ULD on tarmac

Continued Airfreight Growth Amid Emerging Challenges

Nov 6, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global air freight markets have continued to post positive year-on-year growth through September and October, reinforced by stronger than anticipated build up to peak season volumes, but recent indicators point to a moderating pace and emerging challenges that merit close attention.

While recent data points to a slowdown in momentum, overall performance remains solid, underpinned by stable demand, improved belly capacity and expanding connectivity on Asia-Europe and Trans-Pacific routes.

September: Stronger Demand and Broad-Based Recovery

According to IATA’s latest data, global air cargo demand rose nearly 3% year-on-year in September, with international volumes up 3.2%. Capacity grew by roughly 3%, maintaining a healthy balance between supply and demand. The Asia-Pacific region led the expansion with a 6.8% increase in volumes, while Europe recorded a 2.5% rise and Africa posted double-digit growth.

Growth was especially strong on the Europe–Asia (up over 12%) and 10% up within Asia corridors, reflecting continued confidence among exporters and manufacturers leveraging airfreight for time-sensitive and high-value cargo. With global manufacturing activity steadying and cross-border trade recovering, September marked one of the most stable months of the year for international air logistics.

October: Consistent Throughput Amid Changing Conditions

Preliminary October data shows global air cargo volumes continuing to rise (around 4% higher than last year) indicating that demand remains robust heading into the traditional year-end peak. Industry analysts note that the pace of expansion is easing slightly as the market adjusts to higher passenger aircraft capacity and shifting economic conditions, but the overall picture remains positive.

Regional patterns are mixed: Asia continues to drive growth, supported by strong eCommerce flows and resilient intra-regional trade, while the transatlantic market remains steady. Importantly, network connectivity and schedule reliability have improved further, helping shippers achieve greater predictability and shorter transit times across major gateways.

Outlook: Stable, Predictable and Customer-Focused

While the pace of growth is slowing, there are reasons for optimism, including sustained peak season volumes, robust growth across key Asian and African corridors, and ongoing demand from eCommerce and modal shifts due to ocean shipping disruption.

The industry faces headwinds from weakening rate trends and demand imbalances, but steady year-on-year increases, even as momentum tapers, position air freight for a resilient conclusion to 2025.

Overall, air cargo remains on a positive trajectory, delivering growth despite moderating demand and evolving market challenges, with adaptability and strategic planning key for stakeholders navigating this dynamic landscape.

With demand steady and networks evolving, securing lift and predictability is all about smart planning. Metro’s air team proactively monitors capacity, fine-tunes routings, and works with trusted carrier partners to keep your cargo moving—reliably and on time.

Our platform adds real-time confidence with flight telemetry that delivers:

  • Live aircraft position and route mapping
  • Accurate departure/arrival confirmation
  • Time-stamped milestones, updated in real time

Plan with certainty, optimise inventory, and protect service levels—even when conditions change.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to explore smarter, faster, and more resilient air-freight solutions powered by live data and long-standing carrier relationships.

Suez convoy

When the Suez Canal Comes Back Online: Hidden Risks for Supply Chains

Oct 28, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

With hopes rising of stabilising conflict in the Red Sea region, analysts are increasingly considering what it would mean if shipping lines resume full use of the Suez Canal route, and it’s not all good news. 

While the shorter route from Asia to Europe might seem like a logistical boon, the modelling suggests there are several material pitfalls ahead that shippers need to be aware of.

Since late 2023, container shipping lines operating on Asia–Europe and Asia–North America routes have avoided the Suez Canal, opting instead to sail around the Cape of Good Hope. This detour has extended transit times and absorbed a significant amount of global container capacity. According to Sea-Intelligence, a full and immediate return to the Suez Canal could release up to 2.1 million TEU of capacity, equivalent to around 6.5 % of the global fleet, back into circulation.

However, this sudden release would create a powerful surge of imports into Europe. Modelling suggests that if all carriers reverted to Suez routing at once, inbound volumes from Asia could double for a period of up to two weeks, pushing overall port handling demand almost 40 % higher than previous peaks. 

