LHR BA landing

Air Cargo Demand Grows Strongly in Q2 2024 – and will continue for the rest of the year

Jul 10, 2024 | , , , , , , , ,

Robust growth in global air cargo markets for April 2024 marks a strong start to the second quarter, with airfreight rates on key trades out of Asia remaining “firm” in June, despite the market entering the traditional quieter summer period or ‘slack season’. Quite simply there isn’t one.

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), rose in double-digits compared to April 2023. This marks the fifth consecutive month of double-digit annual growth. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), grew by 7.1% compared to April 2023, with international capacity up by 10.2%.

Despite economic uncertainties, air cargo demand remains strong, with the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output and new export orders turning positive in April, indicating growth. This is the first time in two years that new export orders have been risen, suggesting a robust outlook for air cargo for the rest of the year and likely beyond.

Key economic factors

  • April PMIs for global manufacturing output and new export orders were 51.5 and 50.5, respectively
  • Industrial production increased by 1.6% year-on-year in March
  • Inflation remained stable in major economies: US (3.4%), EU (2.6%), Japan (2.5%), and China (0.2%)

Regional Performance in April

  • Asia-Pacific – Demand grew by 14.0% year-on-year
  • North America – Demand increased by 7.0% year-on-year
  • Europe – Demand rose by 12.7% year-on-year
  • Middle East – Demand increased by 9.4% year-on-year
  • Latin America – Demand grew by 11.7% year-on-year
  • Africa – Demand rose by 10.6% year-on-year

That’s a lot of stats but we are demonstrating the consistent demand and growth in what should be a soft period. eCommerce is a huge contributor to the above absorbing any excess capacity on scheduled carriers and adding hundreds of dedicated charters a week into the market. This has an impact on general air cargo and through supply and demand dynamics pushes the prices up, or certainly does not allow them to fall.

Spot rate index round-up
The Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index (BAI) shows that rates from Hong Kong to both Europe and North America remained up on a year ago and also increased slightly compared with May levels.

From Hong Kong to North America, the average spot rate in June was up nearly 17% compared with a year earlier, while Hong Kong to Europe, rates in June increased over 22% year on year.

The market has remained surprisingly strong through what is normally a low season in the year, as extra belly-hold capacity comes on stream for the summer, reflecting continuing robust eCommerce activity.

Rates are also significantly higher year on year out of some other big markets in Asia, notably from India and Vietnam and particularly on lanes to Europe.

Generally we are seeing huge demand on most inbound lanes into Europe on air freight with congestion at global hubs still prevalent.

Unlike the ocean freight theory that the market is busy due to restocking (and of course the Red Sea/Suez Canal effective closure) this idea does not make sense for air freight and time critical cargo. It’s simply a case of higher demand and not enough capacity so the signs are for a remarkably busy traditional peak season from September through to Chinese New Year.

Let us get prepared for this and discuss your requirements for known air freight, or possible/expected delayed ‘distressed’ ocean freight, that will need to be sped up in the supply chain.

For urgent, valuable and sensitive shipments we have a range of airfreight, charter, sea/air and land-bridge solutions, with block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA) that protect space and capacity on the busiest routes.

Regardless of your cargo type, size and requirements, we have extremely competitive rate and service combinations, to meet every deadline and budget. Please speak to us. With visibility and planning we will always deliver your product when required.

EMAIL Elliot Carlile, Operations Director, for insights, prices and advice. 

City of London

Market Stability Following Labour’s Victory

Jul 10, 2024 | , , ,

The UK financial markets have shown remarkable stability following Labour’s landslide victory in the snap election called by Rishi Sunak. Labour’s win has bolstered investor confidence, with UK stocks, bonds, and sterling all seeing gains.

Since late May, the pound has been the only G10 currency to appreciate against the dollar, highlighting the UK’s appeal in a turbulent global economic climate.

Investors view Labour’s win as a turning point, marking the end of a period of instability under Conservative leadership. This political stability is seen as a positive signal for UK assets, especially as other major economies face political uncertainties.

The substantial majority achieved by Labour suggests the potential for a two-term government, which could lead to consistent and long-term policy implementation, including crucial planning reforms that could boost the UK economy.

UK’s Comparative Attractiveness
The UK’s calm financial environment contrasts sharply with the situation in France, where political turmoil has unnerved investors. The rise of the far right and President Emmanuel Macron’s unexpected decision to call an election have led to significant declines in French markets, with the Cac 40 stock index dropping nearly 4%. The yield premium on French debt over Germany has surged, reminiscent of the Eurozone debt crisis.

