Freighter

Air Cargo Outlook Strengthens

Jun 10, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global air cargo demand continues to show signs of recovery, driven by seasonal trends, front-loaded shipments and shifting trade flows. However, market conditions remain volatile, with varying regional dynamics, capacity fluctuations and ongoing uncertainty.

Air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), rose nearly 6% year-on-year in April, supported by the seasonal uplift in fashion and consumer goods, pre-emptive shipping ahead of US tariff changes, and falling jet fuel prices. Month-on-month, demand rose 2.3%, building on a strong March performance and growing again in May.

Freighter capacity returns to the trans-Pacific
Freighter capacity is rising again, especially on the transPacific, as airlines cautiously reintroduce wide-body lift in response to improving demand. Asia–Europe and Middle East–Asia freighter supply grew 11%, while Asia Pacific–North America increased 8% in the first week of June.

After a sharp fall in eCommerce volumes triggered by new US tariff rules, capacity had shifted away from China–US lanes. But as volumes recover, albeit slowly, freighters are returning.

Freighter services are also being bolstered through indirect routings. Chinese carriers, for example, have added new air–air links via Hanoi to support Vietnam–US demand, while capacity from South Korea is tightening, especially for high-tech and perishables.

Tariff volatility driving unpredictable rate trends
The Baltic Air Freight Index rose 1.2% month-on-month in May, but was over 5% down win the same period in 2024. Spot freight rates on lanes out of China softened in early May before rising sharply later in the month. The spot rate index for Hong Kong was up 1% compared to April but down 6.3% year-on-year.

A patchwork of changing US tariff rules created considerable mid-month turbulence. eCommerce shipments, which made up 50% of China–US air freight in 2024, have been hit hard. The May 2 removal of the de minimis exemption for low-value shipments was followed by a brief truce and a reduction in duties. First from 145% to 120%, then to 54%, with a flat $100 fee on postal items. These changes triggered both short-term front-loading and momentary drops in volumes.

Carriers are warning that further disruptions may arise if shippers wait too long to secure capacity, especially with the current 90-day tariff truce due to end in mid-August. Late-quarter demand and compliance bottlenecks could create pressure points, especially on high-traffic lanes such as China–US and intra-Asia.

Regional variation and trade lane shifts
Rates and demand trends continue to diverge across regions. Intra-Asia demand is firm, supported by high-tech and perishables, while South Korea–US routes require bookings up to two weeks in advance. Rates from Japan to Europe are rising, though capacity from Guangzhou and other hubs has been reduced. Meanwhile, outbound rates from Vietnam and India remain lower year-on-year.

In the Americas, rates from the US to South America are significantly higher than a year ago, although some observers are beginning to flag early signs of overcapacity. Rates from Europe are mixed, and seasonal factors like cherry and peach exports are also starting to influence flows and capacity allocation.

Jet fuel remains a bright spot for airlines. Prices were 21% lower year-on-year and 4% down month-on-month, offering margin support even in the face of softening yields.

As air cargo markets navigate shifting demand and volatile rates, securing reliable space at the best rates is more critical than ever. Metro’s global air freight specialists work across key trade lanes, including Asia, Europe and the Americas, to help you air freight with confidence.

Whether you’re moving high-tech, fashion, perishables, eCommerce or anything else, our team ensures fast, reliable and cost-effective air freight solutions tailored to your needs.

EMAIL managing director, Andrew Smith, today to secure capacity, avoid disruption and keep your supply chain moving efficiently.

Istanbul

Near-Shoring Gains Momentum Across EMEA

Jun 5, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , ,

Faced with rising tariffs, geopolitical risk, and ongoing disruption to global transport networks, a growing number of businesses are turning to near-shoring as a strategic way to strengthen supply chains.

Near-shoring, the relocation of manufacturing or sourcing to nearby countries, gained attention in boardrooms when the pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of far-flung, overly concentrated supply chains, with the current tariff disruption renewing interest in the strategy.

