strike at port

Ongoing labour disputes threaten global supply chains

Sep 4, 2024 | , , , , , , , ,

While recent developments in India and Canada suggest some relief from labour disputes, the threat of strikes continues to loom over port operations and global supply chains. The situation remains precarious, especially with the added complications from Red Sea diversions, which could magnify the impact of any further industrial action.

Typically, strikes at ports and other supply chain hubs cause only localised disruptions. However, the current climate is fraught with uncertainty. Sea-Intelligence has warned that even a single day of strike action on the U.S. East Coast could create a six-day backlog to clear containers.

If a strike were to last a week in early October, its effects might not be fully resolved until mid-November, while a two-week strike’s impact might be felt well into 2025, further straining already fragile supply chains.

Recent resolutions

Canada
The Canadian government acted within a day to end a rail strike that began on 23rd August, ordering Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN) to resume operations and enter binding arbitration with the Teamsters Union. The Canada Industrial Relations Board extended expired collective agreements until new ones are finalised, temporarily safeguarding the supply chain.

However, the union has challenged this decision by filing four separate appeals with the Federal Court of Appeal, suggesting that the risk of further strike action may not be entirely averted.

India
Potential nationwide strike action involving 12 major ports from the 28th August was avoided when the government agreed to wage increases and additional benefits for around 20,000 port workers. Union leaders insist that the strike threat played a crucial role in securing the deal, preventing significant disruption during the peak export season.

Ongoing threats

Germany
The threat of strikes at major ports remains, as the trade union ver.di has rejected the latest offer from the Central Association of German Seaport Operators (ZDS). With the contract now expired, warning strikes have already occurred in key ports such as Hamburg and Bremerhaven. Ver.di is pressing ZDS to return to negotiations with a more substantial offer, raising concerns about potential disruptions if an agreement is not reached soon.

United States
The risk of strikes at East and Gulf Coast ports is growing, with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) threatening action from 1st October. Container spot rates from Asia to the U.S. have remained high, and carriers acknowledge that a strike could sustain these elevated rates through the end of the year.

The ILA has been holding ‘wage scale meetings’ in New Jersey this week, where delegates are reviewing master contract demands and preparing strike committees from Maine to Texas in anticipation of the 1st October deadline.

East Coast port employers, represented by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), have stated that they have been unable to secure a meeting with the ILA but remain committed to negotiating a new agreement with the union’s leadership.

The early peak season, driven by shippers eager to front-load holiday goods, has already caused concerns about overcapacity. A strike could exacerbate these issues, leaving carriers with limited options to mitigate the impact.

As negotiations remain tense and the risk of disruptions continues to grow, businesses and supply chain managers must stay vigilant and proactive in their planning. Unresolved labour disputes could have significant consequences for global trade, particularly as the year-end approaches.

We have contingency plans in place to avoid ports likely to be most affected by strikes, as well as alternative routes and entry points. Please share your forecasts as early as possible so that we can mitigate possible issues ahead of time.

To discuss these issues and how Metro can protect your supply chain, please EMAIL Andrew Smith, Chief Commercial Officer.

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Challenges in ocean freight: Capacity, congestion, and resilience

Sep 4, 2024 | , , , , , , ,

The ongoing disruption in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, which started with the hijacking of a vessel nearly ten months ago, has led to a substantial reduction in available container vessel capacity, driving up freight rates, intensifying port congestion, and exacerbating equipment shortages.

The impact of this crisis, second only to the pandemic, has caused widespread disruptions, with global ocean freight continuing to grapple with significant challenges.

Blanked sailings
To counter the drop in demand and falling container spot rates, ocean carriers are implementing a high number of blanked sailings, particularly ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday. The cancellation rate for scheduled sailings in September is currently 10% across major trade routes, with the transpacific accounting for 51%, Asia-Europe 28%, and the transatlantic 21%.

Despite the recent softening, freight rates remain significantly higher than last year – +350% on the Asia-North Europe route and +150-180% on Transpacific routes. Events such as the looming threat of port strikes, the introduction of new import tariffs and an early Chinese New Year could keep rates elevated, even in the face of softer demand.

US West coast volume surge
As the peak shipping season approaches, the US West Coast ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are preparing for a surge in import volumes.
Ocean carriers are deploying 28 additional “extra-loader” vessels to handle the expected influx, driven by strong consumer demand and the diversion of cargo from the US East and Gulf coasts due to potential labour disruptions.

