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Peak season survey reveals cautious confidence as demand strengthens

Aug 5, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Metro's Q3/26 Peak Season Survey suggests businesses are entering the second half of the year with growing confidence, despite ongoing uncertainty across global supply chains.

While current shipping volumes remain mixed, the outlook for the next three months is positive. More than three-quarters of respondents expect shipping volumes to either increase or remain stable, with no respondents anticipating a decline. 

The findings indicate that businesses are continuing to adapt to market disruption, focusing on flexibility, resilience and proactive supply chain planning rather than waiting for conditions to return to normal.

Demand is being driven by real business growth

Unlike previous peak seasons, where activity was often influenced by front-loading or supply chain disruption, this year's demand appears to be supported by underlying market conditions.

Half of respondents identified genuine customer demand as the primary driver of shipping activity, while 37.5% pointed to inventory replenishment and restocking. Only 12.5% believed customers were bringing orders forward, and the same proportion cited carrier actions creating tighter supply. No respondents believed an earlier-than-usual seasonal peak was driving demand. 

Current shipping volumes remain varied. While 37.5% reported moderately higher volumes than the same period last year and 12.5% reported increases of more than 20%, an equal 37.5% said volumes were lower than a year ago. 

Looking ahead, confidence remains encouraging.

A quarter of respondents expect shipping volumes to increase significantly over the next three months, while 37.5% anticipate a slight increase and a further 37.5% expect volumes to remain stable. Significantly, none of those surveyed expect demand to decline during the remainder of the peak season. 

The results suggest businesses are planning for sustained activity rather than a short-lived seasonal spike.

Peak season has already begun

Three-quarters of respondents believe the traditional peak shipping season is already well underway, while only 12.5% believe it has yet to begin. A further 12.5% remain unsure. 

This reflects the continued resilience of international trade despite geopolitical tensions, longer shipping routes and higher transport costs.

However, an early start does not necessarily mean peak season will finish early. Over the past three years, an earlier summer peak has typically been followed by a second, smaller surge in demand during the fourth quarter, bookended by Golden Week in early October and the build-up to Chinese New Year. Many shippers are therefore planning for sustained demand through the remainder of 2026 rather than a single seasonal spike.

Red Sea transits remain under close review

As container carriers continue trial transits through the Suez Canal and Red Sea, businesses are monitoring developments carefully.

Three-quarters of respondents were already aware of the resumed transits. However, only a minority have fully reviewed their cargo insurance arrangements. Instead, 62.5% said insurance reviews are currently underway, while 25% have yet to assess whether their existing cover is suitable for regular Red Sea transits. 

The findings suggest confidence in the route is improving, but these results came before the recent Houthi attacks, so risk management remains a priority.

Flexibility is becoming the preferred strategy

Businesses are responding to market conditions by adapting existing supply chains rather than making wholesale changes to transport modes.

The most common response (37.5%) has been to alter shipping routes while maintaining the same mode of transport. Another 25% are considering alternative transport solutions if conditions deteriorate further, while 12.5% have already introduced sea-air services and a further 12.5% have switched some shipments to road transport. Meanwhile, 37.5% have not changed their transport strategy. 

Among those making changes, every respondent (100%) cited long transit times as the primary reason, with vessel capacity and port congestion receiving no responses. 

Agility is becoming more important than storage

When asked about warehousing priorities, 83.3% of respondents identified flexible transport alternatives as their greatest requirement, compared with 33.3% who highlighted low-cost short-term storage solutions. 

The findings suggest businesses are placing greater emphasis on maintaining supply chain agility than simply increasing storage capacity.

What the survey tells us

The results paint the picture of a market that remains resilient despite continued disruption.

Demand is being driven primarily by genuine customer activity rather than precautionary ordering, businesses are broadly optimistic about shipping volumes over the coming months, and most believe peak season is already underway.

At the same time, companies continue to manage risk carefully. Red Sea insurance arrangements are being reviewed, alternative routing remains under consideration, and flexibility has become a higher priority than simply securing additional warehouse space.

