particularly when disrupted schedules result in several vessels and large volumes of cargo arriving within a compressed period.

India disruption continues beyond Mundra strike

The end of the 13-day dispute affecting empty container yards at Mundra has not brought an immediate return to normal operations.

The strike officially ended on 10 September, but Metro’s team in India continues to report around 5,000 containers delayed each day, with empty container flows particularly affected.

The scale of Mundra makes those continuing delays significant. The port accounts for around 35% of India’s container trade, so disruption can quickly affect equipment availability, exports and wider regional supply chains.

The situation also highlights India’s growing importance within international sourcing strategies as businesses diversify their supply chains and increase manufacturing and procurement activity across the subcontinent.

Metro India continues to scale strategically in response. The business is expanding across seven locations, creating a stronger platform for sourcing, consolidation, origin management and exports across the Indian subcontinent.

Overall, ocean markets remains stronger and more complicated than headline rate movements suggest. Global container volumes are setting records, but where carriers deploy capacity, how quickly Asian ports clear backlogs and whether inland networks can absorb arriving cargo will shape conditions through Golden Week and into October.

We may return to examine these developing themes in more detail, as the impact of Golden Week becomes clearer.

Metro combines global ocean freight buying power with local expertise across key origin and destination markets, including our expanding operation in India and established US network. We monitor capacity, blank sailings, port conditions, equipment availability and inland constraints throughout the journey, giving customers the intelligence and routing options to act before disruption reaches their supply chain.

Image: Adapted from The port of Mundra in Gujarat by Felix Dance, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.

factory emissions

EU supply-chain rules may be easing but shipper expectations are changing

Sep 16, 2026 | , , , ,

The EU is reducing some sustainability and due-diligence obligations, but that does not necessarily mean businesses will need less supply-chain information. For shippers, the capabilities of their logistics partners could become increasingly important.

For years, businesses have been preparing for a more demanding era of European supply-chain regulation, with greater emphasis on sustainability, due diligence and visibility beyond their immediate suppliers.

Now Brussels is changing direction. The EU’s Omnibus simplification programme is reducing the scope of some requirements, delaying implementation and cutting the amount of sustainability information companies must report.

For shippers, particularly those outside the revised thresholds, that should reduce the direct administrative burden.

But something important has already changed. Large organisations have invested in systems and processes to understand their supply chains in far greater detail, while sustainability, procurement and logistics teams have become accustomed to collecting information that was rarely requested a decade ago.

Those expectations are unlikely simply to disappear.

Brussels reduces the regulatory burden

The Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) has been substantially scaled back, focusing requirements on the largest businesses (>5,000 employees and net t/o >€1.5bn) and pushing implementation back to July 2029.

Sustainability reporting is also being simplified, with significant reductions in mandatory datapoints intended to lower reporting costs.

Importantly for supply chains, the EU has sought to limit the extent to which large organisations can pass excessive reporting demands down to smaller suppliers.

That should reduce unnecessary bureaucracy, but there is an important distinction between information companies are legally required to collect and the information they choose to obtain to manage risk, sustainability and supply-chain performance.

The demand for supply-chain data is already established

Early sustainability reporting provides an indication of how far corporate practices have already moved.

Deloitte’s analysis of 200 early adopters found particularly extensive reporting among consumer businesses. More than 90% disclosed emissions associated with purchased goods and services, while 94% reported emissions from upstream transport and distribution.

Industrial businesses were also incorporating Scope 3 emissions into climate targets and transition planning.

That matters for logistics because much of the information required to understand those emissions sits outside the shipper's own organisation.

Consider a manufacturer outsourcing European distribution to a freight forwarder. The forwarder may use several regional carriers, which could in turn subcontract individual movements to smaller hauliers.

The shipper may have a commercial relationship with one logistics provider while the physical movement involves several organisations.

Increasingly, businesses want to understand what happens further down that chain.

Which carrier moved the shipment? Which route and transport mode were used? Were subcontractors involved? What emissions were generated? Are appropriate compliance checks in place? Can the underlying information be verified?

Those questions have value beyond regulatory reporting. They can support procurement, corporate governance, customer commitments, risk management and decisions about how supply chains should be designed.

The forwarder's role is changing

This has implications for how shippers select logistics partners.

Price, capacity and service will remain fundamental, but increasingly they may form only part of the assessment, as visibility, data and compliance become more critical.

Price + capacity + service + visibility + data + compliance

A forwarder that can move cargo efficiently but struggles to provide reliable information about the underlying movement may become less attractive to businesses with sophisticated governance or sustainability requirements.

The strongest logistics partners will increasingly connect physical freight management with technology, supplier oversight and usable data.

That changes the forwarder's role from simply arranging transport to helping customers understand and control increasingly complex supply chains.

Better data can support better decisions

There is also a danger that greater transparency simply creates more information. The real value comes when shippers can use that information.

Emissions data provides a good example. Knowing the carbon footprint of an individual shipment supports reporting, but consistent data across modes, routes and origins can also help businesses compare alternatives and identify where operational changes could reduce emissions.

Metro's MVT ECO platform measures CO₂ equivalent emissions at consignment level across transport modes and routes, using recognised logistics emissions methodologies.

