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2024: Reflecting on a Dynamic Year in Global Supply Chains

As 2024 comes to an end, we look back at a year filled with extraordinary events that shaped the global supply chain landscape. From geopolitical challenges to shifts in logistics trends, the past year has underscored the importance of resilience, adaptability, and innovation in our industry.

Here are just a few of the major supply chain developments we covered and that defined 2024:

Houthi attacks in the Red Sea: The crisis continues, forcing vessels to divert around the southern tip of Africa, creating new delays and challenges for global trade.

Global RoRo capacity shortages: The shipping of automobiles was heavily impacted as carriers grappled with fleet reductions from the pandemic.

Labour unrest: Strikes surged 42% year-over-year, including a six-week standstill at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

Port of Baltimore closure: The collision and collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge caused a three-month disruption.

eCommerce growth: Air freight demand soared on Asia-North America lanes as online shopping reached new heights.

ILA strike: A three-day US East Coast dockworker strike in October highlighted ongoing tensions over automation, with another strike looming in January 2025.

Global reefer shortages: The demand for refrigerated containers remains unmet, impacting perishable goods transport.

Political shifts: The re-election of Donald Trump signals potential changes in trade policies, with protectionism and tariffs on the horizon.

Shipping alliances: New alliances reshaped container shipping routes, including Maersk’s departure from Felixstowe.

Metro’s Highlights

2024 was also a year of achievements for Metro Shipping:

Air Freight Business of the Year: We were proud to receive this accolade at the Logistics UK Awards.

Road freight expansion: Our growing road freight division continues to support our clients’ evolving needs.

Publishing sector portfolio launch: We introduced tailored logistics solutions for the publishing industry.

Great Place to Work: Metro was officially accredited, reflecting our commitment to a positive and empowering workplace culture.

As we get ready to step into 2025, we are prepared to face challenges head-on, supporting our customers with expert insights, seamless operations, and innovative solutions.

Thank you for your trust and partnership in 2024.

Wishing you a wonderful holiday season and a successful year ahead.

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Sea freight situation and outlook for 2025

With 2024 characterised by elevated freight rates and fluctuating dynamics, the container shipping lines have emerged as the primary financial beneficiaries, leveraging rate increases and stabilisation efforts to maintain profitability.

The outlook for 2025 presents a mixed landscape of opportunities and challenges, driven by shifting demand patterns, increased capacity, and geopolitical uncertainties.

Current market dynamics
Freight rates remain significantly above pre-crisis levels. Despite a gradual downward trend in global head-haul rates, the market has stabilised, suggesting a potential period of relative equilibrium in the coming quarters. 

Recent general rate increases (GRIs) by Asia-Europe carriers have demonstrated success, with rates on key routes from Asia to Europe rising by over 20%.

These elevated rates are expected to persist until the Chinese New Year in late January 2025. However, the seasonal decline in demand and the introduction of new alliance networks in February may present an opportunity for shippers.

Supply chain and capacity dynamics
Global shipping capacity grew by nearly 5% in Q3 2024, supported by minimal fleet idling and increased vessel activity. Ships previously affected by Suez Canal disruptions have returned to regular service, further bolstering capacity.

Nevertheless, the risk of overcapacity looms large. Continued vessel deliveries, combined with low scrappage rates, may necessitate fleet rationalisation if demand weakens. Carriers remain bullish, adding capacity to secure competitive positioning despite potential imbalances.

Outlook for 2025
The sea freight market in 2025 is expected to face moderate demand growth, projected at around 3-4%, though low consumer confidence and increased import tariffs in key markets, particularly the United States, may temper this growth. Additionally, manufacturing indices in major regions, including China and Europe remain suppressed limiting demand potential.

Geopolitical uncertainties will continue to shape the market. Ongoing negotiations in U.S. East and Gulf ports could lead to disruptions if unresolved by the 15th January 2025, while tensions in the Red Sea pose potential risks to key shipping routes.