Economic resilience is likely to sustain high import levels through the end of the year, further increasing activity at these key ports.

Ongoing Port congestion
Global port congestion remains challenging with hot spots in Asia and India in particular. The delivery of new container ships and fewer overall blank sailings in recent weeks, along with the Red Sea diversions, are absorbing the added capacity and demand remains high, resulting in vessel bunching and berthing delays at major ports in China, the USA and South America.

The risk of further supply chain disruptions persists, with potential threats from labour strikes and the increasing impact of severe weather events linked to climate change.

Red Sea diversions soak up equipment
Container equipment situation in Asia, and China in particular, remains challenging but is improving with India now becoming the main hotspot.
Ocean carriers and container leasing companies have booked all available container production slots at Chinese manufacturers until mid-October, following record-high deliveries earlier in the year. In the first seven months of 2024 alone, container deliveries increased tenfold compared to the same period in 2023.

The availability of 40ft high-cube containers has tightened significantly, putting additional pressure on carriers and manufacturers to meet delivery schedules amid strong export growth from Asia and ongoing port congestion.

As the industry navigates these complex challenges, the focus remains on managing capacity, stabilising operations, and mitigating the risks posed by economic and environmental factors.

Ongoing demand for ocean freight and challenges in capacity suggest a complex and potentially turbulent peak season ahead.

We recommend talking to us now, if you have high-priority orders and sharing your shipping forecasts, so that we can secure your space, on the services that meet your deadlines, at the best possible rates.
To learn how we can safeguard and enhance your ocean supply chain, please EMAIL our Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Smith. 

Long Beach 1

US supply chains face multiple threats

Aug 19, 2024 | , , , , , ,

Importers are entering a critical period, with looming labour disputes, capacity pressures, and surges in maritime and airfreight volumes are creating challenges that could disrupt supply chains well into the fourth quarter.

Demand surge
The Port of Los Angeles handled a record-breaking 940k TEU in July, up 37% YoY, with the US’ largest container gateway 18% ahead of 2023 volumes.

US imports from Asia have been climbing for 10 consecutive months, with no sign of slowing down. A surge in import volumes is expected in August as businesses have been front-loading shipments ahead of a potential ILA strike.

Analysts had originally predicted a tapering of imports during the traditional peak season from August to October, but the market is now expecting year-over-year increases in monthly imports through the end of 2024.

The increase in trans-Atlantic import volumes has not completely eased pressure for space, with a 7% growth in volume during H1 2024 and the container shipping lines announcing peak season surcharges (PSS) for 1st September.

Ocean capacity
Since early July, capacity constraints on the West Coast have begun to ease, thanks to the launch and reintroduction of at least ten services. This shift has widened the rate differential between East and West coast ports, with East Coast rates now nearly 50% higher, the largest gap seen since October 2022.

However, East Coast spot rates may soften in the latter half of August if demand drops, because importers have been front-loading shipments to leave Asia in time for Black Friday sales and to avoid disruption posed by a looming strike. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) contract with East and Gulf Coast maritime employers is set to expire on 30th September, and nothing has been agreed to take its place.

ILA strike
The potential for an ILA strike has become a major concern for the shipping industry. The ILA is demanding a nearly 80% wage increase over the next six years, a proposal that maritime employers have yet to agree upon.

With the union issuing a 60-day strike notice, the possibility of industrial action is growing, with ILA locals from the East and Gulf coasts expected to meet early September to finalise strike strategies. ILA President Harold Daggett has made it clear that members will not continue working beyond the contract’s expiration if their demands are not met.

Canadian rail strike
Canada faces potential industrial action at its two main freight rail companies, Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), starting Thursday 22nd August. Both companies plan to lock out union workers due to stalled labour negotiations.

The Teamsters union has issued strike notices, and without last-minute agreements, a work stoppage is expected. US operations will continue.

From 20th August, CPKC has said it will stop all shipments that start in Canada and all shipments originating in the US that are headed for Canada, while CN, meanwhile, has barred container imports from US partner railroads.

Both rail companies have said that their trains running in the US will continue to work.

The shutdown will disrupt freight movements to and from the West Coast ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert. Contingency plans include using long-haul trucks or rerouting cargo through US railroads via Seattle.

Airfreight pressure
If port strikes do occur, they will inevitably spill over into the airfreight sector, leading to a significant spike in demand. However, with airfreight is already under massive pressure from heightened eCommerce activity driven by platforms like Shein and Temu.

