US trucks at port

Transpacific pressure shifts from ocean rates to inland costs

Sep 30, 2026 | ,

Transpacific shippers are entering October with ocean freight rates close to pandemic-era highs, continuing schedule disruption and a new cost pressure emerging after US diesel prices climbed sharply.

The market may finally be approaching a turning point after five months of rising transpacific rates, as China's Golden Week brings the traditional peak shipping period towards a close.

However, any correction is unlikely to remove the challenges facing shippers immediately. Carriers continue to actively manage capacity, schedule reliability remains under pressure and rapidly rising US diesel costs are feeding directly into inland transport surcharges.

Ocean rates approach historic highs

The scale of the transpacific increase has been exceptional. By 17 September, average Far East–US West Coast spot rates had risen 324% since late February, while East Coast rates were 325% higher. That left rates just 18% and 11% respectively below their pandemic-era records.

The East Coast has experienced particularly strong pressure, while carriers have responded by adding capacity. Offered Far East–US East Coast capacity increased by around 6–7% between August and September as shipping lines sought to take advantage of elevated demand and pricing.

That additional capacity could help moderate the market as the pre-Golden Week cargo rush ends.

There are already tentative signs of a change. The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index recorded a 1% decline on both US coast trades in its latest reading, potentially ending a five-month upward run.

Whether that develops into a sustained correction will depend partly on how carriers manage capacity as seasonal demand falls.

Blank sailings keep capacity tight

Shipping lines still have considerable scope to adjust available space. Across the major East–West trades, 58 of 712 scheduled sailings are expected to be cancelled between weeks 40 and 44, an 8% cancellation rate. Almost two-thirds of those blank sailings are concentrated on the eastbound transpacific.

Capacity is therefore only part of the challenge. Vessel utilisation on the eastbound transpacific has been running approximately 8% above pre-pandemic levels, while congestion and blank sailings have contributed to deteriorating schedule reliability.

Shippers can consequently secure space but still encounter rollovers or delayed departures. Where a booking rollover combines with a late vessel, delays can approach two weeks.

While congestion at Chinese ports has started to improve from its early September peak, some of that pressure has shifted into Southeast Asia, adding another source of potential disruption to vessel rotations.

Attention turns to US inland costs

At destination, another significant cost pressure is emerging. US diesel prices reached a national average of $6.53 per gallon on 21 September, rising more than 24 cents in a week and $2.78 compared with the same period last year.

The immediate effect is being felt through fuel surcharges rather than a sudden increase in underlying freight demand.

Industry estimates suggest higher fuel costs have increased truckload costs by approximately 25–30% since the beginning of the year, with total less-than-truckload shipment costs around 20% higher.

Regional differences also matter. West Coast diesel averaged $7.46 per gallon compared with $6.27 on the East Coast, creating potentially significant differences in the fuel component of inland transportation costs.

Spot trucking may take longer to adjust. Historically, spot rates require three to four weeks to catch up with rapid diesel increases, putting additional pressure on smaller carriers that cannot immediately recover higher fuel expenditure.

If that forces capacity from the market, shippers could face higher trucking costs even without a major increase in freight volumes.

A changing transpacific market

October could therefore mark a change in the transpacific market rather than an immediate return to normal conditions.

The end of the traditional peak and additional vessel capacity provide some scope for ocean freight rates to soften. But blank sailings give carriers the ability to respond to falling demand, while unreliable schedules continue to complicate shipment planning.

At the same time, the cost challenge is increasingly extending beyond the port.

For shippers, monitoring the complete Asia–US movement, including available sailings, schedule reliability, port choice, inland routing and fuel surcharges, will remain important as the market moves beyond peak season.

Metro's global carrier relationships, US office footprint and extensive US logistics capabilities give our teams visibility across the complete transpacific movement. 

From origin through to destination and inland delivery we can assess alternative carriers, services, gateways and routings while coordinating US transport requirements, to help customers respond to changing capacity, schedules and costs.

Talk to Metro about your upcoming transpacific movements and the options available to protect capacity, transit time and total landed cost.