Recent data reveals a clear trend: foreign direct investment (FDI) into near-shore manufacturing hubs in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and North Africa is up more than 60% compared with pre-pandemic levels. More than 15 destinations across these regions recorded five or more manufacturing investment projects each over the past year.

Companies are seeking to reduce exposure to tariff shocks, avoid over-reliance on a single geography or supplier, and better respond to market shifts. Unlike full re-shoring, near-shoring offers a balanced approach, retaining cost efficiency while improving agility.

Major global manufacturers are already making moves. A well-known French automotive brand invested €400m to expand its Turkish operations into an EU export hub, while Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD is building its first European plant in Hungary. Hungary alone has seen a 140% rise in manufacturing investment over five years, with Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and North Macedonia also recording strong gains.

In North Africa, Morocco and Egypt are emerging as strategic alternatives. These markets combine population scale, cost competitiveness, and a growing skilled workforce, making them attractive to firms seeking stable, scalable supply options within reach of European customers.

Supply chain, cost, and environmental advantages
Beyond geopolitical resilience, near-shoring offers a wide range of operational and environmental benefits:

  • Shorter lead times: Reduced transit distances enable faster response to demand changes and shorter replenishment cycles.
  • Lower transport costs: Closer-to-home sourcing significantly reduces shipping spend and exposure to ocean freight volatility.
  • Less reliance on air freight: Shorter routes and predictable lead times reduce the need for costly, carbon-intensive air freight.
  • Lower emissions: A more regionalised supply chain helps reduce carbon footprints and supports ESG and net-zero targets.
  • Improved collaboration: Proximity improves communication, supplier relationships, and coordination across the supply chain.
  • Risk mitigation: Near-shoring builds resilience into operations, limiting the impact of global disruptions.

While near-shoring may not match Asia’s ultra-low production costs, countries such as Turkey, Hungary, Egypt, and Morocco offer a strong balance of affordability, labour availability, and growing infrastructure.

Long-term advantage through strategic sourcing
Near-shoring is no longer a short-term reaction to tariffs or global disruption, it’s becoming a foundational pillar of modern supply chain strategy. Brands that invest in supplier networks closer to their markets are gaining long-term advantage through speed, adaptability, sustainability, and reduced risk.

Power your near-shore strategy with Metro
Whether you’re exploring new EMEA sourcing options or already shifting production closer to home, Metro has the tools and expertise to optimise your near-shore operations.

  • Our MVT supply chain platform delivers vendor management and end-to-end visibility
  • Our dedicated EMEA and Overland department provides regional expertise and support
  • Our regular European road services, including market-leading Turkish services, ensure seamless overland freight and final-mile delivery

EMAIL managing director, Andrew Smith, today to streamline your near-shoring strategy and secure a more sustainable, resilient supply chain.

Maersk

Global Schedule Reliability Rises Again

Jun 2, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Container shipping schedule reliability improved for the second consecutive month in April 2025, reaching its highest level since November 2023. According to the latest industry data, 59% of vessel arrivals were on time in April, up from 58% in March and 6% higher than April 2024.

While still far from pre-pandemic levels, the trend reflects a clear focus among carriers on restoring service integrity.

The standout performer remains the Gemini Cooperation, formed by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, which continued to dominate on-time performance metrics across key global trades. In April, Maersk posted the highest reliability among the top 13 carriers at 73%, followed closely by Hapag-Lloyd at 72%. MSC placed third with 61%.

Gemini achieved an average of 91% on-time reliability across all port calls and 87% when measured by final destination arrivals, well above its 90% performance target on several major lanes, including Asia–US West Coast and US East Coast–Europe services. On the Asia–North America West Coast route, Gemini achieved a perfect 100% score. Meanwhile, MSC led on the Asia–North America East Coast trade, recording 92%.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance continued to struggle. Premier averaged 53% reliability, while Ocean Alliance fell to 51%. Among individual members, Evergreen recorded the lowest schedule performance at 47%.

