Saudia air

Airfreight demand and Middle East disruption tighten peak-season

Oct 14, 2026 | , , , , , , , , ,

Airfreight markets are entering the fourth-quarter peak season with demand strengthening, capacity tightening on key routes and renewed disruption in the Middle East adding pressure to airline networks and transport costs.

Global air cargo demand recovered strongly in September, with worldwide tonnages increasing 9% year on year, according to WorldACD. Growth was particularly strong across Asia Pacific and North America, where volumes increased 10%.

The recovery reflects continued demand for high-value and time-sensitive shipments, particularly equipment supporting artificial intelligence, data centres and semiconductor manufacturing.

However, the market is becoming increasingly uneven, with trans-Pacific demand accelerating, China–Europe volumes recovering only gradually and Middle East disruption affecting available capacity.

Peak-season demand strengthens despite temporary rate dip

Airfreight rates edged higher throughout September as shippers prepared for the traditional fourth-quarter peak.

Worldwide average rates increased 1% month on month and stood 25% above September 2025 levels, reflecting stronger demand, elevated fuel costs and continuing capacity constraints.

The Baltic Air Freight Index subsequently rose 5% in the week to 5 October before easing 2.1% during China's Golden Week holiday, when factory closures temporarily reduced export volumes.

Despite that decline, the index remained 24.3% higher year on year as the market entered its busiest quarter.

Capacity commitments are already influencing the outlook. Major e-commerce operators and businesses preparing product launches have secured peak-season space, while some large AI infrastructure customers have yet to finalise their requirements.

Additional bookings from these shippers could tighten available capacity and push rates higher during the coming weeks.

AI infrastructure drives trans-Pacific growth

The expansion of AI infrastructure has become a significant driver of air cargo demand, particularly between Asia and North America.

Large volumes of servers, semiconductors, data-centre equipment and energy storage systems are moving from manufacturing centres in Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and China to support US investment in digital infrastructure.

Trans-Pacific airfreight volumes increased 10% year on year in September, with outbound Asian load factors approaching 90%, despite airlines increasing capacity by approximately 10%.

The strength of demand is also influencing airline deployment decisions, with freighters being transferred from other routes to serve the trans-Pacific market.

WorldACD figures reinforce the trend, showing China–US air cargo tonnages increasing 17% year on year in September, while average spot rates rose approximately 30%.

Ocean freight disruption could add further pressure. Schedule reliability from Asia to the US West Coast reportedly fell from 56% in May to just 26% in September, increasing the potential for urgent shipments to transfer to airfreight.

Saudi attacks create further capacity uncertainty

Renewed attacks on Saudi Arabian airports have introduced another source of disruption as the peak season gathers pace.

Following strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and other Saudi facilities, airlines suspended services and authorities imposed operational restrictions.

Initial data showed Riyadh's international outbound air cargo capacity falling 34% over 24 hours, with freighter capacity particularly affected.

Further attacks prompted an extended suspension of operations at Riyadh on 12 October, while Dammam International Airport also experienced disruption.

The immediate consequences extend beyond Saudi Arabia. Airlines operating between Asia and Europe have already been adjusting their networks following wider Middle East disruption, including the loss of established intermediate stops.

Alternative routings can increase flying times, introduce payload restrictions and reduce the effective capacity available to shippers.

With peak-season demand building, prolonged restrictions could intensify competition for available space, particularly on routes connecting Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

China–Europe recovery remains uneven

While trans-Pacific demand continues to strengthen, the China–Europe market presents a different picture.

Combined air cargo volumes from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe fell 10% year on year in September, although this represented an improvement on declines of 14% in July and 15% in August.

The downturn reflects changes to EU treatment of low-value e-commerce imports, which have affected shipments from Hong Kong and southern China.

Hong Kong–Europe tonnages remained 24% below September 2025 levels, while mainland China recorded a more modest 2% decline.

Rates have reflected this divergence, with China–Europe average prices increasing approximately 9% year on year in September, compared with a 30% increase in China–US spot rates.

The figures highlight how demand, regulation and available capacity are creating increasingly different conditions across major airfreight corridors.

Planning ahead as capacity tightens

The fourth-quarter outlook points towards sustained demand, particularly on trans-Pacific routes, with further potential for rate increases as remaining peak-season capacity is committed.

Saudi Arabian disruption adds uncertainty to an already constrained market, while higher fuel costs and shifting airline networks could affect availability and pricing across other trade lanes.

For shippers, early planning, accurate forecasts and flexibility over routing and departure dates will be increasingly important.

