A year without reset: why 2025 changed how shippers plan for 2026

If 2025 was expected to mark a return to supply-chain stability, it didn’t arrive in a neat, predictable way. But for many shippers, the year still delivered something valuable: a clearer view of what “good” looks like in modern supply chains — not perfection, but performance under pressure.

Rather than a single crisis, 2025 was defined by overlapping operational and regulatory themes. The shippers that fared best were those that built flexibility into planning, stayed close to market signals, and worked with partners able to solve problems quickly when conditions shifted.

Congestion set the tone early. Chinese New Year volumes coincided with tariff-driven front-loading, and ports with little slack quickly felt the strain. In Europe, delays were often persistent, reflecting the reality that resilience today depends as much on inland networks and labour availability as it does on ocean capacity.

At the same time, capacity remained available overall, but execution was increasingly shaped by service changes and blank sailings. For shippers, the challenge was less about whether space existed and more about ensuring schedules, routings and inventory plans remained aligned with what would actually move.

Trade policy uncertainty also played a bigger role in planning. Tariff threats influenced decisions before any rules changed, rewarding shippers that could scenario-plan, protect service levels and keep options open across suppliers and routings. Alongside this, incremental near-shoring and supplier diversification continued, strengthening resilience, albeit with greater complexity across trade lanes.

Routing assumptions remained fluid too. Ongoing uncertainty around Suez transits showed how quickly “default” routings can change, and why contingency planning now needs to be routine rather than occasional. Meanwhile, labour disruption and workforce shortages across logistics hubs reinforced the importance of having practical alternatives, from gateway options to inland capacity plans.

One of the most significant shifts of the year came in air freight and e-commerce, as the US scrapped de minimis exemptions and enforcement tightened. The result was a sharper focus on documentation quality, customs accuracy and compliance readiness, themes that gathered pace in Europe too, as pressure built for the EU and UK to follow suit, with new obligations expected from 2026.

Technology brought both opportunity and a clear competitive divide. AI planning tools, automation and real-time visibility moved into live operations, helping some businesses improve forecasting, inventory positioning and warehouse throughput. But uneven adoption widened the gap between supply chains that can operationalise new tools and those still stuck in pilot mode. At the same time, growing digital connectivity underlined the need to treat cyber resilience as an operational priority, not just an IT concern.

As 2025 closes, the outlook for 2026 is not simply about bracing for disruption — it’s about building on the lessons learned. The strongest supply chains are shifting from pure cost optimisation to execution, resilience, compliance and control, designing operations that perform reliably in imperfect conditions.

The issues that defined 2025 and the capabilities shippers will lean on in 2026

1. Congestion became the backdrop, not the exception
   What worked: better lead-time planning, smarter gateway choices and stronger inland contingency.

2. Capacity existed — but only on carriers’ terms
   What worked: flexible bookings, active carrier management and early planning around schedule shifts.

3. Trade policy uncertainty distorted flows before rules changed
   What worked: scenario planning, optionality in sourcing and routing, and faster decision cycles.

4. Supply chains rebalanced incrementally — and unevenly
   What worked: diversification programmes built over time, not reactive one-off moves.

5. Routing assumptions weakened
   What worked: routings reviewed more frequently, with workable alternatives ready to deploy.

6. Labour disruption proved structural
   What worked: realistic buffers and strong coordination across port, inland and warehouse flows.

7. Overcapacity failed to bring stability
   What worked: focusing on service reliability and execution, not just headline rate levels.

8. De minimis collapsed — with immediate air freight impact
   What worked: stronger customs governance, data quality and compliance readiness.

9. AI entered operations, but unevenly
   What worked: moving from pilots to practical deployment in planning, inventory and warehouses.

10. Cyber risk became a supply-chain issue
    What worked: tighter controls on third-party access and clearer operational resilience planning.

Taken together, 2025 showed that supply chains don’t need perfect conditions to perform — but they do need the right partners, processes and visibility to stay in control when the environment changes.

Metro will continue supporting shippers in 2026, helping them plan and protect their supply chains in a more complex operating landscape — from congestion and routing risk management to air and ocean capacity planning, compliance readiness and end-to-end visibility.

If you’re reviewing your 2026 supply-chain strategy, the Metro team can help you stress-test your network and build resilience where it matters most.

EMAIL Metro’s managing director, Andrew Smith to discuss your 2026 planning priorities.