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Seven supply chain shocks in seven weeks

Just seven weeks into 2025, global supply chains have already faced a whirlwind of challenges.

From industrial action to trade barriers and shifting alliances, businesses must stay agile to navigate ongoing disruptions. Here are seven of the most impactful developments so far this year.

1. US east coast port strike averted (8th January)
A major disruption was narrowly avoided as the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year agreement. The deal, approved on 7 February, prevented a strike that could have crippled US east coast ports for months. A final vote on 25 February will confirm its ratification.

2. Uncertainty over Suez Canal return (19th January)
Despite a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, container ships will not be returning to the Red Sea anytime soon. Carriers remain cautious, fearing renewed instability and prioritising the established Cape of Good Hope diversions. Even if ships do resume transit, severe disruption is expected, with schedules taking up to two months to stabilise.

3. Trump’s trade policies spark concerns (20th January)
Following his inauguration, President Trump swiftly reignited trade tensions, threatening tariffs on Colombia, China, Canada, and Mexico. Proposals include a 25% levy on steel and aluminium from Canada and Mexico, with reciprocal tariffs also being considered for UK imports. The potential trade war could have widespread consequences for global supply chains.

4. US air cargo demand under threat (1st February)
Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports and temporarily suspend the de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese shipments has sent shockwaves through the air freight sector. While the exemption was reinstated, changes to eCommerce regulations could significantly disrupt air cargo flows into the US, which is expected to receive 1.4 billion eCommerce packages this year.

5. New Asia shipping alliances reshape trade (2nd February)
The long-anticipated shift from three major container alliances (Ocean, THEA, 2M) to four key players (Ocean, Premier, Gemini, MSC) is now in effect. Asia-North Europe scheduled liner capacity will shrink by 11%, yet the number of weekly sailings will increase from 26 to 28. These changes will reshape global shipping networks for years to come.

6. European road freight rates stabilising (4th February)
After three years of decline, European road freight spot rates may have hit their lowest point. According to the European Road Freight Rate Benchmark, spot rates fell just 1% year-on-year in Q4 2024. While demand remains weak, cost pressures have kept rates 15% above pre-pandemic levels, with short-term volatility expected.

7. Carriers cut sailings to stabilise rates (14th February)
Shipping lines are aggressively blanking sailings to ease the transition to new alliance schedules and sustain freight rates. Between 17 February and 23 March, 51 sailings have been cancelled across key east-west trade routes, with February’s cancellations rising to 133 from 104 in January. Further capacity withdrawals and a general rate increase (GRI) could follow if demand fails to recover.

With trade disputes, shipping realignments, and geopolitical instability shaping global supply chains, the first quarter of 2025 has already presented significant challenges.

Staying ahead requires proactive strategy adjustments to mitigate risks and build resilience. That’s why we share these insights and why your Metro account management team is always by your side, ready to provide expert advice, share knowledge, and develop bespoke solutions tailored to your supply chain needs.

For high-level support, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director.

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Uncertainty grows as US tariffs target China

While last-minute negotiations resulted in a temporary reprieve for Canadian and Mexican imports, President Trump’s new tariffs on Chinese goods from the 4th February have already triggered retaliation, adding further pressure to international supply chains.

US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports have been put on hold for at least 30 days following security commitments from both nations. This delay offers temporary relief for critical trade lanes, including automotive components, electronics, and pharmaceuticals.

Canada has pledged increased border enforcement measures, including new personnel and surveillance technology, while Mexico has committed to deploying additional forces to its border. These actions have led to a pause in tariffs, but shippers should remain cautious as negotiations continue, with the risk of duties being reinstated if agreements are not finalised by March.

The US administration has implemented an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports and in response China has introduced tariffs of up to 15% on selected US goods and imposed export controls, affecting critical technologies such as solar cell production. While these measures appear targeted, they contribute to an increasingly volatile trade environment, forcing businesses to reconsider sourcing strategies and logistics solutions.

US prepares further trade restrictions

Beyond tariffs, the US is tightening its stance on eCommerce imports by getting ready to suspend the de minimis exemption for shipments from China, as soon as adequate systems are in place to fully and expediently process and collect tariff revenue. Previously, goods valued under $800 could enter the US duty-free, but the removal of this exemption would be expected to severely impact cross-border eCommerce air cargo volumes.

In addition, new regulations, announced by US Customs and Border Protection, introduce additional filing requirements, increasing administrative burdens on online retailers and logistics providers. However, analysts suggest that while higher costs may impact some importers, consumer demand is unlikely to diminish significantly, given the relatively low average value of eCommerce purchases.

With ongoing negotiations between the US, Canada, and Mexico, and China’s measured response to tariffs, industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic. However, agility will be essential in navigating evolving trade policies and regulatory changes. As new agreements are brokered and tensions shift, shippers must remain adaptable to mitigate risks and capitalise on emerging opportunities.

As global trade policies shift and new tariffs reshape supply chains, proactive planning is more critical than ever. At Metro, we leverage award-winning services and deep industry expertise to help businesses navigate evolving trade barriers, regulatory changes, and supply chain disruptions.

Whether you need to mitigate the impact of tariffs, ensure compliance with new regulations, or adapt sourcing/export strategies, our tailored solutions keep your supply chain resilient and competitive.

EMAIL Andy Smith, Managing Director, today to explore how Metro can safeguard your supply chain and support your business in 2025 and beyond.

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Safety and security declarations for EU imports

From 31st January, businesses importing goods from the European Union (EU) to Great Britain (GB) must comply with new UK safety and security declaration requirements.

While some businesses are already prepared – voluntarily submitting around three million declarations annually – many others need to act quickly to ensure compliance.