Metro's global airfreight network, airline relationships and experienced operational teams help customers secure capacity, assess alternative routings and respond quickly when market conditions change.

Whether managing regular shipments, urgent requirements or time-critical cargo, Metro combines international buying power with local expertise and shipment visibility to keep supply chains moving.

Contact Metro's airfreight team to review your peak-season requirements, protect critical shipments and identify the most effective options before capacity becomes constrained.

Forklift loading container

Asia–UK ocean market faces volatile October as capacity shifts

Sep 30, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

UK importers face an unusually volatile October as falling Asia–Europe freight rates collide with excess scheduled capacity, returning Suez services, short-notice blank sailings and continuing disruption across Asian ports.

Ocean carriers are attempting to halt a 12-week decline in Asia–Europe rates with increases planned for the second half of October. However, the traditional slowdown following China's Golden Week (1–7 October) could make those increases difficult to sustain unless carriers withdraw significant capacity.

For shippers, lower underlying demand may therefore bring temporarily cheaper freight but not necessarily more reliable supply chains.

Golden Week creates a capacity imbalance

Asia–North Europe scheduled capacity is unusually high. Around 1.5m TEU is scheduled across the four-week Golden Week period, 27% more than last year and 60% above pre-pandemic averages.

But those figures overstate the amount of genuinely new capacity entering the market.

Typhoon disruption and severe congestion at Chinese ports have pushed vessels significantly behind schedule. As delayed ships return to service alongside their normally scheduled counterparts, 12 double sailings are expected across Asia–Europe and Mediterranean services during the first two weeks of October.

At the same time, Golden Week factory closures will reduce export volumes.

The result could be a rapid shift from constrained effective capacity to temporary oversupply as delayed vessels return and cargo volumes fall.

Carriers are likely to respond with significant blank sailings, potentially announced at relatively short notice. That could leave mid-to-late October schedules particularly vulnerable to cancellations, rolled cargo and departure changes.

Suez return adds more effective capacity

The gradual return of Asia–Europe services to the Suez Canal adds another variable.

Faster Suez routings effectively release vessel capacity because ships can complete round voyages considerably faster than when sailing around the Cape of Good Hope.

Asia–North Europe services remain cautious, but the shift is gathering pace. Around 30% of backhaul capacity was using Suez during September, with this expected to reach approximately 40% in October.

Several additional services are now moving back to the canal, primarily to return delayed vessels to Asia more quickly following severe port congestion.

For UK importers, increased Suez utilisation could eventually support shorter transit times and greater capacity. In the immediate term, however, changing vessel rotations and the possibility of further network adjustments add even more uncertainty to schedules.

Security conditions in the Red Sea also remain fluid, meaning carriers retain the option of reverting to Cape routings if their risk assessments change.

Reliability remains the bigger concern

Freight rates from Asia to North Europe have been under pressure for some time, which is why carriers have announced increases for the second half of October in an attempt to reverse that trend.

But price is only part of the equation. Multiple typhoons in seven weeks created severe disruption at Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan and Yantian, with berthing delays extending up to 14 days, with on-time performance on services falling to just 62% in August, while average delays for late Asia–Europe vessels reached five days.

Residual disruption is expected to continue through October as vessel bunching, accumulated container backlogs and post-Golden Week capacity adjustments work through the network.

The immediate risk for UK importers is therefore less about a shortage of nominal vessel capacity and more about whether booked capacity operates when expected.

European disruption adds another risk

Conditions at destination also require attention. German port workers are currently voting on authorisation for indefinite strike action after rejecting the latest employer wage offer. The ballot closes on 1 October, with Hamburg, Bremen, Bremerhaven and other major German ports potentially affected if industrial action follows.

German freight interests are already preparing for possible restrictions affecting terminal handling and pre- and on-carriage.

While this does not directly affect UK ports, significant disruption at major North European gateways could create wider network effects as carriers adjust rotations and cargo moves through alternative ports.

The transatlantic market is moving differently. Europe–US East Coast spot rates remain substantially above last year's levels, while carriers are managing winter capacity through blank sailings. This makes early allocation planning particularly important for exporters relying on North Atlantic services.

Flexibility will matter through Q4

October therefore presents an unusual combination for Asia–UK shippers.

Underlying rates are soft, substantial scheduled capacity is entering the market and shorter Suez routings are gradually restoring effective vessel supply. Yet congestion, poor schedule reliability and likely carrier capacity management mean the operational environment could remain unpredictable, with rates likely to harden.

Shippers should consequently avoid interpreting softer rates as a signal that the market has normalised.

