Shanghai

Shanghai supply chain update– Lockdown extended indefinitely

The lifting of COVID restrictions in parts of Shanghai this week has been postponed after nearly 20,000 new cases were reported on Monday.

While the primary port terminals and airport remain open, most workers are in locked-down neighbourhoods and the impact on production and inland logistics is severely limiting supply chain operations.

With limited goods available to despatch, demand for air cargo capacity out of Shanghai is decreasing quickly, with carriers cancelling flights. Despite the drop in demand, reduction in ground handling capability and capacity has seen air freight rate indexes to North Europe increase by 43% since the start of the recent outbreaks. Shanghai Airport is effectively closed for cargo receipt and despatch and is being redirected to Zhengzhou Xinzheng International airport nearly 1000 kilometres away.

The world’s largest sea container port remains open 24 hours a day and even though it is operating within a “closed-loop” bubble, which requires workers to stay on-site, increasing numbers are quarantined. While the closure of many warehouses, the drop in manufacturing and serious disruptions to trucking have significantly reduced the availability of goods and the port’s throughput, which reportedly has resulted in queues of in excess of 300 vessels, as of today, awaiting berth outside the port.

A flash survey on the impact of COVID on business in Shanghai found:

99% of respondents had been impacted by the recent outbreak

86% of manufacturers reported that their supply chains had been disrupted

82% of manufacturers reported slowed or reduced production

54% of respondents have decreased 2022 revenue projections 

The soaring number of cases in Shanghai has restricted driver testing capacity and with many drivers from neighbouring provinces reluctant to enter Shanghai, because of the risk of having to quarantine on their return, haulage capacity has been slashed.

The deteriorating COVID situation has raised concerns over worsening port congestion elsewhere in China, with Yantian and Shekou experiencing longer waiting times.

According to Bloomberg, there are 174 vessels anchored or loading across South China – the most since the region was affected by typhoons in October - representing 14% of the total fleet.

What was expected to be a relatively short situation is now becoming a much bigger concern to production by manufacturers, logistics infrastructure and ultimately the global economy with even greater challenges in what was an already challenging environment. This is creating issues both at a local level and on a much wider scale as detailed in this recent news article published by the BBC which is worth reading - China lockdowns 

With over 80% of manufacturers reporting disrupted supply chains and reduced production, factories may not meet planned delivery schedules. This is why we recommend checking with your vendors, to clarify the status of your orders.

Metro’s cloud-based supply chain management platform, MVT, simplifies the most demanding global trading regimes, by making every milestone and participant in the supply chain transparent and controllable.

With end-to-end visibility across the extended supply network and global control down to individual SKU level, it is simple to adapt to external developments. Changing supply lines, managing existing or adding new vendors, monitoring product flows and outbound order data, from any location.

To discuss how our technology could support your supply chain, please contact Simon George our Technical Solutions Director or Elliot Carlile.

Coronavirus impacts air and sea freight

The sea and air alternative from China

China to Europe rail freight services have grown massively since the advent of the COVID pandemic, with volumes surging 29% last year. But with services transiting Russia and Belarus sanctioned and the Ukraine route halted, the equivalent of 1.46 million TEU needs alternative solutions.

Trains are still running along the Trans-Siberian route, but Russian Railways has been sanctioned so bookings have been suspended, with much cargo diverting to slower ocean services.

While cargo is not directly targeted, the uncertainty surrounding sanctions against Russia and Belarus means there is a very real risk of shipments getting stuck in either country during transit and there is no evidence yet of the impact of sanctions on insurance and settlements.

The China-Europe rail freight service from Shanghai has reportedly seen a 40% drop in bookings and its frequency has been reduced, while the Silk Road freight train from Vietnam, which operates via Zhengzhou, has been suspended. 

Alternative rail routes operate below the Trans-Siberian, through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey via the Caspian Sea, or Romania via the Black Sea.

These routes mean longer transit times however, and could potentially face increased congestion, with seven or eight reloading processes before arrival in Europe.

The southern lane via Baku and Istanbul is likely to be a popular choice for rail enthusiasts, departing from Xian, with a mooted transit of 35 days to Germany, although this is likely to be longer and another 5+ days need to be added up to arrival terminal.

In practice sea freight rates are less and the transit time to main European ports faster and arguably safer than rail. Any substantial volume shift from rail to sea is likely to increase congestion, with demand increasing over 5% on an already over-subscribed trade route.

The effective alternative

Avoid the uncertainties and inefficiencies of sea and rail, by combining effective and reliable sea services, with dependable and rapid air cargo services, for reliable time-sensitive freight solutions from Asia.

Metro sea/air services operate via established and proven hubs in Singapore and Dubai, together with a selection of secondary transhipment hubs, to provide greater resilience against disruption and additional routing options for speed and cost options.

The most effective sea/air solutions use feeder vessels to move the freight to where the most appropriate air freight capacity and routing is available, at the most attractive cost. 

The first leg of transit is undertaken in a conventional ocean freight container, often on low-cost feeder vessels, but always on a direct and much shorter transit than would be the case on an all-ocean service.

This reduces the impact of incidents at ports and avoids delays, because short-sea transits have not been impacted by the service disruption and cost increases seen on deep-sea services.

Singapore and Dubai are two of the biggest pure freighter and passenger freighter airports globally, which means they retain a relatively high number of passenger flights, and consequently critical belly-hold capacity.

We continue to receive daily booking and departure requests and have the capacity, ability and reliability needed to deliver within timelines and to your deadlines.

We operate regular services from all major areas of manufacture; with Singapore servicing the Far East and South East Asia trades and Dubai geographically well located to serve suppliers in the Indian Sub-continent and further afield. Expert solutions that work, and have done for decades, when the market needs them – as they do now.