As peak season develops, Metro can help keep your supply chain agile. We'll review your transport strategy, identify opportunities to improve resilience and help you respond quickly to changing market conditions while maintaining service levels and controlling costs.

We’d be interested in your views too. EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith

currency screen

Sterling strengthens against the US dollar; what it means for importers and exporters

Aug 5, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The pound has been strengthening against the US dollar, improving sterling buying power for many UK businesses purchasing goods and services priced in dollars.

For importers, that's welcome news. A stronger pound can reduce the sterling cost of overseas purchases, international freight, fuel and other dollar-linked expenses. However, exchange rates are only one part of the equation.

The recent rise in GBP/USD has been driven largely by a weaker US dollar rather than a dramatic improvement in the UK economy.

Several factors have combined to support sterling:

Markets expect US interest rates to fall

Investors increasingly believe the US Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates sooner than previously expected as economic growth moderates.

Lower interest rates generally make the dollar less attractive to investors, reducing demand for the currency.

The Bank of England remains more cautious

Although UK growth remains subdued, inflation—particularly in wages and services—continues to influence Bank of England policy.

With UK interest rates expected to remain higher for longer than US rates, sterling has become relatively more attractive.

Investors are taking less defensive positions

During periods of global uncertainty, investors typically move money into the US dollar because it is viewed as a safe-haven currency.

As market sentiment has improved, some of that demand has eased, allowing sterling to recover.

The UK economy has proved more resilient than expected

Economic growth remains modest, but the UK has avoided some of the more severe downturns previously anticipated.

That has helped maintain confidence in sterling despite ongoing economic challenges.

Yet, the pound could weaken again

Foreign exchange markets can move quickly and remain highly sensitive to:

  • US employment figures
  • Inflation data
  • Federal Reserve and Bank of England announcements
  • Geopolitical events
  • Changes in investor confidence

Exchange rates can reverse rapidly as market expectations change.

What this means for your business

For companies involved in international trade, a stronger pound creates opportunities, but also some important considerations.

Purchasing goods in US dollars

If your suppliers invoice in US dollars, sterling now buys more dollars than it did only a few weeks ago.

This can reduce the cost of imported products, raw materials and overseas services.

However, savings may not appear immediately if:

  • purchases are already hedged
  • contracts are fixed at earlier exchange rates
  • suppliers review prices only periodically

Freight and fuel costs

Many international transport costs are linked directly or indirectly to the US dollar.

These include:

  • ocean freight
  • air freight
  • bunker fuel
  • aviation fuel
  • fuel surcharges
  • equipment charges

A stronger pound can reduce these costs in sterling terms.

However, exchange-rate gains can easily be offset by rising oil prices, emergency carrier surcharges or changes in freight market capacity.

Export revenues

Businesses selling into dollar markets face the opposite effect.

Each dollar of revenue converts into fewer pounds when sterling strengthens, potentially reducing margins unless prices are adjusted or currency exposure is managed.

Budgeting and pricing

Periods of exchange-rate movement are a good opportunity to review:

  • customer pricing
  • freight assumptions
  • tender calculations
  • landed-cost models
  • cost recovery mechanisms

Rather than relying on a single exchange-rate assumption, businesses should consider a range of scenarios when preparing longer-term quotations or contracts.

Practical steps to consider

Businesses with significant US dollar exposure should consider:

  • Reviewing how much of their purchasing and sales activity is linked to the US dollar.
  • Checking whether pricing mechanisms reflect current exchange-rate movements.
  • Understanding whether freight costs are based on spot exchange rates, fixed pricing or published conversion indices.
  • Considering hedging or fixed-rate arrangements where currency exposure is significant and predictable.
  • Regularly updating budgets and tenders to reflect changing market conditions rather than relying on outdated assumptions.

Understanding how changing exchange rates could affect your freight costs or supply chain. Metro's finance experts can help you assess the wider logistics impact and identify opportunities to improve cost control across your international shipments.

EMAIL Laurence Burford, Chief Financial Officer.

Hormuz satellite

Middle East conflict is reshaping global shipping once again

Jul 22, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea is facing renewed disruption with 14 Iranian attacks on vessels since June 25th, the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and a Houthi threat to target Saudi-linked shipping in the Bab al-Mandab.

