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A Quiet Week in finance…

Mar 17, 2025 | ,

When we sit down to discuss the latest article on recent happenings in the financial world and their impact on the supply chain and the businesses that operate in this sector, we find no shortage of topics.

We could discuss the upcoming changes to Employer NIC rates, where the amount paid on behalf of employees increases from 13.8% to 15%, as well as the reduction in the secondary threshold from £9,100 to £5,000 per year, leading to higher payroll costs soon to be borne by companies.

We could also discuss the upcoming Bank of England meetings set to be held on March 20, May 8, June 19, and August 7, with further meetings in September, November, and December. Whilst economists tell us several interest rate cuts may happen throughout 2025, the next cut is reportedly unlikely to happen at the upcoming meeting on March 20. Economists predict the BoE will likely reduce rates in May, with further cuts later in the year.

If time and space allowed, we could discuss the return of a familiar face in Mark Carney as the Prime Minister of Canada and the immediate challenges he faces, including a trade war with the US. Carney aims to pursue fiscal responsibility and social justice while forging new trading relationships, leveraging his crisis management experience to counter Trump’s hostilities.

Trade wars and tariff discussions are not limited to Canada. At the time of writing, Trump has introduced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports from around the world, as well as 25% tariffs on other imports from Mexico and a 20% levy on Chinese goods.

Retaliation has followed, with the EU targeting US goods worth a reported £22bn. These tariffs, covering products ranging from boats to bourbon to motorbikes, will start on April 1 and be fully in place by April 13. It is reported that American distillers are rushing to ship as much whiskey as possible to the EU before the above 50% tariff takes effect.

On the other side of the Atlantic, we could discuss Europe’s anticipated defence spending, which could provide an economic boost and reduce the need for the ECB to provide financial support. If we had time, we could also discuss the strengthening of the EURO, which is currently one of the top performers among G10 currencies. Increased fiscal spending and the potential end to the Ukraine war, alongside uncertainty in the US, where renewed recession fears have emerged, have led to improved sentiment toward both the EUR and GBP, causing the swift rise back to 1.29.

There are lots of things we could write about in this forum, or you could reach out to us on any specific topic, and we can discuss how any of the above may impact you and your business specifically.

EMAIL Laurence Burford, Chief Financial Officer.

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UK trade update

Mar 5, 2025 | , , , ,

The UK continues to develop its global trade strategy, advancing negotiations with key partners while navigating post-Brexit relations with the EU.

With multiple trade discussions in progress and regulatory changes affecting movement between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, businesses should prepare for evolving trade conditions in the coming months.

Northern Ireland trade lane: transition deadline approaches

From 31st March 2025, updated processes for parcel movements between Great Britain and Northern Ireland will take effect, marking a significant transition for businesses.

  • Private individuals in Northern Ireland will continue to receive parcels from Great Britain without customs declarations, tariffs, or the need to present goods to customs, provided they are for personal use.
  • Business-to-business (B2B) parcel movements will follow freight procedures, with traders requiring authorisation under the UK Internal Market Scheme (UKIMS). Either the sender or recipient must be authorised to declare goods as ‘not at risk’, ensuring they qualify for duty-free movement under the Simplified Process for Internal Market Movements (SPIMM).
  • B2B goods that do not qualify for SPIMM will require a full customs declaration, reinforcing the importance of ensuring compliance with eligibility criteria.

With NIRMS, UKIMS, SPIMM, and IMMI frameworks creating a complex regulatory landscape, businesses are encouraged to seek guidance to ensure compliance. Metro offers support in navigating these schemes, including post-Brexit audit reviews to assess eligibility for retrospective duty reclaims.

UK trade negotiations: expanding global agreements

The UK is actively pursuing new and expanded trade agreements to strengthen its global economic position.

  • Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP): The UK formally joined in December 2024, becoming the first European country to enter this major trade bloc, enhancing access to 11 key markets.
  • India and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Negotiations with India and the GCC are currently the highest priority, with discussions ongoing to finalise agreements.
  • South Korea, Switzerland, and Israel: The UK is working to deepen market access and streamline trade flows with these nations through revised agreements.

EU trade discussions: cautious expectations for change

Despite renewed diplomatic engagement between the UK and the EU, businesses should not expect imminent changes to existing trade arrangements.

Since the UK’s government change in July 2024, there has been a positive shift in UK-EU relations, yet uncertainty remains regarding what the UK seeks from a proposed trade ‘reset’. European officials have emphasised the need for clarity, particularly on youth mobility, but discussions remain in the early stages, with Brexit-related complexities still shaping the dialogue.

With UK-EU delegations set to meet in May, expectations are that the summit will establish a foundation for future talks rather than delivering immediate policy changes.

  • Supply chain operators should not anticipate short-term relief from Brexit-related challenges.
  • No significant changes to frontier processes appear likely, with both sides committed to fully implementing the current trade and cooperation agreement before considering modifications.
  • SMEs remain disproportionately affected by post-Brexit trade changes, with industry groups urging policymakers to prioritise reducing red tape.

As the UK’s trade strategy evolves, we will share important developments, particularly regarding EU discussions and the phased implementation of new trade agreements.

Navigating the complexities of international trade requires real-time insights and expert guidance. At Metro, we continuously monitor market influences and evolving regulations, to help you de-risk your supply chain and maximise opportunities.

With over 40 years of expertise in multimodal transport and customs brokerage, we lead the way with CuDoS, our automated customs declaration platform, ensuring swift compliance with UK and EU trade regimes.

Make informed decisions with Metro’s strategic support. For trade insights and risk management advice, EMAIL Laurence Burford, Chief Financial Officer. For customs and regulatory solutions, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director.