Even if the transition were more gradual, spread over six to eight weeks, European ports would still face throughput levels around 10 % above historical highs, straining terminal operations, inland connections, and storage capacity.

Key Areas of Risk

  • European Port Congestion and Hinterland Strain
    European ports are already under pressure. A sudden import surge could stretch terminal capacity, yard space, and inland networks, leading to delays, higher handling costs, and increased demurrage.
  • Short-Term Disruption Despite Long-Term Gains
    While the Suez route offers shorter transits and lower fuel use, the transition back is complex. Network structures have been rebuilt around the Cape, and reverting will require major re-engineering, with temporary schedule changes and service disruption.
  • Lingering Risk and Insurance Costs
    The security issues that diverted ships from Suez persist. Even after reopening, residual war-risk premiums and contingency measures could keep operating costs elevated.
  • Capacity Overshoot and Rate Pressure
    Releasing 2.1 million TEU of capacity is likely to swing supply–demand balance, pushing rates down and while shippers may benefit in the short-term, it is likely that carriers would take drastic action to protect margins.
  • Timing and Readiness
    The timing of a full return remains uncertain. Analysts stress that rushing back before networks and ports are ready could trigger fresh disruption rather than restoring stability.

Metro’s sea freight team are already modelling reopening scenarios to ensure capacity, routing, and contingency plans are ready when trade flows shift back through the Suez Canal. 

EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith to arrange a strategic review of your shipping patterns, risk exposure, and options to protect service continuity and cost efficiency when routes realign.

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Blank Sailings, GRIs and a Typhoon Disrupt Asia Shipping

Sep 30, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

Shippers moving goods out of Asia are bracing for the tightest space and schedule disruptions as the major container shipping lines accelerate blank sailings in the lead-up to China’s extended Golden Week holidays.

Following weeks of tentative planning, lines have now confirmed broad capacity withdrawals, cancelling between 14–17% of sailings on core Asia–Europe and Asia–US routes to offset softer demand amid seasonal and weather challenges.

The unprecedented combination of Golden Week and the Mid-Autumn Festival has pushed factory shutdowns to an eight-day stretch this year, pausing exports at the world’s manufacturing hub.

Just days before the holiday, Super Typhoon Ragasa hammered South China, triggering port closures, flight cancellations, and severe equipment shortages. Local experts now expect cargo backlogs and shipping delays to stack up for at least a week beyond the holiday’s official end, intensifying the regional congestion and supply chain volatility.

Carrier Alliances Adjust Rapidly

Analysis of carrier announcements reveals distinct strategies among the largest ocean alliances. Early movers blanked sailings soon after market signals softened, while others opted for aggressive, late-stage cuts in the final pre-holiday weeks. Whether by steady withdrawals or front-loaded cancellations, overall capacity reductions are now on par with historical Golden Week patterns, yet the scale and timing of adjustments this year dwarf previous years and reflect the urgent need for carriers to rebalance supply with dampened demand.

In parallel with capacity cuts, carriers are moving to restore profitability through new general rate increases (GRIs). One major line has announced GRIs effective from early October:

  • Far East–North Europe: $1,200 per 20ft and $2,000 per 40ft.
  • Far East–West Mediterranean: $1,750 per 20ft and $2,500 per 40ft.
  • Far East–East Mediterranean: $1,800–$2,150 per 20ft and $2,600–$2,700 per 40ft, depending on destination.

Meanwhile, another leading carrier has confirmed a peak season surcharge on the westbound transatlantic, at $400 per 20ft and $600 per 40ft.

These surcharges highlight how quickly pricing can swing when capacity is withheld and seasonal demand shifts.

Adding to the disruption, last week’s Typhoon Ragasa forced widespread factory closures and halted container movements across South China. Surges in trucking and equipment charges at origin have been exacerbated by the post-typhoon scramble.

Why Carriers Blank Sailings

Blank sailings, a carrier’s decision to skip or cancel specific port calls, or even entire voyages, are a crucial tool for controlling costs and freight market stability. These cancellations can occur due to falling demand, port congestion, storms, mechanical breakdowns, or as part of a calculated strategy to support freight rates in an oversupplied market.