In the UK, the Labour government’s cautious borrowing plans are expected to attract foreign investors to gilts. The stability of UK gilts is further highlighted by the recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market, influenced by political developments and economic policy proposals under the potential second Donald Trump presidency.

The UK’s transformation in the mind of investors can be most clearly seen in the pound. The currency has been the best performer across the Group-of-10 this year and a gauge of expected price swings on sterling over the coming month fell to 5.76% last week, its lowest since May.

Challenges and Future Outlook
Despite the newfound stability, Labour faces significant challenges in delivering on its promises amid tight borrowing constraints and modest economic growth forecasts. Rachel Reeves, the incoming chancellor, has committed to maintaining debt reduction targets, limiting the scope for increased borrowing.

To address these challenges, Labour will need to focus on supply-side reforms aimed at stimulating investment, improving productivity and international trade. A softer approach towards the European Union might marginally enhance growth and trade prospects, though the extent of EU cooperation remains uncertain.

The relative calm in UK markets provides a contrast to the turmoil seen elsewhere, positioning the UK as a potential safe haven for investors seeking stability in a volatile global economic landscape.

How does this affect your logistics planning?

  • FX is stable – always a good thing to ensure predictability with currency exchange. Remember the Liz Truss impact a few years back – very painful
  • Probably closer and more desirable trading terms with the EU. Which has already been stated by the new government as an objective
  • Possibly better trade deals with other countries around the world, created through an energised and proactive approach by the government
  • More investment in UK infrastructure and logistics related routes to market, including the rail and energy markets

These are just a few of the potential benefits, but reality is, time will tell. One thing you can rely on is that as the evolution occurs Metro will be at the forefront of the market ensuring that you gain benefit with your own business strategy and global trading opportunities. We will adapt, as we always do.

We are constantly monitoring and sharing the latest news on market influences, including currency FX and macro-economic performances, which can impact our customers supply chains.

We follow the barometers of global trade and money markets and are happy to share knowledge, to help you de-risk currency fluctuations and achieve the best returns.

For advice and recommendations please EMAIL Laurence Burford, our Chief Financial Officer.

Auto industry Brexit warning

Europe may experience its own near-shoring boom

Jul 10, 2024 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

As planes descend into Monterrey airport, an expanse of warehouses and manufacturing complexes stretches out for miles, exemplifying the near-shoring boom that has swept through Mexico in recent years, as Asian companies and their supply chains move closer to the United States.

Drivers of Mexican Industrial Growth
One might argue that this surge in Mexican industrial production and exports to the US is part of a 30-year evolution, initially driven by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which established a free trade area among Canada, the US, and Mexico.

However, additional factors have recently propelled Mexico to replace China as the US’s most important trading partner.

1. US-China Trade War: Trade has shifted from China to countries like Mexico due to the ongoing trade conflict
2. Biden Administration’s Supply Chain Strategy: Emphasis on near-shoring has highlighted Mexico’s role in the China+1 strategy
3. Production-Sharing Schemes: Mexico’s longstanding expertise in these schemes makes it a valuable partner in regional manufacturing and trade
4. Low Labor Costs: Average manufacturing wages in Mexico are lower than those in China

Ironically, many of the companies that are being set up for manufacturing and transition to Mexico are actually owned by Chinese entities and companies. It is a migration of Chinese manufacturing to Mexico and this also has the benefit of lowering supply chain and shipping costs and the big one – reducing some of the duty and anti-dumping duty that has been, and will likely continue to be, levied on Chinese origin goods and raw materials.

Lessons for Europe
A critical element is the presence of a long-standing free trade agreement, because near-shoring thrives in an environment that fosters supply chain relationships and networks over time and effective near-shoring relies on a regulatory and trading environment that supports such activities. 

Expecting near-shoring to emerge without a developed and supportive environment is unrealistic. The EU, with its well-developed internal free trade and regulatory framework, together with external trade agreements with countries like Egypt and Morocco is well-positioned to adopt near-shoring strategies.

In Europe, geopolitical relations with China are a concern, but recent supply chain disruptions are increasingly driving the adoption of China+1 strategies. Europe has been shifting its manufacturing and supply chain activities eastward and into North Africa.

Opportunity
Countries like Turkey, Hungary, Egypt, Morocco, Poland, and Romania offer compelling near-shoring opportunities due to their lower wage rates and higher productivity compared to Western Europe.

