refinery

Fuel shocks across ocean, air and road freight

Apr 29, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, crude oil can still exist within the region, but refined products, which includes marine fuel, jet fuel and diesel, can no longer move freely to key consumption markets, which has triggered a sharp divergence in pricing and availability across all modes. 

For shippers, this creates a higher cost floor, as transport fuels are no longer moving in line with crude. Marine bunker, jet fuel and diesel each have their own supply chains and crack spreads (the margin between crude and refined products), and are now behaving independently of Brent. This is driving bunker-led cost pressure in ocean, jet fuel-driven inflation in air, and diesel-driven cost escalation in road. 

Ocean freight: bunker costs reset the pricing floor

In ocean freight, bunker fuel has become the dominant cost driver. Asian fuel hubs, particularly Singapore, are experiencing significant pressure as rerouted vessels increase demand while supply remains constrained.

This has created a disconnect between traditional pricing mechanisms and real-time costs. 

Emergency bunker surcharges are being applied across major trade lanes, while standard adjustment factors lag behind market conditions and may only catch up with current fuel inflation later in the year.

The result is a structurally higher cost base, with ocean rates now reflecting fuel volatility rather than underlying demand alone. 

Air freight: jet fuel shortage tightens capacity

Air freight is facing the most acute fuel-driven pressure. Gulf refineries, which typically supply jet fuel to Europe and Asia, are unable to export at normal levels, creating a shortage of refined product.

This has driven a sharp increase in jet fuel prices, with crack spreads widening dramatically from around $16 per barrel pre-crisis to approximately $100 in some regions. 

This regional price divergence means that Asia and Middle East jet fuel benchmarks sit substantially above North American levels, meaning that every kilo of freight uplifted is starting from a materially higher fuel cost base. 

As a result, airlines are adjusting networks, reducing marginal capacity and prioritising fuel efficiency, tightening available uplift and sustaining elevated airfreight rates.

Road freight: diesel inflation feeds through to transport costs

Road freight is also seeing significant cost pressure, with diesel prices rising independently of crude due to refinery constraints and regional supply dynamics.

Fuel accounts for roughly 30% of total truck operating costs, meaning sustained diesel inflation is already feeding through into pricing. 

At the same time, increased reliance on overland routes across the Middle East is adding further demand pressure, compounding both cost and capacity challenges.

What this means for shippers

  • Expect fuel-driven cost volatility across all modes
  • Plan for longer and less predictable transit times
  • Build flexibility into routing and inventory strategies
  • Monitor surcharge mechanisms

Fuel disruption, routing constraints and capacity pressure are now closely linked. Managing one without the others is no longer effective.

Metro works with customers to model alternative routes, balance mode selection and manage cost exposure in real time. If you are seeing rising costs, delays or uncertainty in your supply chain, EMAIL managing director, Andrew Smith, to secure the most effective solution for your cargo.

China flag and ship

China’s maritime code overhaul reshapes legal risk for UK shippers

Apr 28, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

A significant shift in the legal framework governing global shipping comes into force on 1 May 2026, as China implements revisions to its Maritime Code. 

While the changes are designed to align with international standards, their practical effect is to strengthen Chinese jurisdiction over cargo moving through its ports.

For UK shippers, this represents a meaningful change in how contracts of carriage are interpreted and enforced. Agreements that have historically relied on English law and London arbitration may now face limitations when disputes arise in connection with Chinese ports.

At the centre of the reform is a clear principle: where cargo is loaded or discharged in China, Chinese law is likely to apply. This introduces a new layer of complexity for businesses trading with or through the region, particularly where contractual terms have not been fully aligned with the updated legal framework.

Jurisdictional shift changes how disputes may be handled

The revised code increases the likelihood that Chinese courts or arbitration bodies will take the lead in resolving cargo-related disputes. In practical terms, this means that even where contracts specify alternative governing law, those provisions may carry less weight if the shipment is linked to a Chinese port.

This is particularly relevant for bills of lading, where multiple contractual layers can exist. 