This gives customers the ability to examine emissions across their freight activity rather than relying solely on broad estimates, supporting Scope 3 reporting as well as longer-term supply-chain planning.

The same principle applies more broadly: forwarder technology should not simply produce data because somebody has asked for it. It should help shippers make better decisions.

Procurement may move faster than regulation

Perhaps the most important change will therefore come through procurement rather than legislation.

Large businesses do not need regulation to require particular standards from logistics providers. They can incorporate them into RFQs, supplier codes, operating procedures and contracts.

Requirements developed by multinational businesses can then spread through the market as other organisations adopt similar procurement standards.

It means even companies unaffected by CSDDD or CSRD requirements may ultimately benefit from logistics infrastructure originally developed in response to them.

Better carrier governance, reliable emissions measurement, stronger data and improved visibility have operational value whether or not a regulator asks for them.

Choosing logistics partners for what comes next

The EU's simplification programme should make compliance more proportionate for many European businesses.

But reducing regulation does not reverse the broader movement towards more transparent and accountable supply chains.

For shippers, that makes the capabilities sitting behind a freight rate increasingly important.

The forwarders best equipped for the future will not simply provide competitive transport. They will combine networks and operational expertise with the systems, processes and data that give customers greater visibility and control.

For businesses reviewing logistics partners, the question may therefore be shifting from “Can you move our freight?” to “Can you help us understand, control and demonstrate how our freight is moved, while reporting on emissions?”

Metro combines international freight expertise with supply-chain technology and emissions visibility through solutions including MVT ECO, helping customers turn increasingly sophisticated data requirements into practical supply-chain insight.

ULD on tarmac

Air freight market tightens ahead of autumn peak

Sep 2, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Air freight enters the traditional peak-season build-up with a finely balanced market, as capacity reductions and resilient pricing create the potential for rapid tightening when Asian export demand accelerates.

The usual late-September surge may still be several weeks away, but UK importers have good reason to start planning now.

Asia–Europe demand softened during August, yet rates have shown little corresponding weakness. Airlines and freighter operators are adjusting capacity as cargo flows change, while higher fuel costs and stronger demand on alternative trade lanes are providing additional support.

That leaves limited spare capacity to absorb the traditional autumn increase – particularly if ocean freight disruption pushes urgent shipments towards air.

Softer demand is not delivering cheaper capacity

Asia Pacific–Europe chargeable weight fell 5% week on week and 14% year on year in week 33, continuing the softer trend evident since late June.

Changing e-commerce flows have contributed to the decline. China–Europe volumes were 8% lower year on year in week 32, while Hong Kong–Europe traffic fell 29%.

Despite that weakness, Asia Pacific–Europe spot rates remained flat in week 33 after rising 1% the previous week. China was particularly resilient, recording a 6% increase despite lower volumes.

The explanation lies partly on the supply side. Asia Pacific capacity contracted 2% in week 33 after declining 1% the previous week, limiting the downward pressure on rates.

Freighter deployment may tighten the market further. Stronger transpacific demand provides operators with an incentive to allocate aircraft towards the US, potentially reducing the capacity available for European cargo as peak season approaches.

China shows how quickly conditions can change

Recent disruption around Shanghai illustrates the vulnerability of available capacity.

Typhoon Dolphin caused more than 1,000 flight cancellations and contributed to an 8% weekly reduction in chargeable weight from Shanghai, while Shanghai–Europe volumes fell 7%.

The immediate disruption has eased, but severe weather and congestion across Chinese ocean gateways remain relevant to the air freight outlook. When container schedules become unreliable, urgent and time-sensitive cargo can quickly switch from ocean to air.

Even a relatively small modal shift can have a disproportionate effect on air freight capacity and pricing.

Golden Week could mark the turning point

The next significant test comes around China's Golden Week.

Factories traditionally accelerate production before the holiday, followed by another increase as operations resume and backlogs clear. October also brings the start of the main pre-Christmas replenishment cycle.

Demand then typically intensifies through November as retailers and e-commerce businesses prepare for Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas.

This year, however, the market enters that period with capacity already responding closely to demand. That could make the transition from today's relatively balanced conditions to a tighter market particularly rapid.

Fuel costs, severe weather, changing freighter deployment and disruption to ocean services provide additional variables.

The opportunity is before the peak

For shippers, softer August volumes could offer a useful planning window rather than a reason to wait for lower rates.

Businesses with visibility of their autumn requirements can secure allocations earlier, consider alternative origins and gateways, and decide which shipments genuinely require premium air services.

Booking ahead of cargo-ready dates will become increasingly important as demand builds, particularly from China and other major Asian export markets. Flexible routing can also provide valuable alternatives when individual gateways or direct services tighten.

The key consideration is not simply today's air freight rate, but the availability of the right capacity when cargo needs to move.

Metro combines extensive Asian origin coverage with global airline relationships, flexible routing and multiple service levels to keep UK supply chains moving when peak-season capacity tightens. 

Share your autumn forecasts with Metro now and we can secure the capacity, routing and service strategy your cargo needs before the peak takes hold.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director.

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