Transatlantic Sea Freight Steadies

The North Europe to US, transatlantic trade-lane, is settling into a more predictable rhythm, after a trade deal and took much of the guesswork out of export planning, while carriers have lifted reliability and held blank sailings to minimal levels. 

The result is a market where prices are easing but services are firmer, though the traditional peak looks unlikely.

Westbound volumes have risen 2% year on year, defying earlier expectations of heavy front-loading, while the slots deployed  by carriers are 7% higher than 2024, giving buyers more choice and competitive pricing.

On the reliability front, Europe toUS on-time performance has surged to 52% in Q2 vs Q1, with August the best month since October 2023.

Pricing pressure without panic

While price benchmarks are trending down they are not collapsing. 

Long-term deals signed over the prior three months are down under a third, while average spot rates fell 20% over the last three months. However, despite the softer prices, carriers have not resorted to large-scale blankings, a signal that underlying demand remains sound and that utilisation on sailing vessels is still healthy.

Service quality has moved decisively in the right direction. On-time performance on North Europe to US routes has improved from 24% in January to 58%, while the Mediterranean to US leg has nudged up from 24% to 36%. 

One alliance has consistently posted 92% reliability on the transatlantic in H1, far ahead of non-alliance services and standalone carriers (36%), underlining the advantage of integrated rotations. The challenge now is keeping performance high through winter weather and any land-side pinch points.

With inventories in better balance and retailers expecting low growth for winter, the consensus is no classic peak in late 2025. Expect stable demand, ample capacity and rates in range into year-end unless weather or labour disruptions intrude.

What shippers should do now

• Prioritise services with proven on-time performance and shorter port strings to reduce dwell and downstream buffer stock.
• Use today’s attractive rates to book core volumes and keep tactical headroom on spot.
• Backhaul eastbound pricing remains sensitive so secure equipment and minimise roll risk.
• The policy environment is calmer, but not static; maintain landed-cost models that can absorb incremental fees without re-quoting.

With long-established ocean carrier relationships, our team is helping clients secure space, optimise rates, and keep high-priority cargo moving on transatlantic lanes.

If your business depends on dependable transatlantic trade flows, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to discover how expert guidance and tailored solutions can keep your supply chain agile and cost-effective, whatever the market brings.