We recommend sea/air as a standard component in your supply chain toolkit, to plug gaps and fix delays. Elliot Carlie and Andy Brooks head the sea/air team and are available to discuss your situation and requirements.

Blanking is biting

Lines grow capacity and now cancel sailings

The container shipping lines have been increasing their capacity out of Asia, based on strong demand expectations through 2021 and while the increase of deployed capacity has extended, at least through the first few months of 2022, lines are now reacting to short-term demand fluctuation with cancelled sailings and surcharges.

Shipping lines expanded their capacity through 2021 with the deployment of new vessels, the chartering of additional capacity and the addition of hundreds of thousands of new containers to the global fleet.

In the 12 weeks following Chinese New Year, capacity will have grown 20% year-over-year on the Asia to US West Coast trade lane (40% on the East Coast!) and 19.3% on Asia-North Europe, which pundits insist is a firm indication that carriers are expecting no slowdown in demand.

Continuing congestion across ports in Asia, North America, and North Europe, in fact globally on most global trade lanes - and their inland distribution networks - has slowed the working time of vessels and the turnaround of containers, which has had the same impact as effectively removing 10% of global capacity. A conundrum currently that is highlighted with the market impact – which in theory should not be happening. But it is.

It was in an attempt to ease the space and equipment shortage, that carriers ordered hundreds of thousands of new containers and hoovered up every piece of spare shipping capacity they could find last year.

CMA CGM increased its total shipping capacity by 5.8%, Maersk 6.4% and Hapag-Lloyd 4.1%, to a total of more than 10 million TEU, while together, the major carriers acquired a total of 266 second-hand ships.

The carriers expected demand from Asia to Europe to remain strong in the first half, followed by a gradual easing through the rest of the year and not much change in demand to congested US ports and inland logistics before next year. That was of course before Russia invaded Ukraine.

And yet the barest hint of demand softening, as China’s latest lockdowns delay production and cargo availability, has carriers preparing to blank sailings in anticipation of low demand. A useful tool to have in your box.

2M carriers Maersk and MSC have announced three further void sailings for April, attributed to the “ongoing challenging market situation”.

In addition to more cancelled sailings, significant bunker surcharge increases should be expected from the shipping lines, together with rising haulage costs. Reports in the press suggest that ocean carriers in North Europe will add a 25% fuel surcharge to their line hauls from the 1st April.

Global freight operations are transforming, as the intense and sustained pressure that supply chains have been subjected to, expose weaknesses and inefficiencies.

Metro negotiate rate and volume agreements with a wide range of carriers across all three alliances, which means we can access the widest pool of equipment and offer shippers the biggest range of service offerings, port-pairings and rates.

Please contact Elliot Carlile to learn how we can support your supply chains, even in the most challenging market conditions.

ships at anchor

China ship queues growing with further disruption to schedules

Despite key Chinese ports, including Shenzhen and Shanghai, operating normally, land-side logistics disruption, in the wake of the latest Covid-related lockdowns is inevitable and vessel queues are growing.

Queues of container ships outside major Chinese ports are lengthening, despite ports continuing to function normally - though with limited capacity - because many of the most profound problems lie on the landslide, with the strict Covid measures hampering trucking productivity, making it difficult to get cargo to and from the ports.

Vessel waiting times at Shenzhen terminals has grown longer, with an average wait of three to four days at Yantian International Container Terminal (YICT) and five to seven days at Shekou Container Terminal.

The spread of the highly-infectious Omicron variant this month has led to movement controls across China, which is debilitating transport operations and the ability of drivers to collect and deliver. So while ports remain open and vessels are continuing to dock, congestion is building up and some container ships are re-routing to avoid expected delays.

The current developments around Covid lockdowns in China and sanctions imposed on Russia is creating more supply chain uncertainty and congestion will go up as delays extend, which means we will work even harder to get our customers’ cargo moving around those obstacles.

Shenzhen city reopened on Sunday and while the Yantian container terminal continued operating throughout the lockdown, the impact on ocean freight is due to trucking restrictions when picking up from outside Shenzhen, or in a locked-down area.

Even with ports open, the lack of terminal handling staff and expected trucking delays are compelling some carriers to skip calls, or accept they will keep vessels waiting.

Maersk will skip calls at Shenzhen on three sailings later this week after the port imposed restrictions on cargo exports to limit congestion in the container yards at its western terminals.

Trucking capacity between Shenzhen and nearby cities is estimated to have dropped by 20%, or even more in some regions, due to the need for drivers to produce a negative test, which means longer delivery times and a possible rise in transport costs such as a detour fee or a highway fee.

Cross-border trucks between Shenzhen and Hong Kong are also affected, with capacity dropping by at least 70% as authorities impose tougher quarantine and testing requirements on drivers, with long waiting times, leading to transport by ocean to overcome the limited truck capacity. 

In Qingdao, terminals are still operating, but port productivity has dropped due to tightened coronavirus measures, with more than 70 vessels waiting to berth, double the number in February.

In Shanghai, which was said to be on the brink of lockdown and already imposed restrictions on passenger flights, warehouses and terminals operate as normal, but require the driver to be tested within 48 hours before delivery which is limiting trucking capacity and caused some shipments to be moved out of Ningbo.

Meanwhile, there have been reports of lengthening ship queues outside Chinese ports, with 262 vessels waiting outside Shanghai and Ningbo, up from 243 last week.

Supply chains have never faced so many challenges and with local conditions changing rapidly it is critical that you have the support of dependable partners. 

Metro will always share the latest news and most important developments, providing you with the best alternatives and options, to keep your supply chain optimised. 

For further information and to discuss your ongoing requirements please contact Elliot Carlile.

We continue to monitor the situation daily, which is very fluid, to update our advisory…….please look out for our announcements, or speak with your Metro account manager for the latest information.