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The Roller Coaster Ride Continues

Feb 19, 2025 | , , , ,

The foreign exchange (FX) market has always been highly sensitive to political and economic events, and 2025 has been no exception. Recent data releases on both sides of the Atlantic have fuelled fluctuations in the GBP to USD exchange rate, making for a volatile start to the year.

Over the past few weeks, GBP/USD has oscillated between periods of relative stability and significant movement. As of the time of writing, the exchange rate stands at approximately 1.26 USD per GBP, a notable rebound from the early January lows of 1.21, with some vessel exchange rates even dipping to 1.19 or lower.

The Fall: Early January 2025
Several factors contributed to the pound’s decline against the dollar in early 2025:

  • US economic strength: Strong job growth and retail sales supported the USD, increasing investor confidence and driving dollar appreciation.
  • Interest rate policies: The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates, alongside a more cautious stance from the Bank of England, weighed on the pound.
  • Weak UK economic data: Lower-than-expected GDP growth and disappointing retail sales figures further eroded confidence in the pound, leading to increased pressure on GBP/USD.

The Rebound: Post 18th January 2025
A reversal in fortunes saw GBP/USD recover from its lows, supported by a shift in economic and political dynamics:

  • Improved UK economic indicators: Better-than-expected GDP growth and strong retail sales provided a much-needed boost to sterling.
  • Mixed US economic data: A slowdown in US retail sales and concerns about weakening consumer demand cast doubt over the sustainability of the dollar’s strength.
  • US political uncertainty: The shifting political landscape in the US, particularly discussions around fiscal policies and trade relations, increased market uncertainty. Trump’s renewed focus on reciprocal tariffs has raised concerns over trade disruptions, denting investor confidence in the USD.

Navigating Volatility
The recent GBP/USD fluctuations illustrate how tariff speculations, economic releases, and political developments can significantly impact FX markets. While trade concerns remain a major driver of sentiment, broader macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy decisions are also playing a crucial role in shaping currency movements.

Investors and traders will continue to monitor key data releases, central bank signals, and policy announcements to navigate what remains an uncertain and fast-moving market.

Market Outlook
Looking ahead, the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to remain highly sensitive to economic data, political shifts, and central bank policies. The interplay between economic fundamentals and policy decisions will continue to drive currency volatility, with no signs of simplification in sight.

Staying ahead of exchange rate movements can make all the difference to your business and while no one can predict the future of FX movements, at Metro we continuously monitor market trends, trade policies, and economic shifts to help businesses mitigate risks and seize opportunities.

By closely tracking currency fluctuations and global trade indicators, we provide insights that empower you to make the informed, strategic decisions that will protect your supply chain.

EMAIL Laurence Burford, Chief Financial Officer, for personalised insights and recommendations.

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Seven supply chain shocks in seven weeks

Feb 19, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Just seven weeks into 2025, global supply chains have already faced a whirlwind of challenges.

From industrial action to trade barriers and shifting alliances, businesses must stay agile to navigate ongoing disruptions. Here are seven of the most impactful developments so far this year.

1. US east coast port strike averted (8th January)
A major disruption was narrowly avoided as the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year agreement. The deal, approved on 7 February, prevented a strike that could have crippled US east coast ports for months. A final vote on 25 February will confirm its ratification.

2. Uncertainty over Suez Canal return (19th January)
Despite a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, container ships will not be returning to the Red Sea anytime soon. Carriers remain cautious, fearing renewed instability and prioritising the established Cape of Good Hope diversions. Even if ships do resume transit, severe disruption is expected, with schedules taking up to two months to stabilise.

3. Trump’s trade policies spark concerns (20th January)
Following his inauguration, President Trump swiftly reignited trade tensions, threatening tariffs on Colombia, China, Canada, and Mexico. Proposals include a 25% levy on steel and aluminium from Canada and Mexico, with reciprocal tariffs also being considered for UK imports. The potential trade war could have widespread consequences for global supply chains.

4. US air cargo demand under threat (1st February)
Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports and temporarily suspend the de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese shipments has sent shockwaves through the air freight sector. While the exemption was reinstated, changes to eCommerce regulations could significantly disrupt air cargo flows into the US, which is expected to receive 1.4 billion eCommerce packages this year.

5. New Asia shipping alliances reshape trade (2nd February)
The long-anticipated shift from three major container alliances (Ocean, THEA, 2M) to four key players (Ocean, Premier, Gemini, MSC) is now in effect. Asia-North Europe scheduled liner capacity will shrink by 11%, yet the number of weekly sailings will increase from 26 to 28. These changes will reshape global shipping networks for years to come.

6. European road freight rates stabilising (4th February)
After three years of decline, European road freight spot rates may have hit their lowest point. According to the European Road Freight Rate Benchmark, spot rates fell just 1% year-on-year in Q4 2024. While demand remains weak, cost pressures have kept rates 15% above pre-pandemic levels, with short-term volatility expected.

7. Carriers cut sailings to stabilise rates (14th February)
Shipping lines are aggressively blanking sailings to ease the transition to new alliance schedules and sustain freight rates. Between 17 February and 23 March, 51 sailings have been cancelled across key east-west trade routes, with February’s cancellations rising to 133 from 104 in January. Further capacity withdrawals and a general rate increase (GRI) could follow if demand fails to recover.

With trade disputes, shipping realignments, and geopolitical instability shaping global supply chains, the first quarter of 2025 has already presented significant challenges.

Staying ahead requires proactive strategy adjustments to mitigate risks and build resilience. That’s why we share these insights and why your Metro account management team is always by your side, ready to provide expert advice, share knowledge, and develop bespoke solutions tailored to your supply chain needs.

For high-level support, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director.

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