The tanker Kavomaleas, initially reported on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, has since been confirmed as the target of an attack on Monday. Its crew abandoned the vessel, which remained adrift and on fire. UK Maritime Trade Operations also reported that another tanker in the Strait’s southern transit corridor had been attacked and set alight, with its crew also abandoning ship.

These incidents have further weakened confidence in the safety of the Strait, which has historically carried around one fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas.

Traffic has fallen sharply during the latest period of escalation, with only six vessels crossing the Strait in a day, the lowest level in five weeks, while hundreds remained at anchor outside the waterway.

For shippers, the concern extends well beyond regional security. Rising fuel costs, higher insurance premiums, longer voyage times and reduced network capacity all have the potential to increase transport costs and reduce schedule reliability across global supply chains.

Hormuz remains the world's most important energy chokepoint

The attacks on Kavomaleas and a second tanker follows earlier incidents in July involving three vessels, including a Qatari-flagged LNG carrier.

Iran subsequently accused vessels of transiting without its permission, using its interpretation of the MoU agreement to assert control over passage through the Strait.

While the United States insists the waterway remains open to commercial traffic and has deployed a naval blockade, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threat to execute attacks on unauthorised vessels cannot be ignored.

The impact extends far beyond the Gulf itself. Because such a significant proportion of the world's crude oil and LNG exports move through Hormuz, even relatively limited disruption can trigger sharp movements in energy markets as traders price in the risk of prolonged restrictions.

Brent crude briefly climbed above US$90 per barrel following the latest escalation, increasing expectations of higher bunker costs and transport surcharges across both ocean and air freight markets.

Red Sea uncertainty threatens container shipping

While Hormuz is primarily an energy concern, the Red Sea remains critical to global container shipping.

Recent threats to Saudi-linked shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait have renewed concerns that carriers may once again reduce Red Sea transits or suspend recently restored Suez services.

Maersk recently returned its Gemini AE15 service to the Suez route and planned to add Jeddah from August. Its MECL service also calls at the port.

CMA CGM operates several Asia-Europe services through Suez. Recent schedules show some Jeddah calls omitted on the MEX and BEX2 services, although not all calls have been removed.

Should security risks increase again, those services could once more be rerouted around southern Africa.

Such diversions add thousands of nautical miles to Asia-Europe voyages, increasing fuel consumption, extending transit times and reducing the effective capacity of the global container fleet. Even though no vessels are removed from service, longer round voyages mean fewer sailings can be completed each year, tightening capacity and placing upward pressure on freight rates.

Marine insurance remains available for vessels transiting the Gulf, but at substantially higher prices.

War risk hull premiums reportedly stood at a fraction of 1% of insured vessel value before the crisis began in February. They have since risen to between 3% and 10%.

For a tanker valued at US$100 million, this could increase the premium for a single transit from around US$250,000 to as much as US$10 million.

The Lloyd’s Market Association has stated that the decline in traffic is not primarily the result of insurance being unavailable. It said owners are choosing not to transit because of safety concerns.

These costs ultimately feed through to supply chains via emergency surcharges, bunker adjustment factors and higher freight rates.

Although neither the Strait of Hormuz nor the Red Sea is theoretically closed, commercial conditions remain highly fluid.

Container carriers continue to review sailing schedules, tanker operators are assessing voyage risks on a daily basis and insurance markets remain volatile. Further attacks or additional security measures could quickly alter routing decisions across both regions.

Visibility turns uncertainty into control

Geopolitical events cannot be prevented, but their impact can be managed with real-time visibility and timely data.

Metro combines global freight expertise with advanced digital visibility through our MVT platform, providing customers with real-time shipment tracking down to SKU level across all transport modes. Metro helps businesses identify disruption early, make informed decisions and keep products flowing through increasingly complex global supply chains.

To learn how Metro can strengthen the resilience and visibility of your international supply chain, EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith today.

Trade handshake

UK trade deals open new opportunities

Jul 22, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The UK's trade agenda continues to gather momentum, creating new opportunities for businesses trading internationally, while reshaping the way they access global markets. 