Metro's established carrier relationships and extensive global network give our teams access to multiple services, routings and consolidation options across the Asia–UK trade. By monitoring capacity, schedules and gateway conditions, we can identify alternatives when blank sailings, congestion or network changes threaten planned movements.

Talk to Metro about your Q4 Asia–UK requirements and how alternative carriers, routings and consolidation options can provide greater flexibility as the market adjusts.

Aircraft and moon

Airfreight market strengthens as peak season nears

Sep 30, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global air cargo demand and rates are strengthening ahead of the traditional peak season, with rising volumes, firm pricing and higher fuel costs creating a more robust market as October begins.

The latest TAC Index and WorldACD data point to increasing momentum as the industry moves towards its busiest months, although conditions continue to vary significantly by trade lane.

The global Baltic Air Freight Index gained a further 0.6% in the seven days to 28 September, extending a series of modest weekly increases and leaving rates nearly 22% above the same point last year.

Meanwhile, WorldACD recorded a fourth consecutive weekly increase in global chargeable weight in week 38, with tonnages rising 2% week on week and 8% year on year.

Demand builds across major origin markets

The underlying demand picture is increasingly positive. Asia Pacific remained one of the strongest contributors, with origin tonnages 11% higher year on year. North American volumes increased 14% week on week following the Labor Day dip and were 8% above last year's level, while European origin volumes were 6% higher year on year.

Rates are also substantially above 2025 levels. WorldACD's average worldwide full-market rate was 24% higher year on year in week 38, while average spot rates were 33% higher.

Asia Pacific spot rates were 30% above last year, with Europe up 29% and North America 34%.

TAC Index data for the following week suggests that firmness continued into the end of September, with its global index extending its year-on-year increase to 21.7%.

The backdrop is being reinforced by significantly higher fuel costs. TAC reported that jet fuel prices were 106% above their level a year earlier by 25 September, adding another source of upward pressure as the market approaches peak.

Asia markets gather momentum

Asia is likely to be central to the developing peak-season picture. TAC recorded a 3% weekly increase in its Hong Kong outbound index during the week to 28 September, taking it 20.6% above last year. Rates from India also increased strongly, while China-Europe pricing continued to firm as the market adjusted following changes affecting low-value parcel traffic.

WorldACD similarly recorded further increases in Asia Pacific-Europe spot rates during week 38, including gains from mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.

The transpacific remains particularly strong. Asia Pacific-US demand was 13% higher year on year, including significant growth from South Korea, Japan and China. Average spot rates on the trade were broadly stable week on week but approximately 40% above their level a year earlier.

The picture towards Europe is more mixed. China and Hong Kong volumes have yet to recover fully from the disruption that followed the removal of the EU de minimis exemption in July, but pricing has begun moving higher on several key origins.

Golden Week adds to peak-season pressure

Attention is now turning to China's National Day Golden Week (1–7 October), which follows closely behind the Mid-Autumn Festival (25–27 September) and compresses production, export handovers and freight planning into a short period.

Metro’s local partners are already reporting stronger general cargo demand from North China as shippers move goods before the holiday, while transpacific demand from Southern China is also increasing.

Available capacity and additional charter operations have so far helped contain more dramatic rate movements. However, the combination of recovering volumes, firm year-on-year pricing, higher fuel costs and the traditional Q4 uplift creates the potential for conditions to tighten further as October progresses.

Worldwide international capacity was only 4% higher year on year in week 38, compared with an 8% increase in tonnage. Capacity also remains constrained in some markets affected by geopolitical disruption, particularly the Gulf.

Early planning for the Q4 peak

The latest figures do not point to a uniform capacity squeeze, but they do suggest that the airfreight market is entering peak season from a considerably stronger position than a year ago.

With demand building, rates already elevated year on year and conditions varying sharply between origins and trade lanes, access to the right capacity at the right time will become increasingly important through the final quarter.

Metro's global airfreight network, carrier relationships and flexible routing options help customers secure capacity and respond quickly as market conditions change. 

If you have time-critical, high-value or peak-season shipments planned for Q4, talk to our airfreight team about protecting capacity and keeping cargo moving.

HKG port

Asian port congestion could disrupt supply chains well into 2027

Sep 30, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Severe congestion across Asian container ports is tying up millions of TEU of capacity, driving schedule reliability to a four-year low and raising the prospect of disruption continuing well into 2027.

Repeated typhoons, strong Asian export demand and congestion spreading between ports have created disruption comparable in scale with the peak of the pandemic.

