Ningbo

Asia–Europe freight rates rebound as carriers tighten capacity

Oct 27, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Ocean freight rates on Asia–Europe trades are rising again after months of downward pressure, but contrasting market indicators and increasing blank sailings suggest the recovery is being driven as much by carrier capacity management as underlying cargo demand.

The Asia–Europe container market has entered a new phase of price volatility, with shipping lines attempting to strengthen freight rates ahead of November and the approaching annual contract negotiation season.

After an extended period of softening spot rates, October has delivered two consecutive weeks of increases. However, the recovery remains uneven, with conflicting freight indexes and relatively subdued demand raising questions about whether higher prices can be sustained.

For shippers, the immediate challenge is distinguishing between genuine market tightening and temporary price movements created by changes to available capacity.

Spot rates reverse their downward trend

Drewry's World Container Index recorded a 6% increase on Shanghai–Rotterdam and a 7% rise on Shanghai–Genoa in mid-October, reversing several weeks of declining prices. 

The recovery continued into the following week, with Shanghai–Rotterdam increasing another 3% and Shanghai–Genoa rising 5% in the assessment published on 22 October.

Across the two weeks, this represents cumulative increases of approximately 9% and 12% respectively.

The broader Drewry index increased 2% in the latest assessment, reflecting firmer pricing across several major east–west trades.

However, not every benchmark supports the same interpretation and while Drewry recorded rising Asia–Europe rates in mid-October, another freight index reported a 7% decline on Asia–North Europe.

Different methodologies, reporting periods and underlying transactions explain some of the divergence, but the contrasting readings reinforce the absence of a consistent recovery across the market.

Shipping lines withdraw capacity to support prices

With demand showing limited signs of significant acceleration, carriers are turning increasingly to capacity management.

Drewry reported eight blank sailings scheduled on Asia–Europe services for the week beginning 26 October, compared with two the preceding week.

The broader outlook confirms that capacity adjustments will continue through November.

Across the major east–west trades, 56 sailings are expected to be cancelled between weeks 44 and 48, representing approximately 8% of the 714 scheduled departures.

Asia–Europe and Mediterranean services account for 54% of these cancellations, making them the principal focus of carrier capacity management.

Although 92% of scheduled services are still expected to operate, cancellations can have a disproportionate effect on individual departure weeks, ports and carrier networks.

For shippers, this creates a familiar contradiction: substantial overall vessel capacity alongside restricted availability on particular services.

Blank sailings can also concentrate cargo onto fewer vessels, increasing the risk of rollovers and schedule disruption.

November rate increases face a demand test

Alongside withdrawing capacity, shipping lines are introducing higher Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates.

New pricing announced for mid-October targeted increases across North Europe and Mediterranean destinations, although some offers were subsequently revised downwards.

Further increases have been announced for 1 November, with Mediterranean targets generally higher than those for North Europe.

Shipping lines are attempting to establish firmer pricing ahead of annual contract discussions, but without a sustained increase in cargo volumes, higher rates may prove difficult to maintain.

The coming weeks will therefore test whether capacity withdrawals can support the recovery or whether additional available space and competitive pricing will limit further increases.

Operational developments could also influence the balance between capacity and demand.

Asian port congestion has shown signs of improvement, with vessel waiting times at Shanghai falling from 97 hours in week 38 to 38 hours in week 42.

This improvement should help restore schedule efficiency and release vessel capacity previously absorbed by delays.

What this means for shippers

The latest developments suggest that Asia–Europe freight rates will remain volatile through the remainder of 2026. Recent increases have been supported by carrier capacity management and pricing initiatives, but subdued demand and discounted offers suggest that further fluctuations are likely.

Service reliability remains just as important as pricing, with blank sailings reducing departure options and increasing the risk of cargo being rolled. Meanwhile, improving Asian port operations and the gradual return of services through the Suez Canal could release additional capacity, changing the balance between supply and demand.

Shippers should therefore assess available services, booking windows and delivery requirements alongside freight rate movements, rather than relying solely on headline market indexes.

Metro: Turning market volatility into better shipping decisions

When freight rates fluctuate and carriers adjust capacity, the lowest quoted price is not always the best shipping solution.

Metro combines established relationships with leading ocean carriers, global freight procurement expertise and extensive origin and destination capabilities to help customers make informed decisions across Asia–Europe trades.

Our teams monitor carrier schedules, capacity withdrawals, freight pricing and port conditions, identifying alternative services, gateways and consolidation opportunities when market conditions change.

Whether you're reviewing November bookings, preparing for 2027 contract negotiations or looking to improve schedule reliability, Metro can help you balance competitive pricing with dependable capacity and delivery performance.