Trade policy remains a critical factor, with proposed tariff increases in the United States potentially reshaping containerised cargo flows, particularly on Asian export routes. Meanwhile, the temporary rerouting of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope has absorbed some capacity, but a return to normal operations through the Suez Canal could intensify supply-demand imbalances.

As geopolitical risks and market disruptions continue to loom over the industry, maintaining resilient supply chains and budgeting effectively will be key priorities for shippers navigating the complexities of 2025’s sea freight landscape.

In a volatile sea freight market, our fixed-rate agreements on popular shipping routes reduce risk and provide essential budgetary certainty. 

To explore how Metro’s fixed-rate options could support your business in 2025, please EMAIL chief commercial officer Andy Smith.

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Maersk leave Felixstowe as shipping Alliances prepare for launch

The container shipping industry is undergoing significant realignments, with three major alliances and MSC operating independently, restructuring their networks to enhance efficiency and reliability.

These alliance changes represent a major shift in container shipping, affecting global trade routes and port operations, with the major carriers adapting to evolving market needs, regulatory pressures, and cost management requirements.

In a shock move announced last week Gemini Cooperation partners, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have chosen London Gateway as their primary UK hub for Asia-Europe services, replacing the Port of Felixstowe. Choosing ports is crucial for the ambition of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to achieve 90% schedule reliability.

Through Gemini they aim to reduce network complexity by implementing single-operator loops and fewer port calls per service, thereby enhancing reliability and speed for customers. The Gemini Cooperation will deploy a fleet of approximately 290 vessels, with Maersk contributing 60% and Hapag-Lloyd 40%, totalling a combined capacity of 3.4 million TEU. 

The dissolution of the 2M Alliance between Maersk and MSC, effective January 2025, has prompted these realignments. Additionally, Hapag-Lloyd’s departure from THE Alliance has led to the formation of the Premier Alliance, comprising Ocean Network Express (ONE), Yang Ming, and HMM.

2025 Container shipping alliances

Gemini Cooperation
Formation: A new alliance starting 1st February, 2025.

Members:
Maersk
Hapag-Lloyd

Key Features:
– Focus on high reliability (target: 90% service reliability).
– Simplified loops and reduced port calls to optimize efficiency.
– Major trade lanes: Asia-Europe, Trans-Pacific, and North-South trades.
– UK hub: London Gateway (replacing Felixstowe).

Premier Alliance
Formation: Starts February 2025; a five-year agreement.

Members:
Ocean Network Express
HMM
Yang Ming

Key Features:
– Coverage of East-West trade lanes, including Asia-Europe, Asia-North America, and Trans-Pacific routes.
– Aims to improve operational efficiency and cost-sharing among smaller carriers compared to the larger players.
– While the exact number of vessels allocated to the Premier Alliance is not specified, the extensive service network suggests a significant fleet deployment.

Ocean Alliance
Formation: Originally formed in 2017; extended until 2032.

Members:
COSCO
OOCL
CMA CGM
Evergreen Marine Corporation

Key Features:
– Operates 330 vessels with a total capacity of 3.8 million TEUs.
– Major trade routes: Asia-Europe, Asia-North America, and intra-Asia.
– Focuses on stability and long-term collaboration.

MSC Standalone Network
Mediterranean Shipping Company, the world’s largest carrier by fleet size.

Key Features:
– Operates independently without alliances.
– Plans to maintain flexibility and control over service offerings.
– Network includes extensive global coverage, particularly on Asia-Europe and Trans-Pacific lanes.
– Fleet of approximately 850 container vessels (6 million TEU), with 99 vessels on order, which would add nearly 1.2 million TEU to its capacity.

Legacy Alliances (Dissolved):
2M Alliance
Members: Maersk and MSC.

THE Alliance
Members: ONE, HMM, Yang Ming (until January 2025).
– Transitioning into the Premier Alliance.

Metro negotiate contracts and volume agreements with a broad portfolio of carriers, including MSC and across the alliances, to offer our shippers the widest range of service offerings, port-pairings and rates.

Our bespoke solutions uniquely reflect our customers requirements and expectations. For further information please EMAIL Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Smith, who would be delighted to review your situation. 

