US trade policy is once again shifting, and this time the uncertainty is centred not just on what duties apply, but how long they will last and what might be added next.
Importers face a confusing mix of “temporary” measures that refuse to go away, new proposals linked to forced labour concerns, and the ever-present risk of retaliatory action from major trading partners.
A “temporary” tariff that keeps dragging on
The 10% blanket tariff on most US imports was introduced as an emergency measure, but it has quickly become a structural cost in many supply chains.
Despite a trade court ruling against the measure, success in the ongoing appeals process means the surcharge remains in force, leaving businesses paying higher duties today without a clear view of whether, or when, it might be rolled back.
That creates a planning dilemma. Tariffs are real and immediate, yet the long-term framework is unresolved, and there is a possibility that some duties could eventually be refunded if legal challenges succeed.
Compounding this, there are indications that tariff levels may increase further in the near term, adding another layer of complexity for forecasting, pricing and contract negotiations.
New forced-labour duties widen exposure
Alongside the existing blanket measure, proposals for forced-labour-related tariffs are poised to reshape the risk landscape.
If implemented, these duties could add up to 12.5% on imports from a broad group of economies, including key partners such as the EU and UK. Crucially, these measures would apply at a country level rather than being targeted at specific non-compliant supply chains, meaning even businesses with robust labour and ethical sourcing standards could still face higher landed costs purely due to origin.
This raises the prospect of multiple tariff layers applying to the same product, significantly inflating total duty paid and forcing companies to reconsider how, where and from whom they source.
Rethinking sourcing and compliance
The combined effect of existing and proposed tariffs is already driving change in global sourcing and production strategies.
Businesses are:
- Reassessing sourcing locations and production footprints to reduce tariff exposure.
- Exploring tariff engineering opportunities, including product reclassification and component changes where appropriate and compliant.
- Tightening due diligence on labour practices and supply chain transparency as forced-labour measures gain momentum.
At the same time, the risk of retaliatory tariffs from affected partners adds further complexity, particularly for companies operating multi-directional flows between the US, Europe and other key markets.
Planning when the rules keep changing
With legal appeals ongoing and new policy proposals still moving through the system, the US tariff landscape is likely to remain fluid through the second half of the year and beyond.
Key variables include:
- The final outcome of the appeals process and the future of the 10% blanket tariff.
- The timing, scope and country coverage of forced-labour-related duties.
- Potential countermeasures from other economies and their impact on cross-border trade.
In this environment, waiting for clarity is not a strategy. Businesses need to understand their exposure now, scenario-plan for different tariff outcomes, and build flexibility into their supply chains, contracts and pricing structures.
How Metro helps you stay ahead
Metro teams on both sides of the Atlantic work with importing and exporting customers across multiple sectors to overcome exactly this type of uncertainty, combining customs expertise, regulatory insight and technical brokerage solutions to keep goods moving while controlling cost and risk.
We help importers:
- Map current and potential tariff exposure at product and lane level.
- Evaluate alternative sourcing, routing and customs strategies that balance cost, speed and compliance.
- Integrate trade, customs and logistics planning so tariff changes do not automatically translate into supply chain disruption.
If your business is exposed to US imports and you want to protect a customer or turn a volatile tariff environment into a managed risk rather than a threat, EMAIL our Managing Director, Andrew Smith, directly. The most effective responses to policy change are the ones you prepare before the next round affects your supply chain.