The interaction between bespoke agreements and standard shipping documents is now less predictable, raising the risk that disputes will be assessed under Chinese law rather than previously agreed terms.

For UK businesses, this alters the balance of legal certainty that has long underpinned international shipping contracts.

The revisions also introduce more defined rules around cargo claims, including how and when shippers can pursue carriers for loss or damage, particularly where bills of lading have been transferred.

While this provides clearer guidance, it also requires a deeper understanding of how claims will be handled under Chinese law. Processes, timelines and evidential requirements may differ from those typically expected under English legal frameworks, affecting how disputes are prepared and resolved.

The updated code also reflects broader changes across shipping, with new provisions addressing the use of digital transport records, placing greater emphasis on compliance and reporting standards, particularly for foreign vessels. At the same time, changes to liability rules require closer scrutiny of insurance coverage and documentation.

A potentially more complex operating environment for UK trade with China

Taken together, the reforms reinforce China’s position as a central authority in the legal framework governing its trade flows. While English law and arbitration remain relevant, their practical influence may be reduced in specific cargo-related scenarios.

The impact will vary depending on contract structure, shipment type and dispute context, but the direction is clear: greater local control and increased legal complexity for international shippers.

With the changes now imminent, shippers should:

  • Review contracts covering shipments to and from China, particularly governing law and jurisdiction clauses
  • Reassess risk allocation within shipping agreements and supporting documentation
  • Confirm insurance coverage aligns with updated liability requirements

Early action will help mitigate exposure and reduce the risk of disputes being handled under unfamiliar or less favourable terms.

Metro works with customers to review contracts, align shipping strategies and ensure compliance with evolving international frameworks. If your business trades with China,  EMAIL our Managing Director, Andrew Smith, today to protect your position and keep your supply chain moving with confidence.

Blanking is biting

Blanked sailings surge as congestion and reliability continue to constrain capacity

Feb 18, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Container shipping capacity remains under pressure as carriers increase blanked sailings, schedule reliability weakens and port congestion ties up vessels across key gateways.

According to maritime researchers Drewry, 136 sailings were cancelled in February across the transpacific, Asia–Europe and transatlantic trades, a 122% increase compared with January. The surge coincides with the traditional Lunar New Year slowdown, as carriers anticipate a seasonal contraction in export volumes from Asia.

The majority of blanked sailings are concentrated on the transpacific eastbound route. While cancellations are expected to ease in March, with only 53 blank sailings currently announced, February’s reductions represent a material short-term withdrawal of capacity from the market.

Reliability slips back

Schedule reliability also deteriorated in December. Global on-time performance fell by 1.2 percentage points month-on-month to 62.8%, the second-lowest reading since May. 

Average vessel delay increased to 5.04 days, the second-highest level since April.

While reliability remains 9% higher year-on-year, performance across the major carrier groups remains uneven. Maersk recorded 76.7% schedule reliability in December, followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 75.2%. Eight of the top 13 carriers operated within the 50–60% range, while Wan Hai recorded 47.8%.

Alliance performance also diverged. In November and December, Gemini Cooperation achieved 92.3% reliability across all arrivals, compared with 73.5% for MSC and 58.8% for Ocean Alliance.

Lower reliability effectively reduces usable capacity. Late arrivals compress schedules, extend port stays and create knock-on disruption across subsequent rotations.

Northern Europe congestion continues

Port congestion continues to tie up vessels, particularly across Northern Europe. Winter weather has reduced terminal productivity in Antwerp, Hamburg and Rotterdam, with berth delays of three to five days reported. Le Havre is experiencing delays of up to eight days following temporary terminal closures.

Yard utilisation levels remain elevated across major European hubs, including UK ports. London Gateway and Southampton are reporting intermittent delays of one to two days, while Felixstowe has seen delays of up to five days.

Operational disruption is also reported in Poland, where snow and frozen equipment have affected both port and inland transport productivity.

Analysts estimate that congestion can effectively absorb around 6% of the global fleet at any given time, limiting available vessel supply.