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US importers face a new era of customs scrutiny

Sep 16, 2026 | ,

US import compliance is becoming more demanding, with Customs and Border Protection strengthening enforcement, scrutinising importer data and using technology to examine transactions long after goods have cleared the border.

From 18 September, inaccurate information held by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) could result in an Importer of Record (IOR) losing the right to bring goods into the country.

The change may sound administrative, but its implications go much further. CBP is comprehensively reviewing importer records, while wider enforcement reforms are placing greater responsibility on businesses to demonstrate the accuracy of classifications, valuations, origins and sourcing decisions.

For importers already managing changing tariffs, suppliers and sourcing strategies, compliance increasingly needs to begin before cargo leaves origin and continue long after it arrives.

Importer responsibility starts before shipment

Under the new requirements, CBP can revoke import privileges when IOR information is inaccurate. That includes fundamental information such as physical addresses, telephone numbers and email addresses.

Crucially, responsibility remains with the importer even when a customs broker submits the information. Importers must ensure their records are correct when initially filed and remain accurate afterwards.

That principle extends across the customs process and cargo release does not necessarily mean CBP has accepted an entry as correct. Entries can remain subject to review during the 314-day liquidation process, while importers must retain supporting records for five years.

CBP is also becoming better equipped to identify inconsistencies. Investment in technology and AI means customs authorities can examine patterns across an importer’s history rather than treating every shipment in isolation.

That matters as businesses respond to tariff changes by switching suppliers, changing sourcing countries, restructuring transactions or altering declared values.

A legitimate commercial change can still attract attention if the customs data suddenly looks different. Importers therefore need records that demonstrate not only what changed, but why.

Relying solely on information supplied by overseas vendors or assuming a customs broker carries the compliance responsibility creates unnecessary exposure.

Importers should instead have visibility of the transaction before shipment, checking purchase orders, commercial invoices, quantities, product classifications, declared values and country of origin while there is still time to resolve discrepancies.

Broker oversight is equally important. Regularly reviewing customs entries against underlying commercial data can identify inconsistencies before they develop into a wider compliance problem.

CBP wants visibility deeper into the supply chain

The direction of travel suggests these requirements could become more extensive. CBP is consulting on proposals that could require importers to retain or submit overseas customs documentation, potentially including foreign customs entries, commercial invoices, packing lists and bills of lading.

It is also considering deeper disclosure of the upstream inputs and parties involved in producing foreign-sourced goods. Existing manufacturer information does not always provide the visibility CBP wants for enforcement purposes.

Taken together, the changes point towards a more data-led compliance environment in which CBP can compare US declarations with overseas documentation, supply-chain information and an importer’s historic trading patterns.

For US importers, several priorities follow: keep IOR contact and registration information current; validate classification, valuation and origin before shipment; retain the evidence supporting customs decisions; monitor brokers rather than simply delegating responsibility; and investigate unusual changes in customs data before CBP does.

Established practices also deserve scrutiny. “We’ve always done it this way” is increasingly difficult to defend when CBP can examine years of transaction history and ask for evidence that reasonable care was taken.

Compliance is therefore becoming an end-to-end supply-chain requirement rather than something addressed when cargo reaches the US border.

Metro combines international freight management with experienced US customs brokerage and compliance support, giving importers greater visibility and control from origin through clearance and beyond. 

We can help you validate shipment data, strengthen customs processes and identify potential compliance issues before they put your cargo, or your ability to import, at risk.

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Transpacific capacity tightens as Panama restrictions reshape the market

Sep 2, 2026 | , ,

Strong US import demand, reduced vessel capacity and tighter Panama Canal restrictions are keeping transpacific shipping under pressure, with East Coast services facing particular constraints as September approaches.

The transpacific market remains significantly firmer than Asia–Europe, despite signs that the recent rise in spot rates may be levelling off.

After several weeks of increases, Shanghai–New York spot rates slipped 2% in the latest Drewry World Container Index, while Shanghai–Los Angeles remained flat. Freightos recorded a different picture, with East Coast rates rising 3% and West Coast rates 1%. 