Shein alone now accounts for about 20% of global fast-fashion sales, filling 50 to 80 freighter aircraft daily with shipments from China to the US.

An ILA strike would likely exacerbate these capacity constraints, as “distressed” ocean cargo seeks expedited transport, further tightening airfreight capacity. Rates are already surging, with trans-Pacific spot rates up 70% year over year, levels typically seen during Q4 and carriers considering peak season surcharges at the beginning of September.

With all these factors in play, Q4 is shaping up to be a challenging period for US supply chains. If you have any concerns about these potential disruptions, we are available to review your situation, explore your options, and develop contingency plans where necessary.

To learn how we can support your trade with the United States or for more information about our ocean solutions, please EMAIL our Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Smith.

LA an d Long Beach

US market update: Navigating high demand and looming strikes

Aug 7, 2024 | , , , , , ,

Shippers in the US are currently navigating a particularly challenging landscape, marked by elevated air cargo demand and looming threats of labour strikes on the East and Gulf coasts.

Air Cargo
Air cargo on the main trade lanes out of Asia remains in peak season mode. The situation is driven by distressed cargo from the Red Sea and sustained eCommerce demand, keeping spot rates high. The recent global IT outage at Microsoft, which caused massive flight delays, cancellations, and cargo backlogs, did not significantly impact the air freight market. Cargo load factors returned to normal levels within ten days.

Air freight rates from Shanghai to North America are currently 25% higher than last year. Growth in air cargo demand is expected to continue into August and September, with potential for further increases if the peak season extends into the fourth quarter.

Sea freight and the threat of East and Gulf coast strikes
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is seeking an 80% wage increase over its next six-year contract with maritime employers on the East and Gulf coasts. The ILA has issued a 60-day strike notice to the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), warning of strike action by its 45,000 members if a new deal is not reached before the current contract expires at the end of September.

The ILA’s wage demand is significantly higher than previous agreements and follows other union victories in contract negotiations. Shippers using container ports along the US East and Gulf coasts have limited options if the ILA begins strike action on 1st October. Importers are advised to front-load cargo to these ports as outbound capacity from Asia has been tight for several weeks. Space on vessels needs to be booked immediately to ensure arrival by 30th September.

Canadian routings for inbound cargo are increasingly uncertain due to the threat of a country-wide rail strike, while diversions through Mexico present significant logistical challenges, including limited vessel space. Short ILA stoppages can be managed with East Coast ports capable of clearing backlogs quickly. However, prolonged stoppages of a week or more could take a month to recover from, causing widespread disruption.

Diverting services to avoid the US East and Gulf coasts poses its own challenges. West Coast capacity and container equipment shortages are likely to worsen, with US imports expected to increase by 14% year-on-year in August and resilient consumer spending maintaining demand. The current rate differential between East and West coasts is the widest since October 2022 but is expected to narrow as East Coast spot rates decline ahead of the potential ILA strike.

Carriers are booked through mid-August to the East Coast, keeping rates high at least for the next few weeks. However, this will change rapidly if the ILA takes action. Spot rates to the West, East, or Gulf coasts are unlikely to fluctuate significantly in the event there is no ILA strike. Additionally, no significant drop in rates is expected during the traditionally slow months of November and December.

Canadian Railways and unions resume contract talks
Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City have resumed separate contract talks with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference, representing nearly 10,000 railroad workers. Negotiations began last November but have yet to produce a new contract to replace the agreement that expired at the end of last year.

The Canada Industrial Relations Board is investigating whether a work stoppage would impact Canadians’ health and safety, with an announcement expected by Friday. While railroad workers cannot legally strike until 72 hours after the board’s ruling, the union has indicated that a work stoppage is likely by the end of August. A strike by Canada’s railroad workers would disrupt the daily movement of more than 900,000 metric tons of goods on Canada’s railways.

The US market is experiencing significant challenges in both air and sea freight sectors. With elevated air cargo demand and potential labour strikes on the East and Gulf coasts, strategic planning is more crucial than ever for shippers.

We are here to keep you informed and act proactively to help you navigate these turbulent times, ensuring the smooth movement of goods through your supply chain.

If you have concerns about potential ILA strike action, we can assess your situation and, if necessary, develop contingency plans to safeguard your import traffic. By exploring alternative access ports and adopting a collaborative approach, we will provide optimal solutions to meet your supply chain needs.

To learn how we can support your trade with the United States or for more information about our ocean solutions, please EMAIL our Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Smith.

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