HKG port

Asian port congestion could disrupt supply chains well into 2027

Sep 30, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Severe congestion across Asian container ports is tying up millions of TEU of capacity, driving schedule reliability to a four-year low and raising the prospect of disruption continuing well into 2027.

Repeated typhoons, strong Asian export demand and congestion spreading between ports have created disruption comparable in scale with the peak of the pandemic.

While conditions should improve as weather disruption eases, analysis of previous congestion cycles suggests clearing the accumulated vessel and container backlogs could take considerably longer.

Sea-Intelligence estimates it could take up to ten months for congestion to return to the levels recorded in June 2025, potentially leaving supply chains dealing with the consequences through the first half of next year.

Reliability falls as capacity gets trapped

The immediate impact is already visible in global shipping schedules. Schedule reliability fell another 5.9 percentage points in Sea-Intelligence's September report to 49.9%, its lowest level since September 2022 and the second consecutive significant monthly decline.

Late vessels are also getting later. Average delays increased by 0.6 days to 6.81 days, the highest since March 2022 and almost two days longer than a year earlier.

Estimates of the amount of capacity affected vary according to methodology and timing, but indicate the scale of the problem. Around 3.9m TEU is currently caught up in global port congestion, returning congestion volumes to levels last experienced in 2022.

Sea-Intelligence calculates the disruption is absorbing around 8.5% of the global containership fleet, effectively removing millions of TEU of usable vessel capacity from the market.

That helps explain why the industry's substantial influx of new vessels has yet to translate fully into available capacity. Ships waiting outside ports or arriving significantly behind schedule cannot provide the capacity their nominal deployment suggests.

Disruption spreads across Asian networks

Weather has been an important catalyst. Repeated typhoons have reduced effective port capacity at major Chinese gateways at the same time as strong export demand has increased pressure on terminals.

But congestion rarely remains confined to the port where the original disruption occurs.

Late vessels arrive together at subsequent calls, creating bunching and additional terminal pressure. Carriers may respond by omitting badly affected ports, but that can simply transfer containers and vessel calls to alternative gateways and transhipment hubs.

Some of that pressure is already shifting towards Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent.

The distortion can also make scheduled capacity figures misleading. Asia–North Europe deployment around Golden Week reached around 1.5m TEU over four weeks, approximately 27% higher year on year and 60% above pre-pandemic averages.

Rather than representing a straightforward increase in available space, part of that apparent capacity reflects vessels bunching as disrupted schedules overlap.

Rates reflect shrinking effective capacity

The consequences are particularly visible within Asia. Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index has reached record territory as Golden Week demand meets restricted effective capacity. Shanghai–Laem Chabang increased 22% in its latest assessment, while Shanghai–Jakarta rose 12%.

The impact extends further afield. Asia–US rates remain close to pandemic-era records, while charter markets are also signalling exceptionally tight vessel availability.

This creates an important distinction for shippers: deployed capacity and usable capacity are not the same thing.

Even as carriers receive new vessels, congestion can absorb that additional capacity before customers see the benefit through improved availability, reliability or pricing.

The landside challenge could last longer

Port congestion also has consequences beyond vessel schedules. For individual shippers, reliability ultimately depends on when cargo actually becomes available and reaches its destination. Vessel bunching can create sudden surges in container volumes through terminals, rail connections, depots and road networks.

Those supporting networks cannot expand as quickly as vessel capacity.

Terminal, rail and road infrastructure requires long-term investment, while operators also need to maintain high asset utilisation. That leaves less spare capacity available to absorb sudden spikes following weather disruption or vessel bunching.

The result can be a second wave of delay after a vessel reaches port, particularly where terminals and inland networks are already operating close to capacity.

Chinese New Year becomes the next pressure point

The length of the potential recovery is therefore significant.

Based on recovery patterns following the pandemic and the initial Red Sea disruption, Sea-Intelligence estimates congestion could take six to eight months simply to return to conditions seen at the end of 2025, and 10 months to return to the much lower levels recorded in June 2025.

That timeline extends beyond Golden Week and potentially into the next major Asian shipping peak.

Chinese New Year falls on 6 February 2027, meaning the traditional pre-holiday cargo rush could arrive before networks have fully cleared today's disruption.

For shippers planning Q4 movements and early 2027 supply chains, advance bookings, realistic transit assumptions and flexibility around routing and gateways could therefore remain important well beyond the current congestion peak.

Keeping cargo moving when networks tighten

Metro combines established global carrier relationships with extensive origin, destination and inland capabilities, giving our teams the flexibility to respond when congestion disrupts established shipping patterns.