Market impact of improving reliability
Improving schedule reliability is more than just operational, it’s strategic. Consistent service performance enables shippers to reduce safety stocks and better manage inventory, improving overall supply chain efficiency. Simply, reliability allows companies to remove weeks of buffer stock from their planning.

In contrast, low-reliability carriers may find themselves at a competitive disadvantage, particularly if freight buyers begin to prioritise predictability over price alone in an increasingly complex market environment.

Rates hold firm as carriers manage capacity
As we report in this week’s newsletter average global spot freight rates have also shown moderate upward movement. The Drewry World Container Index reported a 2% rise in global average rates in mid-May, bringing the benchmark to a level that is 60% above the pre-pandemic average, but still far below the 2021–22 peak.

Shanghai–Genoa and Shanghai–New York spot rates both increased by 4% week-on-week, while Shanghai–Los Angeles edged up 2%. Backhaul rates out of Europe remained stable, indicating strong front-haul demand and tight outbound capacity from Asia.

The rate resilience is partly attributed to carriers’ continued capacity discipline and their renewed focus on reliability. As cargo volumes from Asia increase, partly driven by front-loading ahead of potential tariff changes, shippers are placing greater value on stable schedules and transit times.

With the full rollout of the new alliances not expected until July, further improvements in reliability may still lie ahead. For now, Gemini’s strong performance is setting a new service benchmark, while the broader market appears to be shifting in favour of predictability and performance over sheer price competition.

With carrier reliability still fluctuating across trade lanes, dependable sea freight solutions requires more than just a booking, it requires real-time insight and agility. Metro’s MVT platform continuously tracks shipping line KPIs, comparing actual performance across alliances and enabling us to dynamically adjust your supply chain around real arrival data, not published schedules.

Combined with our expert sea freight team and strategic carrier partnerships, this data-driven approach helps reduce delays, optimise inventory planning, and protect your service levels.

Partner with Metro for smarter, more reliable ocean freight, powered by MVT and built around your business. EMAIL Andrew Smith, managing director, today.

Trumps tariffs 1440x1080 1

Court Ruling Challenges Trump’s Trade Strategy Amid Global Uncertainty

May 29, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

A U.S. federal court has ruled that President Donald Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs are illegal — delivering what may prove to be a major blow to his trade policy agenda, or simply a temporary setback.

On May 28, 2025, the United States Court of International Trade determined that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing broad tariffs on imports from numerous countries. The court found that the administration’s justification did not meet the IEEPA’s requirement of an “unusual and extraordinary threat,” rendering the tariffs an improper use of executive power.

The three-judge panel unanimously held that the IEEPA does not authorise the president to unilaterally impose such sweeping tariffs, stressing the need for a clear mandate from Congress when it comes to major economic decisions. As a result, the court issued a permanent injunction against the tariffs and ordered U.S. Customs and Border Protection to stop collecting them.

The ruling requires that the tariffs be halted within 10 days. The Trump administration has announced plans to appeal, which could take the case to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

Implications for Trade Policy
This decision directly challenges a key pillar of Trump’s trade strategy, which has leaned heavily on tariffs to address trade imbalances and shield U.S. industries. It may also influence ongoing negotiations with key partners such as the European Union and the United Kingdom by casting doubt on the legal basis for unilateral U.S. tariff actions.

While the court invalidated the sweeping global tariffs introduced on April 2 — including the baseline 10% levy and “reciprocal” duties — it did not strike down the administration’s sector-specific tariffs on imports like steel and cars, which remain in force.

The ruling is expected to embolden critics of Trump’s tariff policy across corporate America, foreign capitals, and Capitol Hill. It also comes at a sensitive moment for the administration, which is working to finalise new trade deals after suspending many of the planned tariff hikes.

The legal setback introduces fresh uncertainty into an already volatile global trade landscape — and may ultimately reshape how domestic and international actors engage with U.S. trade policy in the months ahead.

Stay informed as the US tariff and trade landscape evolves. Go to our home page to subscribe to our eBulletin updates for expert insight on the rulings, appeals, and what it all means for your supply chain strategy.

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