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November: North American market update

The North American freight market faces a complex set of challenges as ongoing labour disputes, potential trade policy shifts, and evolving service offerings reshape the landscape.

Canadian port strikes strain supply chain
Labour disputes have disrupted operations at Canada’s east and west coast ports, with significant impacts on supply chains. At the Port of Montreal, the Maritime Employers Association (MEA) imposed a lockout after the Longshoremen’s Union CUPE Local 375 rejected their offer, halting operations since 31st October. On the west coast, stalled negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and port authorities in Vancouver and Prince Rupert effectively paralysed these critical gateways for Canadian imports and exports.

The closures forced Canadian freight to be diverted to US west coast ports, including Seattle, Oakland, Los Angeles, and Long Beach, adding to congestion and creating backlogs that could take months to resolve.

Government intervenes to resume operations
In a decisive move on the 12th November, the Canadian government directed the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to end the strikes at Vancouver and Montreal and impose binding arbitration. While business groups welcomed the intervention, union representatives criticised the move, arguing it undermines workers’ rights.

As operations begin to resume, the Montreal Port Authority announced plans to gradually clear terminal backlogs and restore fluidity, although it could take weeks to return to normal. Meanwhile, Vancouver’s container terminals remain delayed, with limited anchorage availability adding further challenges.

US east and gulf coast strike uncertainties persist
Following a brief three-day strike in October on the US east and Gulf coasts, concerns remain about potential further disruptions. The strike’s conclusion hinged on a provisional wage agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), with more complex issues such as automation still unresolved.

Negotiations resumed with a new contract deadline of 15th January 2025, but ended early on the 12th November, when the ILA broke off talks with the USMX. According to ILA, the decision was made after USMX continued “pushing automation and semi-automation language in its Master Contract proposals that will eliminate ILA jobs.” The ILA added it “remains hopeful that USMX will alter its un-winnable strategy, and resume negotiations as soon as possible.”

The uncertainty surrounding contract outcomes is likely to push shippers to expedite shipments before January, amplifying capacity constraints across North American ports. The October strike impacted trans-Atlantic and Asia-US trade lanes, with trans-Atlantic westbound volumes falling by 15% and Asia-US east coast capacity expected to drop 17% in mid-November.

Potential tariff escalation under new US administration
The US presidential inauguration in January may bring significant trade policy changes, with proposed tariffs that could reach 60% on China and 20% on other countries.

While the EU, which has a $130bn trade surplus with the US, is preparing counter-tariffs, the UK, which enjoys a relatively modest surplus, appears unlikely to retaliate, favouring open trade instead.

This potential tariff escalation could lead to intense front-loading of shipments before January, creating a pre-inauguration shipping peak, which might align with the pre-Lunar New Year demand surge.

Metro’s expanding US focus
The United States is Metro’s 2nd largest origin/destination and client location, with a large number of customers also having their head office located in North America.

To better support this large and growing client base, Metro will open its first office in the US next year. The non-operational office will focus on local American customers, to enhance the level of service and support provided to them, including the oversight of 3rd country movements through the Americas.

In-house shipping line offers Express US service
Wholly-owned group subsidiary, Ellerman City Liners, has launched the weekly sailing United States Express Service (USX), delivering some of the fastest containerised transit times available. Direct to Philadelphia from just 13 days, USX utilises non-congested ports and terminals, to streamline port clearance and inland movements.

USX is the only direct service operating to and from Jacksonville, serving the Baltic, Scandinavia, Europe and the United States, with four calls on the East Coast, including Philadelphia.

Ellerman’s USX service offers fast and reliable transit times, with lots of flexibility and operates in cooperation with MSC. It is gratifying to see our group working closely with the world’s largest carrier, which underlines our continued commitment to supporting our partner carriers. Many of whom we have worked with for decades.

As North America’s sea freight market adapts to labour uncertainties and fluctuating trade policies, shippers face a complex landscape of demand pressures, capacity constraints, and fluctuating costs.

To discuss the current situation and how Metro can support your North American supply chain, please EMAIL Andrew Smith, Chief Commercial Officer.