New requirements explained

Following the UK’s exit from the EU, imports from the EU have been exempt from safety and security declarations. However, this waiver ends on 31st January, bringing EU imports in line with the requirements already applied to goods from the rest of the world.

Safety and security declarations provide pre-arrival information for goods entering GB. These are submitted via the Safety and Security Great Britain (S&S GB) IT platform. By collecting this data, authorities can conduct more intelligent risk assessments, minimising delays for legitimate goods while preventing illegal or dangerous items from entering the country.

Declarations must be completed accurately and submitted before goods reach the GB border. Failure to comply may result in delays, unnecessary checks, or penalties. Businesses are urged to prepare now to avoid disruptions.

All businesses importing from the EU to GB must be aware of these regulations. Hauliers and carriers are legally responsible for submitting declarations, although third parties, such as agents or intermediaries, can submit them on their behalf with consent. Responsibility varies by mode of transport.

Submitting safety and security declarations

Declarations are made via the S&S GB platform. Businesses already set up for importing from outside the EU can continue using their existing systems and datasets. However, they may opt for the reduced dataset for EU imports.

Specialist software is required to submit declarations, as S&S GB does not have a user interface. Businesses can either develop their own software, purchase compatible software, or use the services of a system provider.

HMRC’s advice for shippers is to use customs agents like Metro, that have instructed their hauliers and confirm that they have primary and contingency methods in place.

If changes occur, declarations can be amended at any point before the goods reach the GB border. Once accepted, a Movement Reference Number (MRN) will be issued. This number is essential for goods moving through ports using the Goods Vehicle Movement Service.

Metro’s role in supporting customers

Metro will handle these new requirements on behalf of its customers, ensuring compliance and minimising disruption. With expertise in customs processes and advanced systems like its proprietary CuDoS platform, Metro simplifies declaration submissions while maintaining 99% accuracy and rapid processing times.

This proactive approach ensures goods continue to move smoothly, enabling businesses to focus on growth while Metro manages the complexities of import declarations. For businesses navigating these changes, Metro provides the expertise and technology to stay compliant and avoid unnecessary delays.

Webinar

Metro’s customs team ran a webinar on Friday 31st January – “Navigate 2025: Customs Challenges and Changes with Confidence” – to explain these and other customs changes.

Hosted by Andy Fitchett, Head of Customs & Compliance and Matt Weight, Director of Key Accounts, the webinar reviewed new regulations, processes, and challenges for businesses across the UK and Europe, including:

– Mastering Safety and Security Declarations for EU imports.
– Updates on the New Computerised Transit System (NCTS) Phase 5.
– Understanding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its impact.
– DEFRA updates, market news, and more!

You can download the presentation material from the Webinar, or watch a recording of the webinar.

CLICK to download content

CLICK to view webinar

Metro are at the forefront of customs brokerage solutions, with our automated CuDoS declaration platform and dedicated team of customs experts, reacting swiftly to any changes in the UK and EU’s trading regimes.

To learn more about safety and security declarations, OR to see how we can simplify and automate customs declarations – please EMAIL Andy Fitchett, Brokerage Manager.

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ICS2 Phase 2: What you need to know and how we can help

On 4th December 2024, Phase 2 of the Import Control System 2 (ICS2) was deployed, requiring maritime and inland waterways house-level filers, including Metro, to directly submit detailed safety and security data to EU customs authorities.

ICS2 is the EU’s advanced customs system designed to enhance supply chain security and facilitate smooth trade across its external borders. By collecting and analysing cargo data in advance, ICS2 allows customs authorities to identify risks early, ensuring efficient processing of low-risk goods while prioritising inspections for high-risk consignments.

Key benefits of ICS2

ICS2 streamlines customs procedures while securing the supply chain by:
Proactively identifying high-risk consignments for early intervention.
Reducing delays and costs through faster and smoother cross-border clearance.
Simplifying data exchange between Economic Operators (EOs) and customs authorities.

Enhanced data requirements
To comply with ICS2, all exporters and logistics providers must provide comprehensive data via the Entry Summary Declaration (ENS), including:

6-digit Harmonised System Code.
Commercial descriptions of goods.
EU-registered EORI numbers.

Complete details of the seller, buyer, and consignee.Prompt submission of this data enables accurate risk assessments, helping to avoid shipment delays.

ENS filing timelines

For maritime transport, ENS submissions must adhere to strict timelines:
1. Two hours before arrival at the first EU port of entry for goods from nearby regions (e.g., Greenland, Morocco, or the Mediterranean) with journeys under 24 hours.
2. Four hours before arrival for bulk cargo in other cases.
3. 24 hours before loading for containerised cargo on longer journeys.

Please note, some carriers may require submissions earlier, such as 24 hours before the estimated time of arrival (ETA) at the port of departure.

Implementation timeline
ICS2 is being deployed in three stages:

1.3rd June 2024: Maritime and inland waterways carriers.
2.4th December 2024: Maritime and inland waterways house-level filers.
3.1st April 2025: Road and rail carriers.

Since 4th December, Metro has been filing directly with EU customs authorities, ensuring compliance and early clearance of shipments. Non-compliance or incomplete ENS submissions can result in shipment delays, stops, and fines.

How we support your compliance

To simplify your compliance with ICS2 Phase 2, we’ve adapted our CuDoS customs brokerage platform to integrate seamlessly with the Shared Trader Interface (STI). This ensures your shipments are cleared early in the process, avoiding costly disruptions.

Our dedicated brokerage team is here to:
Guide you through ICS2 requirements.
Assist with data provision and ENS submissions.
Provide comprehensive support for import and export documentation across the EU.

Don’t let delays or penalties impact your operations. EMAIL Andy Fitchett today to learn how we can help ensure a seamless transition to ICS2 Phase 2 and keep your supply chain moving smoothly.