The most recent agreements with major trading partners across Asia-Pacific, the Gulf, North America and Europe have expanded market access, reduced tariffs and strengthened supply chain resilience.

For UK businesses, these agreements represent far more than diplomatic milestones. They offer practical commercial advantages, from lower export costs and simplified market access to stronger supply chains and improved regulatory cooperation. While some negotiations remain ongoing, the overall direction is clear: the UK is building an increasingly diverse portfolio of international trading relationships that extends well beyond traditional European markets. 

UK-EU relations continue to evolve

Although the planned UK-EU summit scheduled for July has been postponed following the change in UK political leadership, negotiations have continued behind the scenes.

Officials are progressing work on the mandatory five-year review of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), alongside wider discussions aimed at improving the trading relationship.

Several areas could deliver tangible benefits for businesses. Negotiations on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards are intended to reduce border checks on food and agricultural exports, while discussions continue around linking UK and EU emissions trading systems, cooperation on electricity infrastructure and broader regulatory alignment.

While no major changes have yet been agreed, businesses trading with Europe should continue to monitor developments, as incremental improvements to customs procedures and border processes could reduce friction for many exporters over the coming months.

CPTPP becomes a reality for UK exporters

One of the most significant developments has been Mexico's ratification of the UK's accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on 22 June 2026.

With Canada expected to complete implementation in September, UK businesses will soon benefit from preferential access across all twelve CPTPP member economies, creating one of the world's largest free trade areas spanning Asia-Pacific, North America and Latin America.

Collectively, CPTPP countries account for around 15% of global GDP and more than 500 million consumers. For exporters, the agreement opens new opportunities across manufacturing, consumer goods, food and drink, automotive, technology and professional services, while giving businesses greater flexibility to diversify international supply chains beyond traditional markets.

Gulf agreement strengthens access to a fast-growing region

May’s new Free Trade Agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) represents another important step in expanding Britain's global trading relationships.

Covering Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the agreement is expected to remove hundreds of millions of pounds in annual tariffs on British exports once fully implemented.

Products including food, beverages and consumer goods are expected to benefit from lower duties, while wider provisions covering digital trade, investment and business mobility should make it easier for UK companies to establish and grow commercial operations throughout the Gulf.

For businesses already trading with the Middle East, the agreement offers greater certainty at a time when the region continues to play an increasingly important role in global logistics and supply chains.

Switzerland opens new opportunities for UK exporters

The UK's latest agreement with Switzerland further expands opportunities for British exporters, particularly across agriculture and food production.

The new Free Trade Agreement removes or reduces tariffs on a wide range of British agricultural exports, including lamb, vegetables, dairy products, beef and sparkling wine, while also strengthening services trade between the two countries.

The agreement, which was finalised on 13 July is expected to increase bilateral trade by more than £7 billion annually, reinforcing Switzerland's importance as one of the UK's highest-value trading partners.

UK-US cooperation goes beyond tariffs

The UK and United States continue to strengthen their trading relationship through pharmaceutical supply chain agreement signed at the end of 2025.

The arrangement protects more than £5 billion of annual UK pharmaceutical exports from tariffs while creating closer cooperation on medicine availability, manufacturing resilience and regulatory alignment.

Beyond the life sciences sector, the agreement demonstrates a growing emphasis on supply chain resilience rather than simply reducing tariffs. Greater cooperation on trusted sourcing, manufacturing capacity and regulatory processes reflects the increasing importance governments are placing on securing critical supply chains in strategically important industries.

Turning opportunity into competitive advantage

Securing a trade agreement is only the first step. Real commercial success depends on understanding customs requirements, managing international logistics and building resilient supply chains capable of supporting long-term growth.

Metro helps businesses take full advantage of emerging global trade opportunities through integrated freight forwarding, customs expertise and end-to-end supply chain management. Whether you're looking at new sourcing options or expanding into Europe, North America, the Gulf or the Asia-Pacific region, our global network and local specialists help simplify international trade while reducing cost, risk and complexity.

To discover how Metro can help your business unlock new international trading opportunities, EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith today.

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