Blank sailings happen for several reasons:

  • Low demand – such as after Chinese New Year or Golden Week.
  • Port congestion – strikes, bottlenecks, or canal delays.
  • Weather disruptions – storms or unsafe docking conditions.
  • Mechanical issues – urgent vessel repairs.
  • Market strategy – cutting supply to stabilise freight rates.
  • Regulatory or political disruption – new rules or regional instability.

The Shipper’s Challenge

Blank sailings mean longer lead times, unpredictable offloads, and more frequent cargo rollovers. Freight may get rerouted, remain at origin for extended periods, or be consolidated on later vessels, driving both and planning complexity up.

To keep shipments moving and mitigate delays, shippers should:

  • Build more time buffers into supply chain schedules during holiday and storm periods.
  • Use tracking and analytics tools for early indications of disruption.
  • Diversify carriers, prioritising reliability and fast rerouting capabilities.
  • Communicate proactively about possible delivery delays.
  • Explore alternative transport modes for urgent consignments.

With volumes likely to stay subdued until the seasonal year-end surge, further blank sailings could be triggered in response to lingering congestion and uneven recovery.

The weeks ahead demand vigilance, agility, and close collaboration.

At Metro, we work hand-in-hand with our network and carrier partners across China to keep your cargo moving, even when the market is disrupted. From time-sensitive shipments to sudden blankings, our sea freight team finds the capacity and alternative solutions you need.

By sharing forecasts on critical dates and volumes, you’ll help us secure the right space to safeguard your supply chains and shield you from looming GRIs.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to explore how we can protect your ex-Asia supply chains and insulate you from threatened GRIs.

Ho Chi Minh 1440x1080 1

Asia Pacific Freight Markets Reshape as Tariffs Shift Trade Flows

Sep 3, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Air and sea freight in the Asia Pacific region is at the centre of global freight realignments, as eCommerce and feeder shipping operations are reshaped by recent policy changes in the US. 

Adjustments to tariff rules and the elimination of duty exemptions have pushed shippers to reconsider sourcing strategies, shifting some flows from China to other Asia Pacific markets while amplifying pressure on already-congested sea and air networks.

Air cargo: eCommerce realignment

The removal of de minimis exemptions on China–US eCommerce shipments has sharply reduced volumes from mainland China and Hong Kong to the US, while boosting flows from alternative Asia Pacific origins and into Europe.

Airlines across the region reported strong growth in July, as exporters diverted shipments to avoid tariff penalties and took advantage of front-loading opportunities during temporary pauses in tariff implementation.

This shift highlights the growing role of Asia Pacific beyond China in meeting US and European demand, with trade lanes from Southeast Asia and emerging eCommerce hubs gaining traction. While China remains dominant in cross-border online trade, its reduced share of US-bound volumes has accelerated diversification across the region.

Sea freight: Feeder bottlenecks

At the same time, feeder shortages in Southeast Asia are disrupting supply chains, delaying transshipments and creating congestion at major hubs including Singapore (operating near 90% yard capacity), Shanghai, Ningbo and Port Klang.

Shippers are being forced to secure space weeks in advance, with rolled cargo and high yard density compounding the disruption.

The surge in demand from Southeast Asia, partly driven by tariff-related cargo diversions, has stretched feeder capacity, with carriers prioritising direct lanes over transshipment-heavy routings. For US exporters, this has meant greater scrutiny over which cargoes are accepted, adding uncertainty to already fragile trade flows.

Implications for US and European businesses

For US and European importers, these developments underline the risks of over-reliance on single-source markets, as both regulatory shifts and operational pressures can disrupt established flows. For exporters, feeder constraints and selective carrier acceptance policies may limit market access and slow supply chains out of Asia.

Diversification of sourcing, earlier booking strategies, and closer collaboration with supply chain stakeholders is essential in navigating these disruptions. With eCommerce volumes continuing to grow and Asia Pacific playing a more pivotal role, freight strategies must evolve to maintain resilience and competitiveness.

Metro gives you the visibility, agility, and expertise to adapt to shifting trade flows and capacity constraints. EMAIL managing director, Andy Smith, today to strengthen your supply chain and secure your freight movements across Asia Pacific, the US and Europe.

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