Global air cargo demand and rates are strengthening ahead of the traditional peak season, with rising volumes, firm pricing and higher fuel costs creating a more robust market as October begins.
The latest TAC Index and WorldACD data point to increasing momentum as the industry moves towards its busiest months, although conditions continue to vary significantly by trade lane.
The global Baltic Air Freight Index gained a further 0.6% in the seven days to 28 September, extending a series of modest weekly increases and leaving rates nearly 22% above the same point last year.
Meanwhile, WorldACD recorded a fourth consecutive weekly increase in global chargeable weight in week 38, with tonnages rising 2% week on week and 8% year on year.
Demand builds across major origin markets
The underlying demand picture is increasingly positive. Asia Pacific remained one of the strongest contributors, with origin tonnages 11% higher year on year. North American volumes increased 14% week on week following the Labor Day dip and were 8% above last year's level, while European origin volumes were 6% higher year on year.
Rates are also substantially above 2025 levels. WorldACD's average worldwide full-market rate was 24% higher year on year in week 38, while average spot rates were 33% higher.
Asia Pacific spot rates were 30% above last year, with Europe up 29% and North America 34%.
TAC Index data for the following week suggests that firmness continued into the end of September, with its global index extending its year-on-year increase to 21.7%.
The backdrop is being reinforced by significantly higher fuel costs. TAC reported that jet fuel prices were 106% above their level a year earlier by 25 September, adding another source of upward pressure as the market approaches peak.
Asia markets gather momentum
Asia is likely to be central to the developing peak-season picture. TAC recorded a 3% weekly increase in its Hong Kong outbound index during the week to 28 September, taking it 20.6% above last year. Rates from India also increased strongly, while China-Europe pricing continued to firm as the market adjusted following changes affecting low-value parcel traffic.
WorldACD similarly recorded further increases in Asia Pacific-Europe spot rates during week 38, including gains from mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.
The transpacific remains particularly strong. Asia Pacific-US demand was 13% higher year on year, including significant growth from South Korea, Japan and China. Average spot rates on the trade were broadly stable week on week but approximately 40% above their level a year earlier.
The picture towards Europe is more mixed. China and Hong Kong volumes have yet to recover fully from the disruption that followed the removal of the EU de minimis exemption in July, but pricing has begun moving higher on several key origins.
Golden Week adds to peak-season pressure
Attention is now turning to China's National Day Golden Week (1–7 October), which follows closely behind the Mid-Autumn Festival (25–27 September) and compresses production, export handovers and freight planning into a short period.
Metro’s local partners are already reporting stronger general cargo demand from North China as shippers move goods before the holiday, while transpacific demand from Southern China is also increasing.
Available capacity and additional charter operations have so far helped contain more dramatic rate movements. However, the combination of recovering volumes, firm year-on-year pricing, higher fuel costs and the traditional Q4 uplift creates the potential for conditions to tighten further as October progresses.
Worldwide international capacity was only 4% higher year on year in week 38, compared with an 8% increase in tonnage. Capacity also remains constrained in some markets affected by geopolitical disruption, particularly the Gulf.
Early planning for the Q4 peak
The latest figures do not point to a uniform capacity squeeze, but they do suggest that the airfreight market is entering peak season from a considerably stronger position than a year ago.
With demand building, rates already elevated year on year and conditions varying sharply between origins and trade lanes, access to the right capacity at the right time will become increasingly important through the final quarter.
Metro's global airfreight network, carrier relationships and flexible routing options help customers secure capacity and respond quickly as market conditions change.
If you have time-critical, high-value or peak-season shipments planned for Q4, talk to our airfreight team about protecting capacity and keeping cargo moving.
