U.S. Power Plays Shape Global Climate and Asian Trade Policy

U.S. Power Plays Shape Global Climate and Asian Trade Policy

Oct 27, 2025 | , , ,

The United States exerted its influence on two critical stages this month, by blocking consensus on global maritime climate regulation in London and sealing a series of trade pacts across Southeast Asia. 

At the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London, U.S. pressure proved decisive in delaying adoption of a new net-zero emissions framework for shipping. After weeks of tense negotiation, the vote to postpone the measure by one year passed narrowly, with 57 in favour and 49 against, derailing what would have been the industry’s first global carbon-pricing mechanism.

The U.S. argued that the proposed levy on maritime emissions would raise consumer costs by around 10%, and threatened sanctions, visa restrictions, and port fees against nations voting in favour. Backed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela, the U.S. successfully persuaded several key flag states to withdraw support, effectively halting progress on a binding framework.

The decision has angered environmental groups and investors seeking a predictable framework for green fuel investment. Analysts now warn of fragmented regional carbon schemes, slower progress on decarbonisation, and renewed dominance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as the default transition fuel.

However, the delay appears to have done little to dent the industry’s confidence. In the two weeks since the IMO vote, shipping lines have continued to place significant new-build orders, with the containership order-book ratio surpassing 33% of the global fleet for the first time since 2009. 

More orders are expected in the coming weeks as carriers push ahead with long-term fleet renewal plans, signalling sustained appetite for capacity growth despite regulatory uncertainty.

Trump’s Asia Tour: Trade Wins and Strategic Balancing

Even as Washington disrupted global climate diplomacy, President Donald Trump was securing new trade concessions across Southeast Asia. During his recent tour, the U.S. concluded four separate deals aimed at deepening regional economic ties and diversifying away from China.

  • Vietnam agreed to maintain 20% tariffs on U.S. goods but will move toward zero tariffs on selected products. The two countries will also cooperate on digital trade, export-control enforcement and anti-evasion measures.
  • Thailand retained its 19% tariff rate but committed to eliminate duties on 99% of U.S. goods, opening a broad range of consumer and industrial markets.
  • Malaysia and Cambodia went further, signing comprehensive reciprocal agreements that cap ad valorem tariffs at no more than 19%.

U.S.–China: A Cautious Thaw

Trump’s whirlwind tour culminates on Thursday 30 October with a long-awaited meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, their first in six years. The two leaders will meet on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific summit, where negotiators have already framed a tentative agreement that would halt new U.S. tariffs and ease Chinese export controls on rare-earth minerals, which are essential for EVs, semiconductors and defence technology.

With U.S. trade agreements, compliance requirements, and sustainability regulations evolving fast, Metro can help you assess exposure and opportunities, maintaining compliance and resilient supply chains. 

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to review the latest policy impacts and ensure your business stays aligned with shifting global trade and environmental frameworks.

Blank Sailings, GRIs and a Typhoon Disrupt Asia Shipping

Blank Sailings, GRIs and a Typhoon Disrupt Asia Shipping

Sep 30, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

Shippers moving goods out of Asia are bracing for the tightest space and schedule disruptions as the major container shipping lines accelerate blank sailings in the lead-up to China’s extended Golden Week holidays.

Following weeks of tentative planning, lines have now confirmed broad capacity withdrawals, cancelling between 14–17% of sailings on core Asia–Europe and Asia–US routes to offset softer demand amid seasonal and weather challenges.

The unprecedented combination of Golden Week and the Mid-Autumn Festival has pushed factory shutdowns to an eight-day stretch this year, pausing exports at the world’s manufacturing hub.

Just days before the holiday, Super Typhoon Ragasa hammered South China, triggering port closures, flight cancellations, and severe equipment shortages. Local experts now expect cargo backlogs and shipping delays to stack up for at least a week beyond the holiday’s official end, intensifying the regional congestion and supply chain volatility.

Carrier Alliances Adjust Rapidly

Analysis of carrier announcements reveals distinct strategies among the largest ocean alliances. Early movers blanked sailings soon after market signals softened, while others opted for aggressive, late-stage cuts in the final pre-holiday weeks. Whether by steady withdrawals or front-loaded cancellations, overall capacity reductions are now on par with historical Golden Week patterns, yet the scale and timing of adjustments this year dwarf previous years and reflect the urgent need for carriers to rebalance supply with dampened demand.