Through consolidation services, alternative carrier and routing options, gateway selection and coordinated inland transport, we can assess the complete movement rather than relying on a single service or routing.

With Asian congestion potentially affecting capacity and schedules well into 2027, talk to Metro about upcoming movements and the options available to protect space, maintain visibility and build greater flexibility into your supply chain.

Cathay tailfins 1440x1080 1

Asia air freight enters autumn with momentum intact

Sep 16, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Air cargo’s traditional summer slowdown has failed to significantly loosen the market, with resilient demand, constrained capacity and renewed growth on key ex-Asia lanes keeping pressure on space and pricing as autumn begins.

Global air cargo volumes were 6% higher year on year in August, following 5% growth in July. More recent data shows that momentum continuing into September, with worldwide chargeable weight in week 36 still 7% above the same period last year.

Asia remains central to that strength. High-tech exports, AI and data-centre equipment, manufacturing activity and e-commerce continue to support demand, while available lift has struggled to grow at the same pace.

The result is an ex-Asia market that is increasingly defined by individual origins and trade lanes rather than a single regional trend.

Capacity remains the critical constraint

Global air cargo capacity was flat year on year during August, pushing capacity utilisation three percentage points above August 2025 levels. Dedicated freighters are carrying much of the additional demand, with freighter traffic having increased almost 14% year on year in July.

Adding substantial new lift remains difficult. Delayed new aircraft deliveries and passenger-to-freighter conversion programmes are restricting expansion, while carriers have been quick to redeploy freighters towards stronger markets.

That flexibility became particularly visible following changes to European low-value import rules. Falling e-commerce traffic initially weakened China and Hong Kong–Europe volumes, prompting some freighter capacity to move towards the stronger transpacific market.

However, the European picture is now showing signs of stabilisation. China–Europe volumes returned to modest week-on-week growth during August, while Hong Kong–Europe traffic increased 6% in week 36, its third consecutive weekly rise. Mainland China volumes have also been growing by low single-digit percentages since early August.

This recovery is significant as the market moves beyond the summer period and towards the traditional fourth-quarter peak.

Ex-Asia pricing reflects a tighter market

Although global spot pricing has gradually eased from its earlier highs, it remained 24% above last year during August. The latest weekly figures also point to renewed upward pressure from Asia.

In week 36, Asia Pacific spot rates increased 3% week on week to Europe and 2% to the US. China and Thailand to Europe both rose 6%, while Taiwan increased 7%.

Across Asia Pacific as a whole, pricing to Europe stood 15% above last year, while rates to the US were 40% higher.

High-tech manufacturing hubs remain particularly firm. Recent year-on-year increases included around 25% from South Korea and Taiwan, 22% from Vietnam, 32% from Thailand and 42% from Malaysia.

The transpacific remains especially strong. AI-related equipment and other technology exports continue to support demand from Northeast and Southeast Asia, while China and Hong Kong volumes to the US have remained resilient despite significant changes to low-value import rules.

There are also signs that the initial shock from Europe's new e-commerce rules may be passing. China’s low-value exports to Europe fell sharply after the July changes, but the subsequent improvement in China and Hong Kong tonnage suggests the market is beginning to find a new balance.

That does not necessarily mean a conventional peak season is developing. Instead, shippers face a more fragmented market in which capacity can move quickly between corridors and individual origins can tighten independently.

Further pressure could come from fuel. Rising oil prices are increasing aviation fuel costs, creating the prospect of higher surcharges just as autumn demand begins to build.

For businesses moving time-sensitive cargo from Asia, the combination of resilient demand, limited capacity growth and rapidly changing trade-lane conditions makes early planning increasingly important.

Metro combines local expertise across Asia with global air freight buying power and real-time market intelligence to identify pressure before it reaches your supply chain. 

Whether you need secured capacity, alternative gateways, flexible routings or support through the autumn peak, our air freight specialists can build the right solution around your priorities and keep critical cargo moving.

Mundra Port

Container trade stays strong as disruption reshapes east–west markets

Sep 16, 2026 | , , , , ,

Global container trade is proving remarkably resilient, but record volumes mask a more complicated picture across the major east–west trades. Congestion, blank sailings and inland constraints are increasingly determining the conditions shippers experience.

July set a new monthly record for global container shipping, with 17.3 million TEU moved worldwide. Volumes were 4.5% higher than July 2025 and are running 5.1% ahead year to date.

That underlying strength matters. Despite geopolitical disruption, changing tariffs and widespread port delays, international containerised trade continues to grow.

But demand alone does not explain current freight conditions. Carrier capacity management, severe congestion at Asian ports and pressure on destination transport networks are creating increasingly different conditions by trade lane.