Outlook remains challenging

Despite a global order-book equivalent to 34% of the existing fleet, the highest level since before the financial crisis, effective capacity remains sensitive to operational constraints.

Sea-Intelligence forecasts structural overcapacity could approach 10% by 2027, even when factoring in slow steaming, congestion, Red Sea diversions and scrapping of older tonnage.

In the near term, however, blanked sailings, reliability slippage and port congestion continue to determine how much capacity is actually available to shippers, regardless of headline fleet growth.

Metro’s sea freight team continuously model the potential impact of blank sailings, so we can secure space, optimise routings and build contingency plans around our customers’ specific flows.

By sharing your forecasts and critical SKUs early, we can ring-fence capacity, minimise disruption and shield you from service disruption and last-minute surcharges.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to arrange a strategic review and lock in the resilience you need for 2026 and beyond.

HKG port

Pre-CNY sea freight reliability is breaking down at origin

Feb 5, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Chinese New Year 2026 falls on Tuesday, 17 February, marking the start of the Year of the Fire Horse. While the official public holiday in China runs from 17–23 February, the operational impact on global supply chains is far longer.

In practice, factories, trucking networks and export operations begin winding down weeks before the holiday. Full production and logistics capacity typically does not return until early March, meaning the effective disruption window stretches across six to eight weeks.

In the run-up to Chinese New Year, ocean carriers are releasing significantly more bookings than they can physically load. This reflects the need to honour minimum quantity commitments (MQCs) while simultaneously building vessel pools ahead of the holiday shutdown.

The consequence is a sharp rise in rolled cargo at ports of loading and transhipment hubs. Confirmed bookings are increasingly failing to convert into loaded containers, particularly where space has been secured on standard spot terms. Even services that previously offered a degree of loading assurance are now seeing rollovers as pressure builds.

“Guaranteed” loading is increasingly limited to premium, prepaid options, while some previously protected spot services are now also experiencing rollovers. For shippers, this means booking confirmation alone no longer equates to reliability during the pre-CNY window.

Congestion is building at key Chinese ports

The impact of overbooking is being felt most acutely at Chinese ports of loading, where inbound container volumes are exceeding what terminals can process or load onto vessels.

Ports such as Ningbo and Nansha are already experiencing severe congestion, with vessel delays compounding the problem. In some locations, terminals are restricting gate-in to containers with pre-booked slots only. Once a vessel’s allocation is reached, additional containers are rejected, forcing cargo to wait for later sailings and triggering extra storage, trucking and handling costs.

Even where shippers deliver cargo early, there is no guarantee it will be accepted or loaded as planned.

Alongside port congestion, a series of inland constraints are converging. Equipment shortages, delayed EIR release, limited truck availability and labour shortages are all becoming more pronounced as workers begin leaving ahead of the holiday.

Access to gate-in slots is tightening, CY cut-offs are less flexible, and minor delays can quickly cascade into missed sailings. These constraints mean that execution risk is now driven as much by inland logistics as by vessel capacity itself.

What this means for shippers

The key challenge for 2026 is that Chinese New Year disruption is not a single event, but a prolonged period of reduced reliability. In the Year of the Fire Horse — traditionally associated with speed, intensity and unpredictability — supply chains are feeling the effects in real time.

Some shipments will be rolled repeatedly. Others will ultimately miss the pre-holiday window altogether. As the holiday itself approaches, the focus shifts from optimisation to prioritisation: deciding which cargo must move and which can wait.

Planning beyond the holiday

Risk does not end on 23 February. Cargo that fails to ship before the holiday is likely to face a post-CNY gap of two to three weeks, as factories, terminals and trucking networks restart gradually. Many operations do not return to full capacity until early March, creating a temporary vacuum and renewed pressure on early post-holiday sailings.

If you are shipping from Asia ahead of Chinese New Year — or planning post-holiday restart volumes — now is the time to review priorities and timelines. EMAIL our Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to assess options and manage risk across your supply chain.

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