In parallel with capacity cuts, carriers are moving to restore profitability through new general rate increases (GRIs). One major line has announced GRIs effective from early October:

  • Far East–North Europe: $1,200 per 20ft and $2,000 per 40ft.
  • Far East–West Mediterranean: $1,750 per 20ft and $2,500 per 40ft.
  • Far East–East Mediterranean: $1,800–$2,150 per 20ft and $2,600–$2,700 per 40ft, depending on destination.

Meanwhile, another leading carrier has confirmed a peak season surcharge on the westbound transatlantic, at $400 per 20ft and $600 per 40ft.

These surcharges highlight how quickly pricing can swing when capacity is withheld and seasonal demand shifts.

Adding to the disruption, last week’s Typhoon Ragasa forced widespread factory closures and halted container movements across South China. Surges in trucking and equipment charges at origin have been exacerbated by the post-typhoon scramble.

Why Carriers Blank Sailings

Blank sailings, a carrier’s decision to skip or cancel specific port calls, or even entire voyages, are a crucial tool for controlling costs and freight market stability. These cancellations can occur due to falling demand, port congestion, storms, mechanical breakdowns, or as part of a calculated strategy to support freight rates in an oversupplied market.

Blank sailings happen for several reasons:

  • Low demand – such as after Chinese New Year or Golden Week.
  • Port congestion – strikes, bottlenecks, or canal delays.
  • Weather disruptions – storms or unsafe docking conditions.
  • Mechanical issues – urgent vessel repairs.
  • Market strategy – cutting supply to stabilise freight rates.
  • Regulatory or political disruption – new rules or regional instability.

The Shipper’s Challenge

Blank sailings mean longer lead times, unpredictable offloads, and more frequent cargo rollovers. Freight may get rerouted, remain at origin for extended periods, or be consolidated on later vessels, driving both and planning complexity up.

To keep shipments moving and mitigate delays, shippers should:

  • Build more time buffers into supply chain schedules during holiday and storm periods.
  • Use tracking and analytics tools for early indications of disruption.
  • Diversify carriers, prioritising reliability and fast rerouting capabilities.
  • Communicate proactively about possible delivery delays.
  • Explore alternative transport modes for urgent consignments.

With volumes likely to stay subdued until the seasonal year-end surge, further blank sailings could be triggered in response to lingering congestion and uneven recovery.

The weeks ahead demand vigilance, agility, and close collaboration.

At Metro, we work hand-in-hand with our network and carrier partners across China to keep your cargo moving, even when the market is disrupted. From time-sensitive shipments to sudden blankings, our sea freight team finds the capacity and alternative solutions you need.

By sharing forecasts on critical dates and volumes, you’ll help us secure the right space to safeguard your supply chains and shield you from looming GRIs.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to explore how we can protect your ex-Asia supply chains and insulate you from threatened GRIs.

Ex-China Airfreight: Turbulence and Transformation

Ex-China Airfreight: Turbulence and Transformation

Sep 30, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

For shippers moving goods by air into Europe and the US, the peak season has arrived with a complexity not seen in recent years. As flights are cancelled and rates trend sharply upward, a fundamental reshaping of the marketplace is underway.

In September, a powerful typhoon swept through southern China just as the annual Golden Week holiday loomed. Traditionally, Golden Week brings a slowdown as manufacturing pauses and workers take leave, creating ripples in cargo flow.

This year, the typhoon compounded the crisis: hundreds of flights were suspended and key export ports shuttered, abruptly tightening airfreight supply. Airport terminals saw mounting backlogs, with some shipments delayed by nearly a week before normal operations could resume.

The squeeze led to dramatic, double-digit percentage increases in airfreight rates for shipments from China to Europe, climbing between 30% and 50% compared to average off-season levels. Routes to the United States also saw significant jumps, though the impact was mitigated by shifting demand patterns and new import restrictions in the US.

Europe Bound: A Market in Flux

While every major trade lane felt the impact of these disruptions, the China-to-Europe corridor has emerged as both the most stressed and the most resilient. Demand for space surged as volumes, particularly of high-tech and eCommerce goods, outpaced declining US-bound shipments.

This pattern reflects a broader structural change: capacity typically serving transpacific markets is now being redirected to European routes, reinforcing the upward pressure on rates.

The European Union’s relative trade stability and ongoing restocking by retailers have kept import flows buoyant. In contrast, the US market is seeing smaller volume growth and increasingly complex customs checks, which have led to sporadic diversions of supply chains to alternative gateway countries and slower overall throughput.

US Adjustments and Alternative Strategies

The US airfreight market from China, though still sizeable, has shifted course under the weight of new regulatory developments. The end of duty-free de minimis rules has decreased the viability of direct eCommerce shipments for small parcels.