The differing indices underline the uncertainty surrounding the market rather than signalling a clear reversal. Rates remain substantially above levels seen three months ago, supported by resilient demand, constrained capacity and growing operational pressure around the Panama Canal.

Peak season demand remains resilient

An unusually early transpacific peak began in late May as US importers accelerated shipments from Asia, initially in response to tariff uncertainty and subsequently supported by continued demand.

China–US volumes fell 12% in the first quarter before surging 22% in Q2, with much of that rebound concentrated in April and May. US import forecasts suggest volumes could remain relatively firm through September before easing in October. 

Capacity has tightened at the same time. August capacity fell 9% month on month on Asia–US East Coast services, while carriers have continued using blank sailings to manage supply.

Congestion at Asian ports following successive typhoons has added further pressure, disrupting schedules and reducing the effective capacity available to shippers.

Panama compounds the East Coast squeeze

The Panama Canal is emerging as another important factor for Asia–US trade.

From early September, lower permitted draughts and fewer daily transits are expected to restrict the amount of cargo vessels can carry through the canal. Analysis of July movements suggests around 45% of Neopanamax transits could be affected by the new draught limits, representing approximately 55% of nominal container capacity using the larger locks. 

Initially, this may mean vessels carrying less cargo rather than carriers withdrawing ships. However, fewer daily transit slots could increase queues and delays while reducing the effective capacity available to East Coast services.

If restrictions become more severe, carriers could divert some Asia–US East Coast services around the Cape of Good Hope. That would add approximately 30% to transit times and tie up vessels for longer, tightening capacity elsewhere in the network.

West Coast gateways could gain cargo

Panama restrictions may also change how importers route US-bound cargo.

Some Asia-origin shipments normally moving through the canal to East Coast gateways could switch to Los Angeles, Long Beach and other West Coast ports, followed by rail or intermodal transport inland.

US intermodal volumes are already increasing as shippers respond to tight truckload capacity and higher road freight costs. Domestic container volumes grew 7.4% year on year during the first half, while international container volumes returned to growth in July. 

Rail networks currently appear to have capacity to absorb additional traffic, although localised pressure is emerging at some ports and railheads. A sustained transfer of transpacific cargo towards the West Coast could increase pressure on terminal appointments, chassis availability and inland connections during September.

Elevated conditions may persist into September

The immediate outlook remains finely balanced.

Strong transpacific demand contrasts sharply with Asia–Europe, where rates have declined for seven consecutive weeks. On the Pacific, however, capacity management, Asian port congestion and Panama restrictions provide continuing support for the market.

The latest pause in rate growth may therefore prove temporary rather than marking the end of peak-season pressure.

For shippers, the more important issue is increasingly where usable capacity will be available. East Coast constraints could favour West Coast routings, but shifting cargo west creates different inland transport requirements and potential congestion risks.

Early booking, additional lead time and the ability to switch gateways, routings and inland modes will be increasingly important as these pressures develop.

NOTICE: Transatlantic carriers push for September rate increases

Carriers are seeking to strengthen westbound transatlantic rates in September, despite softer demand between Europe and North America.

North Europe–US volumes fell 2.6% year on year in July, following a 5.5% decline in June, while Mediterranean–US volumes dropped 1.9%. In response, carriers reduced Europe–North America capacity by almost 9% during August, with a further 9% reduction expected on North Europe services in September.

Several carriers have now introduced peak-season surcharges and general rate increases, alongside higher European inland fuel and intermodal charges. With demand providing limited support, their success will depend on capacity discipline and shipper acceptance.

Metro connects an extensive Asian network with established operations across the United States, giving shippers access to alternative gateways, routings and inland solutions as capacity shifts. 

By considering ocean, port and inland costs together, we can identify the route that protects your supply chain and total landed cost and move with the market when conditions change.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director.

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US tariff uncertainty is becoming a permanent supply chain challenge

Aug 19, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

US importers face another period of significant trade policy change as the Trump administration expands its use of tariffs across countries, commodities and industries.