While conditions should improve as weather disruption eases, analysis of previous congestion cycles suggests clearing the accumulated vessel and container backlogs could take considerably longer.

Sea-Intelligence estimates it could take up to ten months for congestion to return to the levels recorded in June 2025, potentially leaving supply chains dealing with the consequences through the first half of next year.

Reliability falls as capacity gets trapped

The immediate impact is already visible in global shipping schedules. Schedule reliability fell another 5.9 percentage points in Sea-Intelligence's September report to 49.9%, its lowest level since September 2022 and the second consecutive significant monthly decline.

Late vessels are also getting later. Average delays increased by 0.6 days to 6.81 days, the highest since March 2022 and almost two days longer than a year earlier.

Estimates of the amount of capacity affected vary according to methodology and timing, but indicate the scale of the problem. Around 3.9m TEU is currently caught up in global port congestion, returning congestion volumes to levels last experienced in 2022.

Sea-Intelligence calculates the disruption is absorbing around 8.5% of the global containership fleet, effectively removing millions of TEU of usable vessel capacity from the market.

That helps explain why the industry's substantial influx of new vessels has yet to translate fully into available capacity. Ships waiting outside ports or arriving significantly behind schedule cannot provide the capacity their nominal deployment suggests.

Disruption spreads across Asian networks

Weather has been an important catalyst. Repeated typhoons have reduced effective port capacity at major Chinese gateways at the same time as strong export demand has increased pressure on terminals.

But congestion rarely remains confined to the port where the original disruption occurs.

Late vessels arrive together at subsequent calls, creating bunching and additional terminal pressure. Carriers may respond by omitting badly affected ports, but that can simply transfer containers and vessel calls to alternative gateways and transhipment hubs.

Some of that pressure is already shifting towards Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent.

The distortion can also make scheduled capacity figures misleading. Asia–North Europe deployment around Golden Week reached around 1.5m TEU over four weeks, approximately 27% higher year on year and 60% above pre-pandemic averages.

Rather than representing a straightforward increase in available space, part of that apparent capacity reflects vessels bunching as disrupted schedules overlap.

Rates reflect shrinking effective capacity

The consequences are particularly visible within Asia. Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index has reached record territory as Golden Week demand meets restricted effective capacity. Shanghai–Laem Chabang increased 22% in its latest assessment, while Shanghai–Jakarta rose 12%.

The impact extends further afield. Asia–US rates remain close to pandemic-era records, while charter markets are also signalling exceptionally tight vessel availability.

This creates an important distinction for shippers: deployed capacity and usable capacity are not the same thing.

Even as carriers receive new vessels, congestion can absorb that additional capacity before customers see the benefit through improved availability, reliability or pricing.

The landside challenge could last longer

Port congestion also has consequences beyond vessel schedules. For individual shippers, reliability ultimately depends on when cargo actually becomes available and reaches its destination. Vessel bunching can create sudden surges in container volumes through terminals, rail connections, depots and road networks.

Those supporting networks cannot expand as quickly as vessel capacity.

Terminal, rail and road infrastructure requires long-term investment, while operators also need to maintain high asset utilisation. That leaves less spare capacity available to absorb sudden spikes following weather disruption or vessel bunching.

The result can be a second wave of delay after a vessel reaches port, particularly where terminals and inland networks are already operating close to capacity.

Chinese New Year becomes the next pressure point

The length of the potential recovery is therefore significant.

Based on recovery patterns following the pandemic and the initial Red Sea disruption, Sea-Intelligence estimates congestion could take six to eight months simply to return to conditions seen at the end of 2025, and 10 months to return to the much lower levels recorded in June 2025.

That timeline extends beyond Golden Week and potentially into the next major Asian shipping peak.

Chinese New Year falls on 6 February 2027, meaning the traditional pre-holiday cargo rush could arrive before networks have fully cleared today's disruption.

For shippers planning Q4 movements and early 2027 supply chains, advance bookings, realistic transit assumptions and flexibility around routing and gateways could therefore remain important well beyond the current congestion peak.

Keeping cargo moving when networks tighten

Metro combines established global carrier relationships with extensive origin, destination and inland capabilities, giving our teams the flexibility to respond when congestion disrupts established shipping patterns.

Through consolidation services, alternative carrier and routing options, gateway selection and coordinated inland transport, we can assess the complete movement rather than relying on a single service or routing.

With Asian congestion potentially affecting capacity and schedules well into 2027, talk to Metro about upcoming movements and the options available to protect space, maintain visibility and build greater flexibility into your supply chain.

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