As a result, shippers have begun to favour indirect strategies, routing goods through third countries to manage duties, or utilising other North American hubs to avoid new tariff thresholds.

This has prompted a measurable contraction in direct air cargo volumes to the US from China, even as some businesses attempt to hedge risk by booking additional capacity in advance for the holiday season. Leading carriers report rates holding steady or growing only modestly compared to Europe-bound lanes.

The Road (Skies) Ahead

Looking through 2025’s peak season and into the coming year, the airfreight market faces continued unpredictability. Recovery from typhoon-related disruptions is expected to be gradual, with many factories extending their Golden Week closures and logistical bottlenecks possibly persisting into mid-October.

Industry analysts project that rates on China-Europe flights are likely to rise further by up to 10% before normalising, while transpacific pricing will remain highly sensitive to evolving US trade policy and inventory cycles.

At the same time, underlying trends, such as the shift of high-value tech goods via air and the migration of eCommerce flows through alternative channels, suggest that unpredictability will remain a defining feature.

Early communication is becoming indispensable for urgent shipments. We would encourage shippers to forecast and book well in advance, providing transparent communication about possible route or schedule changes, and retain contingency plans for the likely rolling pockets of disruption.

Metro gives you the visibility, agility, and expertise to overcome turbulence and transformation, strengthening your supply chain and securing your airfreight movements from China to the US and Europe.

With demand surging and carrier schedules in flux, securing space and certainty has never been more critical. Metro is actively monitoring capacity, adjusting routings, and working with trusted carrier partners to protect booking allocations.

Our latest innovation takes visibility and control to new levels, with real-time flight telemetry tracking to provide:

– Live aircraft position and route mapping
– Accurate departure and arrival confirmation
– Time-stamped milestone events, updated in real time

This level of transparency means you can plan confidently, optimise inventory, and protect service levels even in unpredictable conditions.

Partner with Metro for smarter, faster, and more resilient air freight solutions, powered by live data and long-standing carrier relationships.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to explore how we can support your success.

Carriers Sustain Transpacific Rate Momentum with Strategic Blanking

Carriers Sustain Transpacific Rate Momentum with Strategic Blanking

Sep 17, 2025 | , , , ,

Transpacific carriers have achieved notable success this September in upholding spot freight rates despite softer volumes and ongoing market pressures. Through a mix of strategic blank sailings and well-timed general rate increases (GRIs), the main carriers have sustained a robust rate environment and prevented any steep downturn even as demand has moderated heading into Golden Week.

Even as US import volumes in the lead-up to Golden Week have remained below prior years, carriers have managed to stop spot rates from falling sharply, with major lines blanking about 10% of westbound and nearly 20% of eastbound transpacific sailings for September and October.

This level of discipline has limited rate erosion and positioned the market for further stability as more blank sailings are announced for October.

Recent Rate Developments

September’s rate surge was driven primarily by a combination of a general rate increase and capacity reductions. Spot rates saw weekly gains approaching 6% on key legs, and some increases were as much as 21% compared to late August. While these rate gains provided temporary lift, spot prices have started to moderate, trending back to levels seen before the September 1 GRI. Carriers have succeeded in keeping rates comfortably above the lows reached in August, typically sitting up to 20% above those levels.

Many carriers are now offering voyage-specific spot rates, targeting marketplace flexibility to fill remaining slots. This approach, alongside tactical blankings, enables lines to preserve market discipline and ensure spot prices do not undercut contracted rate benchmarks. The current spread between spot market and fixed contract rates reflects ongoing efforts to support yields while maintaining service options for shippers.

Outlook

In September, eastbound transpacific blankings removed approximately 10% of capacity on West Coast routes and nearly 13% on East Coast strings.

Forecasts for October foresee blankings of about 10% on the West Coast and almost 20% to the East Coast, reflecting a more aggressive stance in supporting additional GRIs post-Golden Week. 

Their active management has proven successful in supporting rates under challenging conditions, emphasising a preference for maintaining pricing power over chasing fleeting short-term volumes. As a result, the transpacific market continues to resist a downward spiral, demonstrating resilience and strategic discipline.

With strategic capacity management and long-established ocean carrier relationships, our team is helping clients secure space, optimise rates, and keep high-priority cargo moving on key transpacific lanes.

As blank sailings and new rate initiatives reshape the market, proactive planning and flexible routing have never been more important.

If your business depends on reliable Asia–US trade flows, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to discover how expert guidance and tailored solutions can keep your supply chain agile and cost-effective, whatever the market brings.

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