The EU is well-positioned to capitalise on near-shoring activities and so too is the UK, with its close EU ties and inherited trade agreements. This has already been highlighted by the new UK government, as a goal to re-negotiate trade agreements with the EU and could make closer sourcing a more prevalent and cost effective strategy going forward in the next few years.

We are seeing regular migration of manufacturing and sourcing closer to the UK and EU and this has many benefits, as long as the material price is comparable with Far East manufacturing costs, which have been the big incentive.

Metro and our associate companies, are well positioned to give advice, recommendations and adapt supply chains regardless of the areas that you are sourcing from or selling to.

We have a variety of services and solutions covering overland trucking, rail freight, short-sea containerised solutions on our own vessels and local warehousing and distribution at most industrial hubs throughout Europe and North Africa. 

Please arrange a call/meeting and we can go through the current and future options, to add value to your global development strategy. We can guarantee that it will not be time wasted!

Stable, well-regulated trading environments and cost-effective, high-productivity production locations in Central and Eastern Europe and North Africa provide a strong foundation for supporting near-shoring initiatives.

Metro’s integrated transport services are designed to support JIT manufacturing requirements across the EU, North Africa and Turkey and are ideally positioned to support new near-shoring requirements.

Our partner network, multi-modal transport solutions and MVT supply chain platforms are all geared towards supporting an evolving sourcing programme and on-boarding new suppliers. 

If you would like to learn how we can boost your ability to source from alternative manufacturing regions, EMAIL our Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Smith, to arrange a consultation and scoping discussion.

Shanghai port

Port congestion (amongst other things) continues to push rates up

Jun 27, 2024 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

With increasing amounts of ocean freight capacity soaked up by COGH (Cape of Good Hope) diversions and port congestion, spot rates are spiking, with indexes up significantly on 2023 and market led spot/FAK rates up by nearly 500%. Now, carriers desperate for ships and more capacity are setting new chartering records, to try and accommodate the shortfall in supply against demand.

Over 1.6milllion teu of capacity has been added to the global container fleet so far this year, as new vessels have been delivered, and all that new capacity has been fully absorbed by the market’s diversion round the Cape of Good Hope.

So, despite the record-breaking new vessel deliveries, there remains a shortage of capacity and container ships globally, with freight and charter rates continuing to surge ahead as the market enters the traditional summer peak season.

Port disruption and bottlenecks are tying up capacity, which is making already tight vessel availability worse. Analysts suggest that the recent increase in port congestion in Asia and the Mediterranean has taken a further 500,000 teu from circulation, reducing vessel schedule reliability and impacting equipment availability.

The Loadstar reports that 2.5m teu were on ships queueing for berths at ports worldwide last week, which is equivalent to nearly 9% of the global fleet, and the bunching of ships arriving from Asia is creating berthing delays in northern Europe, particularly Rotterdam.

Freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased 11% per feu, while rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles grew 7% and up 3% to New York.

Drewry expects that freight rates from China will continue to rise, due to congestion issues at Asian ports, the continued ongoing situation in the Red Sea and further port delays now occurring around the globe, as an impact of the market conditions.

Ship bunching and congestion has spread to ports in Asia including Port Klang, Shanghai, Qingdao, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and while equipment availability has improved vessels have been waiting up to four days to berth at Shanghai, two days at Qingdao and up to three days at Port Klang.

Singapore’s berthing delays have improved, but there are longer dwell times as carriers discharge more containers to forgo subsequent voyages and catch up on sailing schedules.

Routing away from the Suez Canal means that cargo is now being dropped at western Mediterranean ports for transshipment to the east of the region, with ships having to wait longer for a berth.

In the north of Europe, ports and terminals are performing pretty well, though Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Aarhus have experienced increases in yard densities, with customers requesting to pick up import containers as soon as possible after discharge.

Strikes update
Port workers in Germany implemented a ‘warning’ strike which affected the ports of Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Bremen, Emden, and Brake, and the Verdi trade union has threatened more action if negotiations for a new collective labour agreement do not progress.

After 24 hour stoppages at the container ports of Le Havre and Marseille-Fos, French trade union members had been threatening a month of strikes at major ports, but the snap election called by president Macron means that the Fédération Nationale des Ports et Docks CGT (FNPD) has no-one with whom to negotiate and has therefore suspended action until late September.

We are monitoring all the issues outlined here, while working closely with our local partner office network and carrier partners to mitigate any impact on our customers.

We will keep you updated and provide alternative solutions where appropriate or necessary.

If you have any questions, concerns, or would like any further information regarding the situation outlined here, please EMAIL our Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Smith.

Category: International Trade

International Trade

Latest News in this category