East–west markets move apart

The clearest divergence is between Asia–Europe and the transpacific.

Asia–Europe spot rates have continued to soften, with Shanghai–Rotterdam falling another 2% and Shanghai–Genoa 3% in the latest weekly data. The traditional peak appears to have passed, although congestion and blank sailings are preventing a more rapid correction.

Across the Pacific, the picture is very different. Transpacific demand strengthened as the US peak season extended later than initially expected, with west coast volumes rising 9% week on week in early September and east coast volumes increasing 3%.

Rates have consequently remained firm. Shanghai–Los Angeles increased another 2% in the latest week and Shanghai–New York 1%, following larger gains the previous week.

However, demand is only part of the explanation. Carriers are becoming increasingly active in managing available space through blank sailings, vessel rotations and capacity deployment as China’s Golden Week approaches.

Across the major east–west trades, around 11% of scheduled sailings between mid-September and mid-October are currently expected to be cancelled. More than half of those cancellations are concentrated on the eastbound transpacific, with a further third affecting Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean services.

The pace of change is significant. Announced blank sailings for the four weeks leading into Golden Week jumped almost 56% in just one week, and further cancellations remain possible as carriers adjust networks around the Chinese holiday.

The overall level remains manageable, with almost nine in ten scheduled sailings still expected to operate. But the acceleration in cancellations points to a more active phase of capacity management.

For shippers, softer demand will therefore not necessarily translate directly into lower rates or easier access to space. How aggressively carriers remove capacity before Golden Week and how quickly demand returns afterwards could determine the balance between available space and pricing through October.

Congestion is moving through the network

Capacity management is only one part of the east–west picture. Four successive typhoons have left major Chinese ports working through substantial backlogs.

Between early July and late August, almost 5.8 million TEU of vessel capacity arrived more than seven days late at Chinese ports, which is around three times the level recorded before the storms.

The impact on schedule reliability has been dramatic. According to figures from Sea-Intelligence, global reliability fell over 6% in July to 56.4%, its sharpest monthly deterioration in more than five years, while late vessels were arriving an average of over six days behind schedule.

Conditions became particularly challenging on east–west services during the typhoon period. Asia–Europe on-time performance fell to around 10%, while Asia–North America dropped to 23%.

Although congestion is gradually easing, the network has yet to recover fully. The combination of existing backlogs, the pre-Golden Week export push and subsequent factory closures could prolong disruption into October, with bunched vessel arrivals then feeding through to European and North American ports.

That is particularly relevant in the US, where pressure is already building beyond the quayside.

The National Drayage Spot Market Index is 8.2% higher year on year as driver availability, equipment constraints, terminal turn times and appointment availability tighten the market.

Import containers are waiting six to seven days on average for inland transport at some locations and up to 14 days at individual terminals. Pressure has been reported around Los Angeles/Long Beach, Houston, Chicago, Memphis, Savannah and other inland gateways.

For US importers, securing ocean space is therefore only one part of the challenge. Drayage and inland capacity need to be planned earlier, particularly when disrupted schedules result in several vessels and large volumes of cargo arriving within a compressed period.

India disruption continues beyond Mundra strike

The end of the 13-day dispute affecting empty container yards at Mundra has not brought an immediate return to normal operations.

The strike officially ended on 10 September, but Metro’s team in India continues to report around 5,000 containers delayed each day, with empty container flows particularly affected.

The scale of Mundra makes those continuing delays significant. The port accounts for around 35% of India’s container trade, so disruption can quickly affect equipment availability, exports and wider regional supply chains.

The situation also highlights India’s growing importance within international sourcing strategies as businesses diversify their supply chains and increase manufacturing and procurement activity across the subcontinent.

Metro India continues to scale strategically in response. The business is expanding across seven locations, creating a stronger platform for sourcing, consolidation, origin management and exports across the Indian subcontinent.

Overall, ocean markets remains stronger and more complicated than headline rate movements suggest. Global container volumes are setting records, but where carriers deploy capacity, how quickly Asian ports clear backlogs and whether inland networks can absorb arriving cargo will shape conditions through Golden Week and into October.

We may return to examine these developing themes in more detail, as the impact of Golden Week becomes clearer.

Metro combines global ocean freight buying power with local expertise across key origin and destination markets, including our expanding operation in India and established US network. We monitor capacity, blank sailings, port conditions, equipment availability and inland constraints throughout the journey, giving customers the intelligence and routing options to act before disruption reaches their supply chain.

Image: Adapted from The port of Mundra in Gujarat by Felix Dance, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.

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