The immediate challenge is understanding which measures apply and how they interact. The wider issue is more fundamental: Section 301 is developing into a broad mechanism for imposing additional tariffs, while stricter customs enforcement increases the financial consequences of getting classification, valuation or origin wrong.

For importers, tariff exposure can no longer be treated as a temporary disruption. It increasingly needs to form part of sourcing, landed-cost and customs compliance decisions.

New tariffs broaden importer exposure

The latest changes follow the expiry of temporary Section 122 tariffs introduced in February 2026 after the Supreme Court overturned the administration’s earlier use of emergency powers for its ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.

On 24 July, the administration introduced new tariffs on 59 countries and the European Union following a Section 301 investigation into goods allegedly produced using forced labour. The measures effectively restored a 10%–12% minimum tariff across economies responsible for around 99% of US imports, although significant product exemptions remain.

The UK was placed in the 10% group rather than the 12.5% tier applied to many other countries. There are product-specific exemptions under the UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal, so the 10% does not apply universally.

UK automotive exports benefit from a 10% tariff within the agreed 100,000-vehicle quota, aerospace goods have preferential treatment, and UK pharmaceutical exports secured 0% tariffs in April 2026. Different Section 232 or other measures can also apply depending on the commodity.

These duties can also stack on top of existing measures, helping push the estimated overall US effective tariff rate to approximately 10.8%.

Some individual measures go considerably further. Selected Brazilian goods face additional tariffs of 25%, while certain Canadian products have been targeted with duties of 50%. From 31 July, some pharmaceutical imports also became subject to tariffs reaching 100%.

More measures could follow. An investigation into excess industrial capacity covers 16 economies, including China, India, Japan and the EU, while further action targeting digital policies and specific industries remains possible.

The near-term outlook therefore points towards continued volatility rather than simplification. Importers should expect tariffs to change by country, product and policy objective, making total landed-cost calculations increasingly important when comparing suppliers and sourcing locations.

Enforcement raises the cost of getting customs wrong

Tariffs are only one part of the financial exposure. US Customs and Border Protection is also moving towards more aggressive enforcement.

Importers face increased scrutiny of the three areas fundamental to duty assessment: tariff classification, customs valuation and country of origin. Errors can result not only in additional duty assessments but potentially penalties where authorities believe tariffs have been avoided.

The scope for mitigating penalties may also be narrowing. Industry analysis indicates that reductions which historically could reach 90% are becoming less readily available, with mitigation potentially limited to around 50% for trusted traders able to demonstrate effective written controls and robust compliance procedures.

This makes customs governance increasingly important. Importers should review classifications, origin determinations and valuation methodologies before goods arrive rather than relying on retrospective corrections.

Procurement contracts also deserve attention. Businesses may need clearer provisions determining which party absorbs new tariffs and what happens if government action materially changes the economics of an existing sourcing agreement.

Tariffs are likely to remain part of the landscape

Legal challenges continue, including action involving 25 US states, but importers should be cautious about building their strategy around the prospect of tariffs disappearing.

Section 301 has expanded well beyond its previous association with China and is increasingly being used across different countries and policy objectives. Further investigations are expected, suggesting additional tariff announcements remain possible.

Even successful legal challenges may not deliver lasting certainty if the administration replaces overturned measures using alternative statutory authority.

For importers, this changes the emphasis from reacting to individual tariff announcements to building greater resilience into customs and sourcing strategies. That means modelling landed costs under different tariff scenarios, reviewing alternative origins and suppliers, maintaining accurate customs data and identifying opportunities to use legitimate duty-management mechanisms.

Metro’s growing US footprint combined with customs brokerage capability at every US gateway gives importers the support they need as tariff and enforcement requirements become more complex. Our teams can review classification, valuation, origin and duty exposure before cargo moves, identify potential customs risks and help you understand how changing tariffs affect your true landed cost.

With US trade policy changing quickly, don’t wait for a new tariff or customs intervention to expose a problem. Talk to Metro now about reviewing your imports, customs compliance and duty exposure. EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith.

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